Elections Official US 2024 Presidential Election Megathread: Trump v Harris

[BFoe]

yeah it was evident why he was so insistant on his supporters only voting at the polls and he was campaigning off that for a whole year prior to the election because his plan was to try to get the courts to throw out all of the mail in ballots in states he needed to win.

it was never about trying to find any fraud. he knew just as much as his own attorney general and everybody else around him that it was a fair election and he lost. it was all about trying to suppress the votes and try to steal the election. unfortunately for him, he didn't bring any evidence of any crimes with him to court, so he wasn't able to be able to give any judge a valid reason as to why they should disenfranchise the voters and throw out millions of their votes.

Yup, and I could tell he was going to attack mail-in ballots, so I made sure to vote in person. The whole fake elector thing I will admit I did not see coming at all. He really exceeded my expectations when it came to his criminality.

 

[Daverisimo]

So, I have to say that of all the polls I've seen, the ones I distrust the most are ones that have Trump winning bigly in Arizona. This is anecdotal, and I live in a slightly bluer than average area in the state, but this is the first time I've lived in the same place for two election cycles since I've been eligible to vote, so this is the first time I can actually make a comparison.

I think that enthusiasm for Trump is way down in comparison to 2020. I'm seeing a lot fewer yard signs up for Trump, and I've not seen a single one of the dumb fucking MAGA caravans that were ubiquitous in 2020. Combine that with prop 139 being on the ballot, and the fact that Lake is getting crushed in the polls by Gallego, I think that Harris will massively outperform her poll numbers here. If it were still Biden running then maybe I could see a lot of people splitting the ticket and voting Trump, Gallego, and yes on 139, but Harris actually has a net-positive favorability rating (unlike Trump), so I definitely don't see Harris losing here by the margins some polls are suggesting. She might still lose here, but I'll be very surprised if it's not close.

 

[nostradumbass]

Early numbers in PA are hard to read right now. I don't think 2020 can be used as a barometer. It was in peak covid times which pushed mail in voting numbers far above what they normally would be. Then you had republicans pushing the narrative that only day of in person voting was acceptable. This election cycle the republicans have been more receptive to early voting and mail voting so we will see how much of that eats into their day of voting.

Republicans also closed gap in number of registered voters by a large number this year. PA should hopefully be called by election night. With having two elections to get better at counting mail in ballots, this year should go faster.

PA still isn't allowed to start counting early votes any earlier, so I wouldn't count on getting the results there or Wisconsin on election night, but Michigan can start counting them earlier, so might get that result the earliest of the 3. Early voting not looking great for Harris there either. Dem early voting is only by 3, with 11% being independent.

I suppose the hope for Harris is that gains in early voting will canibalize election day voting for Trump, but almost for sure it won't help her own tally because dems aren't likely to suddenly change their voting habits and show up en masse for in person election day voting. She could also hope a significant number of the republican ballots are democrats who switched registration to vote against Trump in the primary, but that's a few thousand, not 700,000, and most dems on here denied that existed at all when they were trying to convince themselves that it was a huge Trump supporter who tried to assassinate him

 

[Jacket time]

Rogan podcast hosting Elon right now

 

[nonoob]

they love him precisely because he is a norm breaking, divisive candidate who promises to wield power against the outgroups of his base.

Do "outgroups of his base" here illegally, (that left their country to steal the tax-paid Harris Sanctuary City hotel housing) and scream they "HATE America" help the country?

Sanctuary Cities New York City, Chicago, and Other Ones have given every criminal there Full Protection to prey on US citizens, while budgets are stripped bare paying for Non-Americans.

Harris Has Paid Out Billions of US Taxpayer Dollars, Always Putting Non-Citizens Above Americans.

Every Harris Vote Is A Vote Against America.

 

[AWilder]

So, I have to say that of all the polls I've seen, the ones I distrust the most are ones that have Trump winning bigly in Arizona. This is anecdotal, and I live in a slightly bluer than average area in the state, but this is the first time I've lived in the same place for two election cycles since I've been eligible to vote, so this is the first time I can actually make a comparison.

I think that enthusiasm for Trump is way down in comparison to 2020. I'm seeing a lot fewer yard signs up for Trump, and I've not seen a single one of the dumb fucking MAGA caravans that were ubiquitous in 2020. Combine that with prop 139 being on the ballot, and the fact that Lake is getting crushed in the polls by Gallego, I think that Harris will massively outperform her poll numbers here. If it were still Biden running then maybe I could see a lot of people splitting the ticket and voting Trump, Gallego, and yes on 139, but Harris actually has a net-positive favorability rating (unlike Trump), so I definitely don't see Harris losing here by the margins some polls are suggesting. She might still lose here, but I'll be very surprised if it's not close.

I agree the enthusiasm is a fraction of what it was in 16 and 20. I live in NC and all the big trump signs on farms are gone. I think the soy bean farmers won't forgive him for his stupid tarrif war.

 

[nostradumbass]

But still outnumbering republicans 2-1.
There was a pandemic in 2020, I wouldn’t necessarily expect the same numbers of mail-in ballots as there were then.

Not sure I'd count on dems suddenly distrusting mail in voting and deciding they have to switch it up and show up on election day. Republicans ballot returns are about the same place they were in 2020, while dems are way down.

Dems have returned about 400,000 more this year, and it was 1.2 million more in 2020.

 

[AWilder]

 

[syct23]

Oh trump endorsed that corn dog alright,

Full Throated…

 

[Possum Jenkins]

It’s foolish, and they’re going to set themselves up to lose tomorrow. I’ve said it before, I’m pretty moderate and a little right of center. I think most swing voters are in that same area. A moderate, well spoken, republican would’ve been a lock.

He wouldn't though, that was my point.

Every moderate, well spoken Republican in the primaries got zero traction and was looked at as a cuck.

 

[Black9]

Kamala Harris will be doing her LAST rally ontop of the "Rocky Steps" in Philly ,Pennsylvania tonight.

Hell of a way to end a hell of a 3 month campaign.

 

[emefer]

PA still isn't allowed to start counting early votes any earlier

Yes they are. Allowed to start when polls open as opposed to when polls closed, as they were in 2020

 

[BFoe]

Not sure I'd count on dems suddenly distrusting mail in voting and deciding they have to switch it up and show up on election day. Republicans ballot returns are about the same place they were in 2020, while dems are way down.

Dems have returned about 400,000 more this year, and it was 1.2 million more in 2020.

I don’t think it’s a matter of “suddenly distrusting” mail-in voting. I think it’s a combination of not needing to use them as much due to no pandemic, and learning from past experience that Mail-in ballots are more susceptible to attacks from Trump.

Again, we are outpacing Republicans in PA 2 to 1 in early voting. And when it comes to newly registered voters, the largest number are female democrats, followed by male democrats, and then male republicans.
All indications are that this a tight race so I’m not going to be overconfident, but I am thinking Dems are winning PA.

 

[Gas121]

Just lol at Kamala yesterday claiming she’ll end the war in Gaza and it’s devastating what’s happening. No shit Sherlock, you’ve been VP and allowed it to happen, and now all of a sudden you’re interested in talking tough about it LOL.

The freaking nerve.. It happened all under your watch.

 

[Misfit23]

this election be like



Vs

All I get is anti trans ads on my TV. Lol.

Just lol at Kamala yesterday claiming she’ll end the war in Gaza and it’s devastating what’s happening. No shit Sherlock, you’ve been VP and allowed it to happen, and now all of a sudden you’re interested in talking tough about it LOL.

The freaking nerve.. It happened all under your watch.

Neither side is gonna do anything regarding Gaza. The USA is forever the bitch of Israel.

 

[Black9]

All I get is anti trans ads on my TV. Lol.

Same, i think they did a survey recently(Yougov) where they said 91% of Trump ads across the states were just Anti-Trans ads.

Which goes into what i believe that if literally anyone BUT Trump was running i think Republicans would have had a GREAT chance of winning if they had someone who could've stayed on message the entire time.

 

[idrankyourbeer]

PA still isn't allowed to start counting early votes any earlier, so I wouldn't count on getting the results there or Wisconsin on election night, but Michigan can start counting them earlier, so might get that result the earliest of the 3. Early voting not looking great for Harris there either. Dem early voting is only by 3, with 11% being independent.

I suppose the hope for Harris is that gains in early voting will canibalize election day voting for Trump, but almost for sure it won't help her own tally because dems aren't likely to suddenly change their voting habits and show up en masse for in person election day voting.

but they did change their voting habits in 2020 because of the pandemic. prior to 2020, election day in person voting dominated for both democrats and republicans. there's no reason why that trend wouldn't continue, seeing how the country isn't going through a pandemic anymore.

sure, looking at the trends from all the past elections in modern history it would be reasonable to say that more democrats tend to vote early than republicans and they often do it by mail. but that's about all that can really be concluded out of this because it's not a pandemic year. that's not to say that there won't be alot of democrats heading to the polls tomorrow as there always is. the turnout is still going to be huge for both parties. people are motivated to vote. there was something like 155 million or so ballots cast in 2020 and the way things are going that record is likely to be toppled, even when there is going to be a fair bit less early votes cast across the board.

 

[nostradumbass]

I don’t think it’s a matter of “suddenly distrusting” mail-in voting. I think it’s a combination of not needing to use them as much due to no pandemic, and learning from past experience that Mail-in ballots are more susceptible to attacks from Trump.

Again, we are outpacing Republicans in PA 2 to 1 in early voting. And when it comes to newly registered voters, the largest number are female democrats, followed by male democrats, and then male republicans.
All indications are that this a tight race so I’m not going to be overconfident, but I am thinking Dems are winning PA.

"Susceptible to attacks from Trump" is distrusting them, and a bit silly since Trump holds no office at all, let alone a PA state office.

And it's not 2-1, it's by about 23 points, compared to like 65 points in 2020. The new registrations don't mean a whole lot either, since DAs in at least 3 counties have said thousands of those have been dumps by dem firms in other states like Arizona, with a ridiculously high rate of what the DAs have called suspicious or outright fraudulent. Registrations don't mean much if it's not even the person registering who's sending them in.

Suspicious Pennsylvania voter registration forms linked to Arizona activist’s company

Field+Media Corps is run by Francisco Heredia, a Mesa, Arizona, councilman and a longtime voting activist in Arizona. Its efforts have been flagged before in Arizona.

www.votebeat.org

In a third Pennsylvania county conducting an investigation, Lancaster County, officials have declined to identify the group or person who submitted the 2,500 forms they are investigating. District Attorney Heather Adams, a Republican, announced at a press conference last week that roughly 60% of the applications her detectives have reviewed so far were allegedly fraudulent, while others were legitimate. She has since described “hundreds” of the applications as fraudulent, but has not given an exact number or announced any criminal charges related to the investigation.

 

[Deleted member 577981]

Just lol at Kamala yesterday claiming she’ll end the war in Gaza and it’s devastating what’s happening. No shit Sherlock, you’ve been VP and allowed it to happen, and now all of a sudden you’re interested in talking tough about it LOL.

The freaking nerve.. It happened all under your watch.

Yeah, it sucks that the vice president didnt make the decisions for the president during kamala's term as vice president.

lol. Do you guys ever practice honesty and integrity or are you totally in lockstep with Trump? The liar??

 

[syct23]

Just lol at Kamala yesterday claiming she’ll end the war in Gaza and it’s devastating what’s happening. No shit Sherlock, you’ve been VP and allowed it to happen, and now all of a sudden you’re interested in talking tough about it LOL.

The freaking nerve.. It happened all under your watch.

And as acting VP she had every right to override the acting President…