How many smaller houses can fit inside a house? You build 100 mini houses, and eventually the houses are like 1 cm big. How many people can fit in a 1 cm house? None. How many people can fit in the original house? Probably hundreds. So just how much of the matter and energy -- the equivalent of square footage in the house analogy -- in the real reality is allocated to being used as computers for simulations? If it's less than 50% then it's more likely that you're in the real reality than in a simulation. If it's more than 50% then you have to start asking.. why? Using 99% of your matter and energy to build infinite copies of the Sims starts to sound ridiculous -- it would make the designers of the simulations retarded and retarded people can't program simulations. So that can probably be rejected via reductio ad absurdem. On the surface, it seems 99.9999....% likely that we're in a simulation. When you start to poke at it though, big holes emerge in that idea.