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Looks like Kimbo's been training at ATT.
I hate that Ulka Sasaki is -275. I thought coming off a loss to a guy he was a 5-1 favorite over would bring that line a bit down in the 200s.
Leandro Issa is a VERY improved version from what we've seen from him in the past and the one that showed up against Ulka who really held his own against a world class black belt on the mat.
Lapilus on the other hand is actually a pretty solid fighter himself. He always strikes off the break and he's shown some good IQ and solid defensive skills. His striking is very serviceable and he uses his reach very well. I just don't think his offensive skillset is going to be enough to get the W against Ulka who I think trumps him in that department as well as having great grappling defense himself.
I think there's an opportunity for Ulka to grab a submission just based off how slick he is. I've seen Sasaki sneak in a d'arce choke on his back while Issa had him in side control (ala Mitch Clarke). If Lapilus shows up having done his homework and conditioning, I think it can go the distance which is what I'm leaning more towards also because the odds pay out very well.
Not Sasaki ITD is -112
I have a small bet on Lapilus already. My site is painfully slow in releasing over/unders (day of usually). You are saying you think the over 2.5 would be a good bet? What kind of odds do you think I should be looking for in taking the over?
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MLB Thurs
Don't have time to post breakdowns but here's my picks today (I did post some b/d's on a few of these earlier in response to OneWarrior's picks--I'm playing the same 3 as he has plus 2 more today.
Yesterday...sucked. I had a couple decent days in a row and then went 0-4 yesterday. That's how this season has been. Treading water.
BAL/PHI over 8.5
KC -140
TOR -165
TB -135
HOU -120
BOL
...Please tell me this is slow motion.
unibet
Dan Charles +400 0.5u
Charles - Lashley o1.5 -134 2u
Let's be honest here. Nothing in gambling is as easy as it appears at first glance. If you think Shamrock is going to get dusted the odds wouldn't be as close as they are. Kimbo's line would be at the very least around the high -300 to -500 mark. Kimbo at -200 means the line is very telling. Shamrock has a good chance in getting the win despite everyone thinking Kimbo is a "LOCK".
Remember if this goes to the ground at any point, you can virtually count Kimbo out. Shamrock could just as easily use his patented ankle lock. I'm definitely putting a small flier bet on Shamrock because he has more way to win and Kimbo gasses after his 2 minutes of flurry punches. I'm always going with value play here. Shamrock's age does worry me to a degree but he looks absolutely ripped and in great physical shape.
Never said I would be Bellator after getting screwed over in many of the rig jobs but I equate the new regime as basically STRIKEFORCE now. I have much more faith in Coke than I do with Rebney
My 2 cents
- Barry
I was just looking up Charles, think he looks pretty good! i will take a stab at that one too!
Also like the u2.5 in Chandlers fight, think he will look really good and finish in first or second