Official UFC 196 Thread

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wack3d said:
haha ya.. wish the fight starts round 1 and 2 ect got the same price bumps.. atm fight starts round 3 pays +130 yet the ov 2,5 is +173 makes no sense lol

edit: i am tired ^^ ofcourse it makes sense that it pays less then ov 2,5 not sure what i was thinking :eek:
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Yeah I was gonna bring that up but you caught it yourself :P
 
Card said:
Skelly - Elkins likes to grind out decisions, I'll stuff his takedowns, and submission hunting like I always do.
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Those are basically contradictory statements. My guess is that he'll hunt for submissions more than focusing on stuffing takedowns. He doesn't mind working from bottom which may end up being his downfall here.
 
I thought Nate could've lost the fight against MJ if MJ would've fired off a few more leg kicks. I had money on Nate so I was hoping Nate would either start checking a few or start lifting up his leg to throw a few of his own and so he did. But MJ has bad fight IQ he didn't go to his kicks more. Nate really isn't good against kicks unless he's able to crowd his opponent and pressure them to be on their back foot. Conor I'm expecting to be smart and mix in his kicks. I would've taken the fight goes past a few rounds but man since he's stated the 1st round finish I'm not sure if I should bet against him. I have a small amount for action on his decision prop.

There is a glaring hole in Nate's kickboxing and Conor always says he adjusts and overcomes and I expect him to. It sucks that it's hard to squeeze any type of value out of the main and co-main but it is what it is
 
Fuck when i bet GOAT @ +1000 to win dec forgot to check unanimous line. Dec line now dropped to +800 and unanimous only +900. Bollocks.
 
Not loving those Skelly odds anymore. At least Elkins has a camp.
 
I don't know, I could be wrong but I think all of those decision lines are donations to your favorite bookies. Don't see Diaz lasting all 5.

Edit: Liked Elkins as a dog, like him more now.
 
Rebel_LioN said:
I thought Nate could've lost the fight against MJ if MJ would've fired off a few more leg kicks. I had money on Nate so I was hoping Nate would either start checking a few or start lifting up his leg to throw a few of his own and so he did. But MJ has bad fight IQ he didn't go to his kicks more. Nate really isn't good against kicks unless he's able to crowd his opponent and pressure them to be on their back foot. Conor I'm expecting to be smart and mix in his kicks. I would've taken the fight goes past a few rounds but man since he's stated the 1st round finish I'm not sure if I should bet against him. I have a small amount for action on his decision prop.

There is a glaring hole in Nate's kickboxing and Conor always says he adjusts and overcomes and I expect him to. It sucks that it's hard to squeeze any type of value out of the main and co-main but it is what it is
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I agree and I think fighting at 170 makes the KO more likely as well. Conor will pack that much more of a punch. I want to bet the over or decision lines but have a hard time seeing this go all 5.

I am kinda just at a loss on main and co main... certainly no big bets I want to hit.
 
LEMONZEST said:
I agree and I think fighting at 170 makes the KO more likely as well. Conor will pack that much more of a punch. I want to bet the over or decision lines but have a hard time seeing this go all 5.

I am kinda just at a loss on main and co main... certainly no big bets I want to hit.
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What don't you like about overs on the co?
 
I'm mostly on Conor's ML and the under 2½ in the main event but I had to put $50 on Conor DEC at +905 just in case this goes the distance for whatever reason.
 
Was gonna play Silva SU but saw that bet365 had Conor/Diaz Ov 0.5 -400 so i parlayed those. Semi regret it already but should work out... Hopefully.
 
Agent Mulder said:
Was gonna play Silva SU but saw that bet365 had Conor/Diaz Ov 0.5 -400 so i parlayed those. Semi regret it already but should work out... Hopefully.
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Wait, what? As in, the fight lasts over two and a half minutes? Seriously?
 
Rebel_LioN said:
The bold kind of contradicts itself. She's out there throwing 3-4 combos therefore she must be good at offense. Anyways, I actually don't think she has a limited offensive game...
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The word choice may not have been perfect as her offense isn't "limited". She does have every tool in her arsenal. She just hasn't shown any creativity or setups to be able to use them. I have been unimpressed with her so far, as was nearly everyone until the Ronda fight. That was more of an "emperor has no clothes' reveal than a coronation of the true Queen. Havign said that my biggest bet so far is Holms by Dec and I'm waiting on a possible better odd on the over rds to play that.

edit* and I found my over odd 1.58 (-172) Made the traditional bet. 172 pays 100.
 
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full props going up right now (latifi-villante going up etc) -- idk if only main card or full card, but they're going up
 
ok hear me out on this...

I just put 0.5u on Diaz wins in r1 @ +1400

Here is my reasoning...Conor has put a lot of pressure on himself by "promising" a r1 finish. Nate knows this and Conor knows he kinda needs to show up and KO in r1 to keep his hype train going.

I know Nate is not exactly a power puncher but crazy shit happens and I certainly think its conceivable they get into some wide open exchanges and Conor gets clipped.

PS. betting aside, as a fan I am fully on Nate "3 day training camp" Diaz. Conor is too big for his britches now....time to fall back to planet earth.
 
LEMONZEST said:
ok hear me out on this...

I just put 0.5u on Diaz wins in r1 @ +1400

Here is my reasoning...Conor has put a lot of pressure on himself by "promising" a r1 finish. Nate knows this and Conor knows he kinda needs to show up and KO in r1 to keep his hype train going.

I know Nate is not exactly a power puncher but crazy shit happens and I certainly think its conceivable they get into some wide open exchanges and Conor gets clipped.
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That's a worse bet than Conor DEC at high odds you said you didn't like. Conor has a granite chin and Nate is a low power, volume puncher. Conor ate Mendes' overhands like they were mushy cereal for breakfast. I guess the sub is possible in R1, but I highly doubt it. If Nate finishes the fight, it's in the later rounds due to a cumulative damage and/or Conor exhaustion, imo. Still highly unlikely. I can't fault you if it was like a .1u bet, but a .5u on that is pretty crazy. Good luck, regardless!
 
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