NFL NFL Discussion: Over before it began

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So when picking these week 7 games what do we use, yep......those first 6 weeks

Dude, do have problems with trying to coexist with others, you are always so damn...grrrrrrrrrrrr......dude, relax, ok?

Haven’t you been banned from dozens of forums? Lmao at talking about others have a problem coexisting. Free @Motel 6 BBC
 
So when picking these week 7 games what do we use, yep......those first 6 weeks

Dude, do have problems with trying to coexist with others, you are always so damn...grrrrrrrrrrrr......dude, relax, ok?
No we don't. We use more recency bias like the last 2 weeks, current health of players, and match ups. Nobody thinks the Week 1 Bears played last night.

I genuinely dont understand why you dont take things on a week to week basis in the NFL like the actual pros do.
 
Haven’t you been banned from dozens of forums? Lmao at talking about others have a problem coexisting. Free @Motel 6 BBC
Haven’t you been banned from dozens of forums? Lmao at talking about others have a problem coexisting. Free @Motel 6 BBC

Where in the hell did you get that silliness from., I have never been banned, I;m not like you with that grrrrrrrrrrrrrrr attitude.

What was that about,...???
 
No we don't. We use more recency bias like the last 2 weeks, current health of players, and match ups. Nobody thinks the Week 1 Bears played last night.

I genuinely dont understand why you dont take things on a week to week basis in the NFL like the actual pros do.

Anything can happen in..A...game, you need to look at the history involved, who has a history of playng great off a bye, at home on MNF, on the road etc etc, all that matters.

To think, ah hell all that matters is the last two weeks, come on guy.
 
Anything can happen in..A...game, you need to look at the history involved, who has a history of playng great off a bye, at home on MNF, on the road etc etc, all that matters.

To think, ah hell all that matters is the last two weeks, come on guy.
Are you picking the Titans off a bye week against anyone? If they have the best bye week record in history it doesnt matter.

I sure as fuck won't

Every week is different, every season is different, every roster is different, every coach is different. These stupid ass numbers mean nothing week to week. That's why any given sunday is a slogan.
 
Are you picking the Titans off a bye week against anyone? If they have the best bye week record in history it doesnt matter.

I sure as fuck won't

Every week is different, every season is different, every roster is different, every coach is different. These stupid ass numbers mean nothing week to week. That's why any given sunday is a slogan.

So all these books talking about trends ya need to know to win ATS are all BS?

So this is all BS

to understand how knowing an NFL team's history can impact betting against the spread (ATS), consider the following points:

  1. Historical performance can indicate trends in team success or failure.
  2. Rivalry games often have unique outcomes based on past encounters.
  3. Player and coaching changes can affect a team's historical performance.
  4. Home and away records provide insights into team consistency.
  5. Injuries and roster changes can alter historical patterns.
  6. Weather conditions and their historical impact on games can influence outcomes.
So west coast teams playing in the eastern time zone is a non factor? And vce versa.

Dome teams outside on grass, no biggie?
 
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So all these books talking about trends ya need to know to win ATS are all BS?

So this is all BS

to understand how knowing an NFL team's history can impact betting against the spread (ATS), consider the following points:

  1. Historical performance can indicate trends in team success or failure.
  2. Rivalry games often have unique outcomes based on past encounters.
  3. Player and coaching changes can affect a team's historical performance.
  4. Home and away records provide insights into team consistency.
  5. Injuries and roster changes can alter historical patterns.
  6. Weather conditions and their historical impact on games can influence outcomes.
So west coast teams playing in the eastern time zone is a non factor? And vce versa.

Dome teams outside on grass, no biggie?
Yes
 
Hot takes
Bryce Young is Jeff Garcia
The niners will win their division
Baker will win MVP
The Steelers will make it to the AFC championship
Deshaun Watson was framed by Jerry jones
 
Why so much of this info out there if it means nothing?

The Chicago Bears have a record of 28-56 between October 14, 2020 and October 14, 2025.​


Do you bet vs the ATS?
wow thats crazy

That means they were gonna lose last night right?

Why not go to 1947? We're using completely different rosters, coaches and GMs, fuck it
 
wow thats crazy

That means they were gonna lose last night right?

Why not go to 1947? We're using completely different rosters, coaches and GMs, fuck it

They only won because of QB fumble.

So why al this.....


What Are ATS Records?​

NFL ATS trends track how teams perform Against the Spread, measuring whether a team covers the betting line set by oddsmakers. These trends include a team's ATS record (wins, losses, pushes), cover percentage, and average margin of victory or defeat relative to the spread. ATS stats are a cornerstone of NFL betting data because they reflect not just who wins, but whether teams meet or exceed betting market expectations. Trends can be filtered by home/away games, divisional matchups, or recent streaks, offering insight into both consistency and potential regression. Advanced ATS analysis looks at cover margins and situational splits to identify which teams provide the most betting value.


X is 24-6 at home last 30. Z is 6-24 on the road last 30, that is a X with a 48-12 trend to win. See how it goes? It starts there.
 
They only won because of QB fumble.

So why al this.....


What Are ATS Records?​

NFL ATS trends track how teams perform Against the Spread, measuring whether a team covers the betting line set by oddsmakers. These trends include a team's ATS record (wins, losses, pushes), cover percentage, and average margin of victory or defeat relative to the spread. ATS stats are a cornerstone of NFL betting data because they reflect not just who wins, but whether teams meet or exceed betting market expectations. Trends can be filtered by home/away games, divisional matchups, or recent streaks, offering insight into both consistency and potential regression. Advanced ATS analysis looks at cover margins and situational splits to identify which teams provide the most betting value.


X is 24-6 at home last 30. Z is 6-24 on the road last 30, that is a X with a 48-12 trend to win. See how it goes? It starts there.
I don't give a shit

W

caleb-williams.gif
 
They only won because of QB fumble.

So why al this.....


What Are ATS Records?​

NFL ATS trends track how teams perform Against the Spread, measuring whether a team covers the betting line set by oddsmakers. These trends include a team's ATS record (wins, losses, pushes), cover percentage, and average margin of victory or defeat relative to the spread. ATS stats are a cornerstone of NFL betting data because they reflect not just who wins, but whether teams meet or exceed betting market expectations. Trends can be filtered by home/away games, divisional matchups, or recent streaks, offering insight into both consistency and potential regression. Advanced ATS analysis looks at cover margins and situational splits to identify which teams provide the most betting value.


X is 24-6 at home last 30. Z is 6-24 on the road last 30, that is a X with a 48-12 trend to win. See how it goes? It starts there.

Forgive me for jumping in, but you guys are talking about two different things it seems. If you're betting, then sure you can use those metrics. That's fine.

If you're just watching week to week, none of that matters. All that matters is if a team wins or loses. I don't care about the Pats record ATS. I just want them to win football games, even if they don't meet the spread or O/U. I don't bet money, so that's just my point of view.
 
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