Elections Official US 2024 Presidential Election Megathread: Trump v Harris

Who is going to win?

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Islam Imamate said:
That's not really why Republicans voted for him though is it? They voted for him because they love him and they love him precisely because he is a norm breaking, divisive candidate who promises to wield power against the outgroups of his base.
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Oh it's why his base votes for him. And his base makes up enough of the party now that any opposition gets run over.

There are many within the party (or just right leaning voters that dont necessarily have party affiliation) who vote for him because they simply cannot bring themselves to vote Dem, even though they dislike Trump plenty. I couldn't do it, not even close but I wasn't about to vote Kamala either. I feel I'm more the exception within the moderate right though, more just hold their noses and vote for him than not.

My point was more that he would rather split the vote as an independent than support someone else had he lost the primary. Self over party. And thus it became a self fulfilling prophecy because it was a game of chicken nobody every could've won against him because he wasn't bluffing. He'd take it all the way, making anyone truly challenging him moot.
 
mkess101 said:
Oh it's why his base votes for him. And his base makes up enough of the party now that any opposition gets run over.

There are many within the party (or just right leaning voters that dont necessarily have party affiliation) who vote for him because they simply cannot bring themselves to vote Dem, even though they dislike Trump plenty. I couldn't do it, not even close but I wasn't about to vote Kamala either. I feel I'm more the exception within the moderate right though, more just hold their noses and vote for him than not.

My point was more that he would rather split the vote as an independent than support someone else had he lost the primary. Self over party. And thus it became a self fulfilling prophecy because it was a game of chicken nobody every could've won against him because he wasn't bluffing. He'd take it all the way, making anyone truly challenging him moot.
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Right because for Donald Trump nothing matters more than he does, not the party and not the country. And yet this is the uncontested leader of the GOP which is quite telling IMO.
 
mkess101 said:
No, because as I said Trump would've run as an independent and split the vote. The MAGA crowd would've stuck with him and you'd have zero doubt on who'd win the election. Dems in an absolute landslide. People said maybe Trump would've thrown his support and gotten the MAGA crowd behind someone else had someone risen up had they promised him a pardon but that belies what we know of Trump's ego. Wasn't happening.
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Trump is like a cancer or gangrene on the GOP and at some point you have to make the decision to excise him no matter how many voters it upsets. As we see though Trump's family is already fully in control of the RNC so maybe it's their party now but then you'd think that's going to drive away the moderate and independent voters. It's a tough spot for non-MAGA Republicans but Trump is literally dodging court cases that could send him to jail just to be able to run at all.
 
LangfordBarrow said:
Trump is like a cancer or gangrene on the GOP and at some point you have to make the decision to excise him no matter how many voters it upsets. As we see though Trump's family is already fully in control of the RNC so maybe it's their party now but then you'd think that's going to drive away the moderate and independent voters. It's a tough spot for non-MAGA Republicans but Trump is literally dodging court cases that could send him to jail just to be able to run at all.
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This is what Republicans wanted though, they have lined up behind Trump completely and shield him from accountability entirely. Congressional Republicans refused to impeach him, conservatives justices on the SCOTUS refused to apply the 14th amendment and granted him criminal immunity, and voters launched him to the top of the ticket despite the fact that he skipped out on every debate.

A Trump 2024 run could've been avoided had at any one of those junctures conservatives had the spine to stand up to Trump but they lack courage in the face of their dear leader.
 
Islam Imamate said:
Right because for Donald Trump nothing matters more than he does, not the party and not the country. And yet this is the uncontested leader of the GOP which is quite telling IMO.
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Your opinion isn’t fact and if you think it is you’re just lying
 
Islam Imamate said:
Right because for Donald Trump nothing matters more than he does, not the party and not the country. And yet this is the uncontested leader of the GOP which is quite telling IMO.
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Reince Preibus I hope you're uncomfortable wherever you are. I hope a 6 month stint as Chief of Staff was worth it to you to sell out the party. <3>
 
i wonder if these wil
BFoe said:
But still outnumbering republicans 2-1.
There was a pandemic in 2020, I wouldn’t necessarily expect the same numbers of mail-in ballots as there were then.
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there is going to be much less mail in ballots across the board now that there's no pandemic. in person voting still dominated both parties prior to that. i expect it to be more or less the same but who knows?
 
nostradumbass said:
PA has released early voting numbers, and democrat ballots are down more than 700,000 from 2020.

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Early numbers in PA are hard to read right now. I don't think 2020 can be used as a barometer. It was in peak covid times which pushed mail in voting numbers far above what they normally would be. Then you had republicans pushing the narrative that only day of in person voting was acceptable. This election cycle the republicans have been more receptive to early voting and mail voting so we will see how much of that eats into their day of voting.

Republicans also closed gap in number of registered voters by a large number this year. PA should hopefully be called by election night. With having two elections to get better at counting mail in ballots, this year should go faster.
 
idrankyourbeer said:
i wonder if these wil


there is going to be much less mail in ballots across the board now that there's no pandemic.
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Not to mention we saw how ripe for attack by Trump and the Republicans they were. Granted, Trump tried with his fake elector scheme to invalidate every Dem vote in those states, whether mail-in or not…but I feel like they are more susceptible to legal challenges.
 
BFoe said:
Not to mention we saw how ripe for attack by Trump and the Republicans they were. Granted, Trump tried with his fake elector scheme to invalidate every Dem vote on those states, whether mail-in or not…but I feel like they are more susceptible to legal challenges.
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yeah it was evident why he was so insistant on his supporters only voting at the polls and he was campaigning off that for a whole year prior to the election because his plan from the very beginning to remain in office was to try to get the courts to throw out all of the mail in ballots in states he needed to win, or prevent officials from certifying those election results.

it was never about trying to find any fraud. he knew just as much as his own attorney general and everybody else around him that it was a fair election and he lost. it was all about trying to suppress the votes and try to steal the election. unfortunately for him, he didn't bring any evidence of any crimes with him to court, so he wasn't able to be able to give any judge a valid reason as to why they should disenfranchise the voters and throw out millions of their votes.
 
High Test With da Best said:
Could have been you as one of the couple replies I got sorry if I forgot.

These changes based on current communication tech and preference are of course good to see and necessary. I'll check out the link later to see if they touch upon my topic.

Could just be their keels are too fixed to steer around a Trumpberg (so to speak, insert any candidate there) and they're not willing to factor in person-specific offsets.
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If they oversample dems it makes no difference which methods they use. If there's this hidden secret where Trump supporters are less likely to respond (truthfully) to polls it's gonna be nearly impossible to filter out as well.

I really do think they'll underestimate him a third time and if my assumption is correct that'd mean an absolute landslide.
 
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