Paddy KO/TKO Rd 3.
I just hope this fight hits the ground at some point. I expect Paddy to pull this one off, though. Vastly superior striker with knockout power, proven five-round cardio, and he's competed against higher tiers of competition. Despite being a primary grappler himself, Leavitt showed against Claudio Puelles that his own defensive grappling is... questionable at best. He got put on his back and controlled for for ten minutes of that fight. Trey Ogden also held his own in the grappling exchanges against him. Paddy should be capable of at least making the grappling exchanges close enough that striking is the deciding factor, where he holds all the cards.
Paddy hasn't been submitted in nearly a decade (fifth pro bout, back when he was fighting at Bantamweight and frequently missing weight). BUT dominant chain-wrestlers (like Narimani and Bak) who are able to use boxing to set up their takedowns while staying defensively sound against his active guard have been able to shut down and grind out Decisions against Pimblett in the past. With his solid BJJ top game and sheer size for the weight class, I suppose I could see a world where Leavitt narrowly does the same in a three-round fight... but I wouldn't bet on it. His striking is very basic (predicated largely around low kicks) and his takedown game, while improved, isn't particularly refined. Not to mention Pimblett has likely polished his skills by a margin as well since those losses.