Official UFN 84 Thread

[Rasdun]

Okay so let's say I like Silva vs Bisping and am gonna bet Silva ML at -310. I have $100 I want to bet on this fight. I think Bisping's only chance of winning is via dec.

Silva ML is -310
Bisping by dec is +375
Not Bisping it'd is about -975 I think

How would you ration the $ that you thinks makes the most sense if you were going to hedge?

Currently Silva -310, Bis by dec +375, not Bisping itd -960. The amount to bet on each depends on your level of confidence for each. That said, you really have more confidence in 1 play and that's the one you should go with. Rarely is there value betting both fighters. But, if you really want to hedge, here's an example:

Bet 90 on Silva wins 29.03
Bisping by dec 10 wins 37.50
Potential outcomes on 100 risk:
Silva wins +19.03
Bisping wins by dec -52.50
Bisping itd -100

Bet 50 on Silva wins 16.13
Bet 50 on Not Bisping itd wins 5.21
Potential outcomes on same 100 risk:
Silva wins +21.34
Bisping wins by dec -44.79
Bisping itd -100

So, in this instance by using not Bisping itd as your hedge - if you really want to hedge- you'll increase your win on Silva and decrease your loss on Bis by dec, with same 100 loss on Bis itd. You'll find almost all of the time it works out thus way bc your paying less juice

 

[Rasdun]

Currently Silva +310, Bis by dec +375, not Bisping itd -960. The amount to bet on each depends on your level of confidence for each. That said, you really have more confidence in 1 play and that's the one you should go with. Rarely is there value betting both fighters. But, if you really want to hedge, here's an example:

Bet 90 on Silva wins 29.03
Bisping by dec 10 wins 37.50
Potential outcomes on 100 risk:
Silva wins +19.03
Bisping wins by dec -52.50
Bisping itd -100

Bet 50 on Silva wins 16.13
Bet 50 on Not Bisping itd wins 5.21
Potential outcomes on same 100 risk:
Silva wins +21.34
Bisping wins by dec -44.79
Bisping itd -100

So, in this instance by using not Bisping itd as your hedge - if you really want to hedge- you'll increase your win on Silva and decrease your loss on Bis by dec, with same 100 loss on Bis itd. You'll find almost all of the time it works out thus way bc your paying less juice

I think my math is right...lol

 

[mkess101]

Currently Silva -310, Bis by dec +375, not Bisping itd -960. The amount to bet on each depends on your level of confidence for each. That said, you really have more confidence in 1 play and that's the one you should go with. Rarely is there value betting both fighters. But, if you really want to hedge, here's an example:

Bet 90 on Silva wins 29.03
Bisping by dec 10 wins 37.50
Potential outcomes on 100 risk:
Silva wins +19.03
Bisping wins by dec -52.50
Bisping itd -100

Bet 50 on Silva wins 16.13
Bet 50 on Not Bisping itd wins 5.21
Potential outcomes on same 100 risk:
Silva wins +21.34
Bisping wins by dec -44.79
Bisping itd -100

So, in this instance by using not Bisping itd as your hedge - if you really want to hedge- you'll increase your win on Silva and decrease your loss on Bis by dec, with same 100 loss on Bis itd. You'll find almost all of the time it works out thus way bc your paying less juice

Okay but it really depends on your level of confidence and what you see as the likelihood of each scenario. I pass on hedging way more fights than I hedge, but I think when you really like a favorite and think the opponent really only has one path to victory and the odds on that prop are good, it's a decent idea.

I do think you have a valid point that hedging should be used selectively.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

so i'm all aboard the breese train.

that said, dont bet RD 1 -115.. "does not start rd 2" is -112, hehe.

i'm gonna hit that. not big, but man, breese is so legit.

Nice catch. Like I already said in a post yesterday, I'm on Breese KO -135 and u1.5 -150. However, I also added Breese R2 +400. If Breese gets a KO within the first 2.5 minutes in R2, they all hit

 

[Ukram]

So... Both Anik and Florian picked Bisping and money is coming in on him on EU books (bias, perhaps?). How the FUCK does Bisping beat any version of Silva? Two outfighters where Silva is far more skilled in this area. I dont think Bisping is a good enough wrestler to consistantly land TDs to steal rounds. Bisping by robbery is his only route to victory. Where am I wrong here?

Yeah, Silva's age, inactivity and the proper drug testing are the three red flags.

Bisping has never lost a UFC fight in UK, as he said no Viagra, no steroids we may see a totally different Silva.

 

[michi972]

Jotko+Omielańczuk+Swensenn, about 2 pounds 2,5 euro

 

[Ukram]

Have the same concerns discussed previously with Keita, jingas a big 170 pounder also and was landing some solid punches if I recall and Keita had a chin on him and good r3 cardio to get that sub in, Keita has had 40+ fights and 1 ko loss and 1 sub loss but yeah breese all 9 stoppages in 9 fights.

Competition wise though relatively all poor to medium guys for both more recently.

Anyone else reckon Keita can survive on the over 1.5 ?

 

[mkess101]

Have the same concerns discussed previously with Keita, jingas a big 170 pounder also and was landing some solid punches if I recall and Keita had a chin on him and good r3 cardio to get that sub in, Keita has had 40+ fights and 1 ko loss and 1 sub loss but yeah breese all 9 stoppages in 9 fights.

Competition wise though relatively all poor to medium guys for both more recently.

Anyone else reckon Keita can survive on the over 1.5 ?

He could but he'd need to change his style a lot. If he comes in winging punches and leaving himself open for counters like he has in the fights I've seen of him he will have a very short night. Breese has big power and is ultra accurate. He does seem more like a counterpuncher so at some point he might struggle against someone with real skill that won't come right at him. I don't think Keita is that guy though.

 

[Ukram]

if silva fights like he did against diaz he could possible snag a decision.. i think the fight screams live betting

Was about to suggest the same thing, should be one of the best fights for live betting really I oddly like bisping's volume here, already considering placing some r4/r5 and decision prop bisping plays as pre-hedges to going medium on one parlay. I also reckon this is bisping's closest to a title shot or biggest fight in ufc after this he has nothing so we may see the best bisping yet.

Was going to go medium on holly + RDA parlay, but following RDAs broken foot will have to see Mcgregor's replacement, if its Frankie my BR is going south quickly.

 

[Ukram]

Breese has 9 fights, 9 finishes and home turf advantage guess that is 2 solid reasons to join the breese itd train at least.

 

[Starkaine]

Right now have:

Allen & Teymur parlay 2.5u
Bisping 1u
.5u Allen, Teymur, Jotko, Askham, Breese, Mousasi

Will add more when props get posted

I am really liking this card, going to pound some Breese props and of course biggest bet of the night will be Mousasi/Leites over, thinking about 3-5u, I just can't see it ending early.

 

[mkess101]

Breese itd+Mousasi/Leites o2.5 paying +108.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Wow, they haven't done a series of these in a while. I actually enjoy them

 

[Sham5916910]

Breese itd+Mousasi/Leites o2.5 paying +108.

I prefer Breese ITD + Parke Khabilov o2.5 @ -120 personally. Like that too tho.

 

[wack3d]

lol @ these specials on betfair

McGregor to say on Twitter that Dos Anjors faked his inury +200
McGregor to call Dos Anjos a Chicken on Twitter +300

 

[null]

lol @ these specials on betfair

McGregor to say on Twitter that Dos Anjors faked his inury +200
McGregor to call Dos Anjos a Chicken on Twitter +300

I'd like to see how they grade that latter prop, lol. Does Conor actually have to use the word "chicken"? What if he just calls him scared? Or says "Cluck Cluck"?.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

I'd like to see how they grade that latter prop, lol. Does Conor actually have to use the word "chicken"? What if he just calls him scared? Or says "Cluck Cluck"?.

I'm 99% sure he has to use of the word chicken

 

[Rasdun]

Okay but it really depends on your level of confidence and what you see as the likelihood of each scenario. I pass on hedging way more fights than I hedge, but I think when you really like a favorite and think the opponent really only has one path to victory and the odds on that prop are good, it's a decent idea.

I do think you have a valid point that hedging should be used selectively.

But, even if you want to hedge, 99% of the time you'll get more value doing it the way I posted above. If you want to hedge with Bisping by dec, then bet less on Silva straight and more on not Bisping itd

 

[Ukram]

Just re-watched bisping's last fight again against leites, pretty much think bisping won't be any different in style and performance, he is always circling, using footwork to avoid damage and countering with his low leg kicks, body kicks and jabs and that nicely set up over hand right, but these are almost just keeping opponents at bay. Silva @ 40 and after going through major upsets and career damaging reputation moments lately again was pretty tentative and willing to throw leg kicks and jabs against a robotic diaz standing in front of him at times just defending for 25 minutes.

Bisping also had a elbow injury 3 months ago, and silva is still answering Viagra questions for the past year, so Bisping bycycle and tentative Silva for early r1,r2 imo, so am liking the o2.5 play, may mix in some parlay play.

 

[mkess101]

But, even if you want to hedge, 99% of the time you'll get more value doing it the way I posted above. If you want to hedge with Bisping by dec, then bet less on Silva straight and more on not Bisping itd

Again, depends on each individual fight. Maybe I think Bisping by dec has some value. Like I think Silva wins 80% of the time and the other 20% Bisping wins by dec. In this scenario I've capped my winnings with Silva more but limited my losses to almost nothing if Bisping does win a dec. Like I said it all depends on what you cap each outcome at vs their odds.