Official UFN 86 Thread - Croatia: JDS vs Big Ben

[piglord]

EXactly my thoughts.

blachowicz, mini mouse and bones parlay at 2.35!

very high confidence that comes off, just wish i could afford to tie up my cash for longer.

 

[TimCoreCombat]

Any thoughts on Rose and Dariush?

 

[Joseph Budden]

Any thoughts on Rose and Dariush?

I love Dariush by decision

I know theres some respectable bettors around these parts that think Rose finishes Tecia, but I like Rose by decision

 

[LEMONZEST]

Chiesa is game and serious about moving up so i think this fight will be close af.

Agree with jb on dariush and rose by dec. I will probably just hit their ml tho

 

[Bork Lazer]

I don't care what the lines are, or what they become, I'm CRUSHING the Ngannou vs Blaydes fight. Ngannou is going to win, and it's not going to be close.

Blaydes is a pressure fighter with minimal striking. He plods forward, swings a few looping punches, just enough to jump into someone's range. and go for a double. He looks like a slow heavyweight wrestler. If/when he gets his opponent down - admittedly he appears to be strong - he has an iffy GNP, and VERY questionable strike-zone considering how often he goes to the back of the head.

Ngannou, meanwhile, is heavily-muscled in the upper body, with good TDD, making up for some technique issues with pure strength. He's busy in the clinch with lots of effective knees to the thigh and stomach, with good cage pressure and balance, while actively searching for a neck to crank if the opponent goes low sloppily. And that's if it even gets to the clinch, because Ngannou is way more athletic and light on his feet than Blaydes. On the outside he is a FAR superior striker than Blaydes. Ngannou has a heavy leg kick and showed a powerful overhand right that caved in Tahihi's face.

This likely ends one of two ways:
1) Blaydes dives in head first like all his fights looking for the double. Ngannou is strong and quick enough to grab the neck and get a Rothwell-esque sub.
2) Blaydes keeps trying to come in for the TD, and takes a ton of damage in doing so, whether during the approach or in the clinch. TKO for Ngannou.

I have no idea how someone can be THIS confident in a Heavyweight fight between two guys that have a combined 12 fights overall and only 1 in the UFC. Ngannou's best win was his last fight against a natural 205'er that has been KO'ed by a 185'er, Sultan Aliev (MMAMath, I know). Ngannou was taken down in that fight and controlled for most of the first round so I don't know how you could state he has good TDD. Most of his stuffed TDs came in the second round when Luis was gassed. Now he goes up against a much bigger and taller guy in Blaydes. Blaydes is a former national JUCO wrestling champion who beat Lorenzo Hood (not the greatest fighter, but still solid) in his first professional fight. Blaydes' striking may be a developing project for him but with his wrestling background, he always has that strength he can fall back on.

I see this fight going two ways. Either Ngannou lands a KO in the first few minutes or Blaydes gets him down and wears Ngannou out in the first and second, then potentially gets a KO in the third when he is tired. Blaydes has solid conditioning for a HW and when you have the wrestling credentials he has against a French HW with no wrestling background, I would put my money on Blaydes IMO. But again, I would not be shocked to see Ngannou land a big bomb while Blaydes is trying to tie him up or shoot in but thats really the only path I see for victory for him.

Side note, I hate this fight. Two of the better prospects at HW and they pit them against each other, albeit as an injury replacement but still. I would much preferred Blaydes first fight be against a Timothy Johnson or Victor Pesta type of guy but oh well. Should be a fun fight.

 

[Card]

 

[Card]

 

[Card]

Fight order

 

[Card]

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Seeing 'Big' George Foreman on the front of a sherdog article got me thinking how similar 'Big' Ben Rothwell is to him. I'm too young to know who Foreman is but I've seen videos and read about him. He wasn't exactly a technical fighter but he could take a punch and just embodied that 'HW' factor.

The Wisconsin Bear is a 6'4" 265+ lb behemoth. He's as big of a HW you'll see in the octagon in terms of girth. He'll stalk you in the cage and force you to exchange with him while absorbing your punches to dish his own. And trying to take him down has now become a threat. Like climbing a tree to escape a grizzly bear, he can still still get you.

He has an open palm style and he extends his hands out trying to welcome you to brawl with him. He stands really square too at times I feel like he just doesn't give a shit about getting hit but man that's fucking scary. At this weight class you can almost bend the rules that way. I wonder how Rothwell teaches his students to fight because obviously not everyone can fight the way he does.

Man it's crazy to even say this, but is JDS' boxing really better than Rothwells? Sure he's cleaner, smoother, faster, and a more aesthetically pleasing style but Overeem was also on paper the better striker. Ben hit him right behind the ear similar to where Hunt landed on Mir right in that critical spot. He definitely knows what he's doing and what he's aiming for. That's a kill shot.

JDS has acknowledged he wants no part of that bear-trap submission so he will avoid it and that sort of puts a hinge on how free you're able to fight in the cage. Ben is known to have a solid chin so Junior's gotta be thinking in the gym to prepare to go 5 rounds. I think I like JDS not ITD -175 I'll make that as my base play.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Seeing 'Big' George Foreman on the front of a sherdog article got me thinking how similar 'Big' Ben Rothwell is to him. I'm too young to know who Foreman is but I've seen videos and read about him. He wasn't exactly a technical fighter but he could take a punch and just embodied that 'HW' factor.

The Wisconsin Bear is a 6'4" 265+ lb behemoth. He's as big of a HW you'll see in the octagon in terms of girth. He'll stalk you in the cage and force you to exchange with him while absorbing your punches to dish his own. And trying to take him down has now become a threat. Like climbing a tree to escape a grizzly bear, he can still still get you.

He has an open palm style and he extends his hands out trying to welcome you to brawl with him. He stands really square too at times I feel like he just doesn't give a shit about getting hit but man that's fucking scary. At this weight class you can almost bend the rules that way. I wonder how Rothwell teaches his students to fight because obviously not everyone can fight the way he does.

Man it's crazy to even say this, but is JDS' boxing really better than Rothwells? Sure he's cleaner, smoother, faster, and a more aesthetically pleasing style but Overeem was also on paper the better striker. Ben hit him right behind the ear similar to where Hunt landed on Mir right in that critical spot. He definitely knows what he's doing and what he's aiming for. That's a kill shot.

JDS has acknowledged he wants no part of that bear-trap submission so he will avoid it and that sort of puts a hinge on how free you're able to fight in the cage. Ben is known to have a solid chin so Junior's gotta be thinking in the gym to prepare to go 5 rounds. I think I like JDS not ITD -175 I'll make that as my base play.

I went with something similar - Rothwell no SC at -131. Relative to his current ML (about -105), I think that is a great price. I have a hard time seeing Rothwell winning a 5 round decision and a JDS decision while unlikely, is not out of the question which would push the bet. Could even put a small bet on JDS dec to supplement the Rothwell no SC

 

[Agent Mulder]

I went with something similar - Rothwell no SC at -131. Relative to his current ML (about -105), I think that is a great price. I have a hard time seeing Rothwell winning a 5 round decision and a JDS decision while unlikely, is not out of the question which would push the bet. Could even put a small bet on JDS dec to supplement the Rothwell no SC

Great line imo!

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I went with something similar - Rothwell no SC at -131. Relative to his current ML (about -105), I think that is a great price. I have a hard time seeing Rothwell winning a 5 round decision and a JDS decision while unlikely, is not out of the question which would push the bet. Could even put a small bet on JDS dec to supplement the Rothwell no SC

You're right I forgot about the No SC line darn ^

All these new future lines and nothing for this card. It's a weird one to cap because there are a bunch of no names on the card. 8 fighters making their debut that's gotta be the record right? Not to mention the few guys with only 1 UFC fight as well. Also features 10 HWs geez, I wonder what cage size will they use?

Small cage? imagine

 

[Joseph Budden]

You're right I forgot about the No SC line darn ^

All these new future lines and nothing for this card. It's a weird one to cap because there are a bunch of no names on the card. 8 fighters making their debut that's gotta be the record right? Not to mention the few guys with only 1 UFC fight as well. Also features 10 HWs geez, I wonder what cage size will they use?

Small cage? imagine

It will be a regular sized cage

 

[Jae Gibbz]

You're right I forgot about the No SC line darn ^

All these new future lines and nothing for this card. It's a weird one to cap because there are a bunch of no names on the card. 8 fighters making their debut that's gotta be the record right? Not to mention the few guys with only 1 UFC fight as well. Also features 10 HWs geez, I wonder what cage size will they use?

Small cage? imagine

Yeah, weird card, for sure. I assume we will get the lines pretty soon (within a couple days, tops), but yeah, that was pretty annoying they opened up future lines before the odds for this card.

 

[Sham5916910]

Great lb card lads. The bookies wont have a clue on a lot of these fights plenty if dogs should come through.

 

[MMAJay]

A short video from the gym Rumble Sports where Dalby and Hadzovic trains, to those of you who don't know anything about Hadzovic.

Hadzovic grew up in Bosnia, but had to flee the country with his family. They moved to Denmark, and he moved to the capital Copenhagen as an adult and started in the Rumble Sports gym after having some troubles in the "ghetto" where he earlier lived with his family.

EDIT:

As a fellow dane I would love for Hadzovic to get a nice debut, but Taisumov is a very tough debut. Especially considering that both men look to strike, and I just think that Taisumov has a bit more power than Hadzovic. I think that Hadzovic will overcommit on his punches, and if he gets to reckless, I wouldn't be surprised if he run into Taisumovs power and get dropped.

I wouldn't be surprised either if it would be a 15 minutes fight where both fighters are afraid to commit and take it too easy.

 

[EzFlyer]

UFC Fight Night 86 - Heavyweight 5 rounds - Zagreb Arena - Zagreb, Croatia - UFC Fight Pass
Sun 4/10 1001 Ben Rothwell -105 o1½ -145
4:30PM 1002 Junior dos Santos -115 u1½ +125
UFC Fight Night 86 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - Zagreb Arena - Zagreb, Croatia
Sun 4/10 1101 Gabriel Gonzaga +125 o1½ +130
4:00PM 1102 Derrick Lewis -165 u1½ -170
UFC Fight Night 86 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Zagreb Arena - Zagreb, Croatia - UFC Fight Pass
Sun 4/10 1601 Zak Cummings +135 o2½ -215
1:30PM 1602 Nicolas Dalby -175 u2½ +165

 

[Joseph Budden]

UFC Fight Night 86 - Heavyweight 5 rounds - Zagreb Arena - Zagreb, Croatia - UFC Fight Pass
Sun 4/10 1001 Ben Rothwell -105 o1½ -145
4:30PM 1002 Junior dos Santos -115 u1½ +125
UFC Fight Night 86 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - Zagreb Arena - Zagreb, Croatia
Sun 4/10 1101 Gabriel Gonzaga +125 o1½ +130
4:00PM 1102 Derrick Lewis -165 u1½ -170
UFC Fight Night 86 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Zagreb Arena - Zagreb, Croatia - UFC Fight Pass
Sun 4/10 1601 Zak Cummings +135 o2½ -215
1:30PM 1602 Nicolas Dalby -175 u2½ +165

They're teasing us with only 2 new fights right now.

I like nothing.

 

[EzFlyer]

same, lol. besides rothwell small.