Newest M.I.T. study : The impact of quarantine on infection rates

[Ophydian]

I've been told I want people to die because of my views. I've also seen posters say we MUST stay quarantined for 18 months or millions will die.

You can just name me by name instead of this passive aggressive shit.

 

[MicroBrew]

I'm not doubting their ability to do math, but it's a single civ E and mech E doing a statistical research project. I'm not sure I'd call it an MIT study.



They are using the model from:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0021999118307125?via=ihub
Raissi, M., Perdikaris, P. & Karniadakis, G.E. 2019 Physics-informed neural networks: A deep learning framework for solving forward and inverse problems involving nonlinear partial differential equations. Journal of Computational Physics 378, 686–707.

In hindsight "study" is the wrong term, I should have just said "paper"

Here is the actual paper
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.03.20052084v1

 

[MicroBrew]

What about the heat? NY got smashed, but they've also got seasons. Of all the places that got nailed, how hard were the warmer climates hit? I haven't fully kept up on all the outbreaks, but I don't recall much coming out of the hot as fuck states like Texas and Cali.

The NYC subway was a leading cause of the infection spreading.

 

[Ophydian]

What about the heat? NY got smashed, but they've also got seasons. Of all the places that got nailed, how hard were the warmer climates hit? I haven't fully kept up on all the outbreaks, but I don't recall much coming out of the hot as fuck states like Texas and Cali.

It appears Climate is not a factor as there is a comparison between Brazil and South Africa showing spread is higher in Brazil and not in South Africa. SA has a much stricter quarantine and stay at home orders than Brazil.

 

[cincymma79]

You know what’s crazy is I did quick model which shows that we have about five times as many left handed people as Italy and 4 times as many as Germany

 

[Big Nasty Edison]

Fake news so the globalists can keep us from getting haircuts or surfing.

 

[BlacknBlue]

It appears Climate is not a factor as there is a comparison between Brazil and South Africa showing spread is higher in Brazil and not in South Africa. SA has a much stricter quarantine and stay at home orders than Brazil.

I seems to me that climate is likely a very large factor. To the point that we can trust any numbers from anywhere, neither Brazil nor South Africa are getting hit all that substantially. Compare either to the cooler climate countries in Europe and they barely even register. Add in there that Africa in general has not taken serious measures, but their numbers are miniscule compared to Europe. Given their economic ties with China and vulnerable health care system, Africa was supposed to get hammered by this.

The heat might not be a cure all, as some warm dense cities still have gotten hit, but there at least seems to be a correlation between good weather and a slower spread of this.

 

[Slick_36]

Looks like it was performed in Python...that's a matplotlib visualization if I've ever seen one. Wonder which ML algorithm they used...SVC, DecisionTree, Naive Bayes, etc...

Sorry...off topic...I've been working on my master's in Data Science...

Would these different algorithms have much of an effect on the data represented? If so could you explain to us what that would mean as far as what we're looking at?

 

[Slick_36]

What about the heat? NY got smashed, but they've also got seasons. Of all the places that got nailed, how hard were the warmer climates hit? I haven't fully kept up on all the outbreaks, but I don't recall much coming out of the hot as fuck states like Texas and Cali.

Dallas and Houston have been hit pretty hard. It's been warm to hot here in Dallas, I imagine more so in Houston. If we have low numbers as a state, it's probably a combination of many small populations and the fact that we rank in the bottom 10 of state testing.

 

[monster zero]

Fantastic, we better stay in our homes for the next decade to make sure no one ever gets coronavirus ever again.

WE ARE TWO WEEKS FROM HOSPITALS FILLING AND WE ALL DIE!

seriously just two more weeks. And then another two...

 

[HomeCheese]

http://news.mit.edu/2020/new-model-quantifies-impact-quarantine-measures-covid-19-spread-0416


Study has not yet been peer-reviewd, but has been published on the medRxiv preprint server.

One issue I see with the China curve is not knowing the true figure, and the CCP claimed numbers can't be trusted.

-

The model finds that in places like South Korea, where there was immediate government intervention in implementing strong quarantine measures, the virus spread plateaued more quickly. In places that were slower to implement government interventions, like Italy and the United States, the “effective reproduction number” of Covid-19 remains greater than one, meaning the virus has continued to spread exponentially.

The machine learning algorithm shows that with the current quarantine measures in place, the plateau for both Italy and the United States will arrive somewhere between April 15-20. This prediction is similar to other projections like that of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

“Our model shows that quarantine restrictions are successful in getting the effective reproduction number from larger than one to smaller than one,” says Barbastathis. “That corresponds to the point where we can flatten the curve and start seeing fewer infections.”

Nice info, thanks. Science has never been a strong suite of the right wing crowed. It is a shame what the US has done to it's own people.

 

[monster zero]

I agree 100% with you that Cali or the major cities in Cali, especially SF should be getting hammered. It makes no sense other than it’s probably less widely reported as most cases aren’t as severe due to life style. I mean it would explain the lower mortality rates.

Studies in California have shown up to 3x the current estimate of infection. Youd think they're two weeks away from collapse..

 

[HomeCheese]

Dallas and Houston have been hit pretty hard. It's been warm to hot here in Dallas, I imagine more so in Houston. If we have low numbers as a state, it's probably a combination of many small populations and the fact that we rank in the bottom 10 of state testing.

In Hawaii there was an infected person working at the take out window of a fast food restaurant and this was after the social distancing guidelines. Even with these precautions this worker infected at least 8 people. Obviously it's nice and warm here.

 

[Stoic1]

Nice info, thanks. Science has never been a strong suite of the right wing crowed. It is a shame what the US has done to it's own people.

The irony of this statement.

 

[ObamaPhoneLady]

If it hasn't been peer reviewed then it's meaningless.

 

[HomeCheese]

The irony of this statement.

Explain it to me, I know you can do it.

 

[ObamaPhoneLady]

WE ARE TWO WEEKS FROM HOSPITALS FILLING AND WE ALL DIE!

seriously just two more weeks. And then another two...

Even my wife's surgeon said that two weeks ago. He said 'it's good we got this done now instead of in two weeks when covid gets really bad.'

It's two weeks later and the hospitals are still well below capacity.

 

[Magooglie]

I think maybe areas of California could open up with social distancing. San Fran, fuck no, that’s a mini NYC waiting to happen.

The one somewhat commonality I see between the states having a hard time is the subway systems. NYC, Chicago and Detroit all have a mass transit system. San Fran has BART but not much in the way of spread but maybe that comes down to CA being more health conscious.

I do agree that children are super spreaders in that those fuckers touch everything.

San Fran acted pretty early. And with NY it's not just subways it's elevators, it's walking on a crowded street, it's being in crowded work spaces. When I lived in NY there were just so many people breathing on each other that can't be avoided in a regular day. Also all the stuff you end up touching. In CA, I could easily avoid getting breathed on in a regular day.

 

[MicroBrew]

If it hasn't been peer reviewed then it's meaningless.

Less meaningless than politicians making statements though, because the researchers are using widely available figures.

You don't need peer-review to know that when you lift the lockdown infected cases are going to skyrocket.

 

[trac209]

I've been told I want people to die because of my views. I've also seen posters say we MUST stay quarantined for 18 months or millions will die.

Gee I wonder who said that... don’t worry we all know.