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Reneau sub is the biggest opener I hit. Not much bet on it now, but if it stays around there I will add more for sure.
Also small stabs Bamgbose in round 1 +400 and Mendes by sub +650
Official UFC fight night 83 Thread
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Also small stabs Bamgbose in round 1 +400 and Mendes by sub +650
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Good call on Bangbros R1. I'm not sure he has the stamina to last after R1, but alot of the other bangbros do in their videos
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Fucckkk like it so much but hes never faced a guy with Garcia style, and already heavy on the over. We'll see how the weekend goes, hopefully that line doesn't move much
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Hmm, that's pretty good actually
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I like Ashley a lot as an underdog, I think she should be the favorite. For some reason people seem to have gotten the idea that Reneau is a good striker, but she's really not. Neither is AES, but she has a solid clinch striking/wrestling game and should be able to control Reneau there. I think she'll be fine on the ground - Jessica Andrade has a very rudimentary grappling skillset and relies on strengthing everything and crushing for guillotines all the time. Her sloppy defense got her put in a triangle, she got out, and then just threw herself right into another triangle.
I have exactly zero bets on this event so far. No props on Pinnacle and looks like most of peoples's plays on this events is props?
BTW This is a Sunday event again, so that people won't get dissappointed saturday night
BTW This is a Sunday event again, so that people won't get dissappointed saturday night
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As it stands Brunson was a bigger favourite over Alvey than he is over Carneiro. I find this very odd Alvey is IMO stylistically a more dangerous fight.
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They might have got concerned due to Roans background and resume;
Specific accomplishments in amateur competition? Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Champion, Pan American Champion and Champion of Rio de Janeiro. Bruxells International Grappling champion, 1st Place ADCC Brazilian Trials, winner of many tournaments in Brazil.
Specific accomplishments in pro competition? Champion of Deep Japan, Meca World Champion in Brazil, ShowFight in Brazil, Shooto Switzerland.
Ranks in any martial arts styles: Black Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, D1 wrestling in Brazil.
3rd degree bbj, From ATT camp, training bjj since 18 as well but yeah impossible to not suggest brunson, guy was only what 2 minutes ? from beating yoel who was or is no1 contender.
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I still don't get it very unlikely a WW like Carneiro especially at his age is athletic enough to take and hold Brunson down. At least every fight starts standing and Alvey has insane one punch KO power. I'm miffed personally.
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Yup and always impossible to say for sure how well if true those accomplishments or competitions/awards really are ! Still the level of competition and momentum is with brunson, ill be keeping an eye on a r3 Carneiro sub though if the lines decent not that id imagine it makes it that r3.
Overall an ok card, big branded names again with them pricey lines, like the idea of garcia/strick live betting and still like campbell decision, carneiro sub or r3 sub flyers and will need to see bermudez lb decision lines in case b365 mess them up.
Not done any research really other then this thread for once, but as usual us lot know most of the fighters styles well enough by now so lets see how it goes for us lot!
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FML!
So I've watched a bit of Kelly Fasholz and I've come to the conclusion that she might actually have a bunch of edges in her fight against Lauren Murphy. Wall of text incoming.
First of all, she's a pretty solid grappler. She has a halfdecent blast-dubble as we could see in at least one of her fights posted here, in various BJJ-videos I've found in youtube she always tends to end up on top one way or another and at least at one occasion she got a fairly quick and proper-looking throw into halfguard in some Grappler's Quest finals from 2011. According to the commentators in one of her pro fights she trains with Cesar Gracie and thanks to google I found out that she also trained under Bruno Bastos for a bit around 2010 when she was a purple belt. Back then she also trained BJJ with Gadelha.
At some point she moved away from Dallas and started training at “Nor-Cal fighting Alliance” and for some reason taking fights in Colorado. As far as I can see they have some decent fighters at that gym, the biggest names being Nate Loughran and Collin Hart, both of failed UFC-stints fame. As far as I can tell she stopped doing grappling competitions around 2011 and started taking amateur MMA fights the year after, going pro in 2013 taking one fight during the summer and then two more against semi-legit opposition in 2015.
Given that she used to be a somewhat successful competition purple belt when she started taking MMA-fights about five years ago and has been with a decently legit team for all that time I'm gonna go ahead and assume that she has at least as good grappling as Murphy and while her striking was active enough it was very much a work in progress (and I'm being nice here) but it's not like Murphy is getting any K1-titles anytime soon either, so I'm not sure how much of an issue that is.
As far as her coming in on short notice goes she had a fight lined up for the end of next month, against Stephanie Webber (2-2 pro, 3-0 amy, losses to Germanie de Randamie and Julianna Pena but no fights since 2012) and before that she was supposed to fight for the Legacy title against Valentina Shevchenko before she got the call to fight Kaufman. He instagram looks like a fairly even distribution of inspirational quotes (less cringe-worthy then normal ones), pictures and texts about how much coffee she drinks and training pictures. While short notice never is a good thing, at least she looked to be active and preparing for a fight so that might not be an huge issue. Gonna wait for the weight in and try to get a read on it.
As for Murphy you gotta give her some credit. She's turning into a decent wrestler, she did very well against both McMann and Caramuche and she deserved to get at least one win out of those, but then again Nakamoto was shitting all over her before blowing out a knee in a title fight that got her into the UFC and I for one did not understand the scorecards against Sarah D'Alelio. Thus her last convincing win was against Kaitlin Young (7-9) back in 2013. Yes I had money against her when she fought Caramuche and I thought it was a sure loss when they read the scorecards, but Caramouche actually had 149 total strikes vs the 67 of Murphy and while Murphy had slightly more significant strikes the only thing she actually hit was a bunch of legkicks. She hit 6 out of 59 headstrikes, 2 out of 2 body strikes and 38 out of 41 leg strikes and she had about ~20% successrate on distance strikes. While you shouldn't listen to stats all the time it's pretty clear that she's not gonna be safe with a gameplan of outstriking someone at distance.
So basically, I think Murphy might be stronger, better conditioned, probably grittier, has fought better competition and has done well against it. I also think that her opponent has better technical grappling, likes the clinch just as much and might not be as outgunned as I thought initially standing. Yes, Murphy might just big brother her and be too much too soon in general, but I tend to think that this fight might be close-ish and given Murphys issues with winning decisions and the fact that Faszholz looks like a decent prospect with sneaky grappling and mostly good habits except for her stand up I'm tempted to throw a few bucks on her. If I get something like +700 or so I might go for her sub line also, she has a decent back take and some sneaky chokes.
At least half the time Murphy will just win by being bigger, stronger and just refusing to lose. However, if Fazsholz is in shape, has a decent day and preforms near her capacity I think she can win. At these odds I put two units on her to win just over 6u. There are too many question marks about this fight to be certain about very much at all, so give me the dog with a decent upside against a veteran who never really got that far and is on a losing streak (however questionable some of the decisions were).
The think that sealed the bet for me is that the newcomer likes to fight in ways that scores point, she likes to dirty box and hates to be put against the fence. On the ground she makes sure to be on top in both GI-grappling, submission grappling and MMA and she throws a lot standing. Murphy is also very active, but she seriously has issues with not scoring many points standing and sometimes ends up on her back a bit too much.
So short version on Faszholz:
- Got a legit BJJ background with some very high level instructors and some tournament success, despite to my knowledge not being higher then purple.
- Looks to be in shape, and was matched up with Shevchenko before she got the call to the UFC. Given that she's from a decent camp I assume that she at least figured she had a fighting chance in that fight.
- Looks to have a decent style for winning decisions by being active and keep good positioning.
- Seems to like going for front chokes, might be an issue and end up costing her if she ends up on her ass too much.
Links:
http://www.graciemag.com/2010/11/bastos-gets-ready-for-euro-open-and-comments-on-wins-in-dallas/
http://www.fightmetric.com/fight-details/8cf571afc2618df4
At some point she moved away from Dallas and started training at “Nor-Cal fighting Alliance” and for some reason taking fights in Colorado. As far as I can see they have some decent fighters at that gym, the biggest names being Nate Loughran and Collin Hart, both of failed UFC-stints fame. As far as I can tell she stopped doing grappling competitions around 2011 and started taking amateur MMA fights the year after, going pro in 2013 taking one fight during the summer and then two more against semi-legit opposition in 2015.
Given that she used to be a somewhat successful competition purple belt when she started taking MMA-fights about five years ago and has been with a decently legit team for all that time I'm gonna go ahead and assume that she has at least as good grappling as Murphy and while her striking was active enough it was very much a work in progress (and I'm being nice here) but it's not like Murphy is getting any K1-titles anytime soon either, so I'm not sure how much of an issue that is.
As far as her coming in on short notice goes she had a fight lined up for the end of next month, against Stephanie Webber (2-2 pro, 3-0 amy, losses to Germanie de Randamie and Julianna Pena but no fights since 2012) and before that she was supposed to fight for the Legacy title against Valentina Shevchenko before she got the call to fight Kaufman. He instagram looks like a fairly even distribution of inspirational quotes (less cringe-worthy then normal ones), pictures and texts about how much coffee she drinks and training pictures. While short notice never is a good thing, at least she looked to be active and preparing for a fight so that might not be an huge issue. Gonna wait for the weight in and try to get a read on it.
As for Murphy you gotta give her some credit. She's turning into a decent wrestler, she did very well against both McMann and Caramuche and she deserved to get at least one win out of those, but then again Nakamoto was shitting all over her before blowing out a knee in a title fight that got her into the UFC and I for one did not understand the scorecards against Sarah D'Alelio. Thus her last convincing win was against Kaitlin Young (7-9) back in 2013. Yes I had money against her when she fought Caramuche and I thought it was a sure loss when they read the scorecards, but Caramouche actually had 149 total strikes vs the 67 of Murphy and while Murphy had slightly more significant strikes the only thing she actually hit was a bunch of legkicks. She hit 6 out of 59 headstrikes, 2 out of 2 body strikes and 38 out of 41 leg strikes and she had about ~20% successrate on distance strikes. While you shouldn't listen to stats all the time it's pretty clear that she's not gonna be safe with a gameplan of outstriking someone at distance.
So basically, I think Murphy might be stronger, better conditioned, probably grittier, has fought better competition and has done well against it. I also think that her opponent has better technical grappling, likes the clinch just as much and might not be as outgunned as I thought initially standing. Yes, Murphy might just big brother her and be too much too soon in general, but I tend to think that this fight might be close-ish and given Murphys issues with winning decisions and the fact that Faszholz looks like a decent prospect with sneaky grappling and mostly good habits except for her stand up I'm tempted to throw a few bucks on her. If I get something like +700 or so I might go for her sub line also, she has a decent back take and some sneaky chokes.
At least half the time Murphy will just win by being bigger, stronger and just refusing to lose. However, if Fazsholz is in shape, has a decent day and preforms near her capacity I think she can win. At these odds I put two units on her to win just over 6u. There are too many question marks about this fight to be certain about very much at all, so give me the dog with a decent upside against a veteran who never really got that far and is on a losing streak (however questionable some of the decisions were).
The think that sealed the bet for me is that the newcomer likes to fight in ways that scores point, she likes to dirty box and hates to be put against the fence. On the ground she makes sure to be on top in both GI-grappling, submission grappling and MMA and she throws a lot standing. Murphy is also very active, but she seriously has issues with not scoring many points standing and sometimes ends up on her back a bit too much.
So short version on Faszholz:
- Got a legit BJJ background with some very high level instructors and some tournament success, despite to my knowledge not being higher then purple.
- Looks to be in shape, and was matched up with Shevchenko before she got the call to the UFC. Given that she's from a decent camp I assume that she at least figured she had a fighting chance in that fight.
- Looks to have a decent style for winning decisions by being active and keep good positioning.
- Seems to like going for front chokes, might be an issue and end up costing her if she ends up on her ass too much.
Links:
http://www.graciemag.com/2010/11/bastos-gets-ready-for-euro-open-and-comments-on-wins-in-dallas/
http://www.fightmetric.com/fight-details/8cf571afc2618df4
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