nba lottery ( my breakdown)

Discussion in 'Sports Bar' started by llperez22, Jun 5, 2014.

  1. llperez22

    llperez22 Red Belt

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    the nba draft is coming soon, and im always a big nut when it comes to evaluating prospects and trying to guess the draft. Here is my current lotto mock.

    1-cavs: Joel Embiid (c, kansas fr)

    the first overall pick is up in the air, but i have been on the embiid bandwagon for months assuming his back checks out. And recent reports are that is back is looking good. He is a 7 footer with huge potential on both sides the court. A great athlete, he has actual skills and a solid frame to go with it all. Nice shooting touch out to 18 feet. Good soft hands down low. Plus since the cavs drafted an undersized defensively challenged pf last year, they really need an athletic defensive center to balance the post game.

    2-bucks: Andrew Wiggins (sf, kansas fr)

    Wiggins is an elite level athlete with major potential on both ends the court. A nice jumper and decent handle. He did not show the level of consistency attacking offensively as most would have hoped, but the upside is there and many think he will actually go number one as he was considered the consensus top pick a year ago coming out of highschool. Size, athleticism, defense and jump shot are all there. Just needs to mentally develop an edge and show improved one on one skills.

    3-sixers: Jabari Parker (sf, duke fr)

    Parker is the most offensively ready of anyone in this draft. He is a big 6-9 sf who some think could even play pf. He gets a lot of carmelo anthony comparisons and for good reason. He loves physical contact and attacks the rim hard. He also a very solid handle and a nice step back jumper off the dribble. The safest of these top 3 picks because he should be able to contribute immediately at the offensive end. But what puts him behind embiid and wiggins is the defensive end where he was a sub par defender even by college standards and gets beat off the dribble far too easily if he does indeed play sf.

    4-Magic: Dante Exum (pg/sg, Australia)

    Exum is a bit of an unknown because he played vs weak highschool level comp in Australia this past year and is really just riding the wave of a break out performance in a highschool all-star game where he led the world squad over a US squad led by the top us highschool players a year ago. But he has good size at 6-6 and an explosive first step that he uses to blow by defenders to get into the lane at will. Questionable jumpshot but should do enough off the dribble and in transition and defensively to allow him time to improve the jumper similar to tony parker.

    5-Jazz: Noah Vonleh (pf/c, Indiana fr)

    This is where the draft starts to really get tricky and it's up to each individual team to decide whats best as the talent is very close from here on out. Vonleh is a 6-9 big man with a freakish long wingspan and the largest handsize of anyone in this draft. He palms the ball like its a tennis ball. He also has a very nice dribble and an excellent jump shot for a big man. He shot close to 50% from three in his one college season and vids of his workouts seem to suggest he can be a legit deep threat. But its his rebounding that really stands out. He grabbed over 9 boards per game as a freshman at indiana and really seemed to enjoy the physical game down low. Not an explosive athlete and very basic with his post moves though.

    6-Celtics: Aaron Gordon (pf/sf, Arizona fr)

    This pick is made slightly based on rumors circulating that the celtics are leaning heavily towards Gordon. He is a an elite level athlete who really gets after it defensively. He can guard both front court positions. He will run the court as well as any pf there is in the NBA. Lots of bounce in his step and he has a decent skill set with above average ball handling and passing. Offensively he is a work in progress though. Not a post up threat and struggles finishing in traffic as he is skinny for a big. His jumper was down right broken during his one year of college, but recent videos have surfaced of workouts where his jumper looks much improved and more fluid with him draining numerous nba range threes in a row and looking fluid while doing it as he has said it is his number 1 priority this summer. He is also by far the youngest player in this draft a good 6-7 months younger then fellow freshman who are coming out.

    7-Lakers: Julius Randle (pf, Kentucky fr)

    Randle is a very skilled big who has a nice offensive touch both in the paint and facing the basket. He enjoys contact and will be physical down low when challenged. Nice ball handling skills for a pf. Not considered a major defensive force. Plus there are some concerns about his mental approach. Most scouts prefer to see him focus on staying in the paint where he can be a zach randolph type. However he occasionally gets caught up playing around the perimeter trying to look more like a lamar odom type who becomes passive. Either way, the lakers need a big and randle has an outside chance of proving to be the best player from this draft which is hard to get at 7.

    8-Kings: Marcus Smart (pg/sg, oklahoma st so)

    Smart is a very big and powerful pg who stands about 6-4 and weighs 220 and loves to bully his way to the rim and attacks hard. He is a supreme competitor who leaves all on the court and could be an all-nba caliber defender. The concerns lie with his sub par jump shot and questionable decision making where he will occasionally take terrible shots. Kings need toughness and defense though and smart brings both. His ability to gaurd and play either back position brings extra intrigue for anyone drafting him as they can use him in different lineups.

    9-Hornets: Zach Lavine (sg, ucla fr)

    Lavine did'nt stand out his one year of college where he came off the bench and only scored 9 per game. But his skills have scouts drooling and wondering if he could be the next russel westbrook from ucla that comes in under the radar and takes the league by storm. He measured with a 46" vertical jump during a workout for the lakers which is one of the best ever recorded for an nba hopeful. He makes dunking look effortless. He also has a nice pull up jumper with nba range and good handle. Uses speed well to stay in front of guys defensively. Still super weak physically and has trouble playing through contact. Struggles finishing in traffic. Settles for too many jumpers when he tries to go one on one although he keeps getting better by the day so the inconsistencies he showed at ucla could be long forgotten by teams once they work him out.

    10-sixers: Dario Saric (pf/sf, croatia)

    Saric played some high level ball in europe this past year and excelled averagin over 16 points and 8 rebounds and 3 assists per game playing against men. He is a tweener forward who is will struggle staying in front of sf'd defensively but will do most his damage facing up and pushing the ball and attacking off the dribble. Likes initiating offensive and will constantly move around and cut. Very solid passer with a high bball iq. Can shoot from distance and finish down low but not elite in anyone area offensively. Gets pushed around by stronger bigs. Some concerns that he might not come over right away.

    11-nuggets: Jusuf Nurkic (c bosnia)

    Nukic is a big 7foot 280 lb center who likes to bang down low. He's not a very good athlete, but he does move his feet well and constantly moves aroud battling for rebounds not just standing and watching. Good touch down low with big offensive potential. He played pro overseas where he averaged 11 points and 5 rebounds in just 14 minutes of action per game. He also shot over 60% from the floor and over 80% from the ft line. The guy has lots of tools and looks like big country from his college days back in the 90's from what i've seen.

    12-Magic: Doug Mcdermott (sf creighton sr)

    Mcdermott is an elite level shooter who has gotten tons of run with nba players in various international circuits in recent years and has held his own. He has good size at 6-8 and likes to use his body to carve out space in the mid range. Is working really hard on his lateral quickness and holding his own in one o one workouts with guys perceived to be faster then him which is his big question mark. Should come in and score immediately. Will need to find ways to free himself off the ball to score buckets because its doubtful he will take nba level guys one on one too well.

    13-Wolves: Adrien Payne (pf michigan st sr)

    With love on his way out of town sooner or later, Payne would answer a need at the pf position. He could slide a bit due to age as he is an older senior. But the guy has great size and strength with a mature game that should allow him to contribute immediately. He also has a very nice outside shot that could easily be extended to nba range. Some sites have payne falling to the 20's, but i just think he is too solid and safe to fall too far.

    14-Suns: James Young (sg, Kentucky fr)

    Young is a very smooth playing 6-7 sg with a nice stroke. He settles for too many outside shots, but considering his age and the depth of talent he was surrounded with at kentucky, there is optimism he can obtain an aggressive attacking style of offense off the dribble to compliment his already nice shooting touch. Size is a major plus as it should allow him to compete defensively and make up ground vs quicker opponents. He really picked up his level of play as the tournament went on and helped lead the wildcats to the title game. The suns already have nice wing scorers. But with 3 first round picks, they can afford to just draft best available here.
     
  2. llperez22

    llperez22 Red Belt

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    other notable players that could sneak into lottery or just after:

    Gary Harris sg. Excellent shooter and defender. A little undersized for a sg and not a great handle.

    nik stauskas sg. Nice handle and excellent shooter with ability to rise up off the dribble.

    Kyle Anderson, sf. unique skill set for a 6-9 player who played pg in college and was a triple double threat every night. Athleticism is major concern. RUmors are hawks at 15 really like him and have had him in for multiple workouts already.

    Rodney Hood, sf. A knock down shooter who stands 6-8. Questions about defensive and ability to create off dribble. Similar to rashard lewis.

    tyler ennis, pg. very solid and under control pass first pg. No real weaknesses. Personally, i didnt think he took over enough while at syracuse although i did love his aggression while in highschool.

    Elfrid Payton, pg. Payton is 6-4 and and has great defensive potential. Flies up and down court with the ball. But bad shooter and doesnt finsish well in traffic. some compare him to rondo, but he's too out of control for me to like that comparison.
     
  3. AznCezi187

    AznCezi187 Brown Belt

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    Wrong Place Bro
     
  4. Absolute Power

    Absolute Power A Real Human Bean

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  5. llperez22

    llperez22 Red Belt

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    could have sworn i was in sports bar. Mods, can you move it please
     
  6. Lifer

    Lifer Elder

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    You think Vonleh gets shelved for Kanter and Favors if they draft him? Jazz are big on those 2 big boys. It seems it wouldn't make sense to draft a PF/C unless they move one of them.
     
  7. llperez22

    llperez22 Red Belt

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    i agree, but i just dont think there is a wing avaiable at 5 they will like enough to pass up the bigs. Plus vonleh should be able to really stretch the court and play outside on offense while still being a paint protector and rebounder on defense. Im not thinking they give up on either kanter or favors, just that they find a way to use all 3 and rotate them out.
     
  8. callofdutyNBA

    callofdutyNBA Brown Belt

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    I would not take Embid 1st, his back issues worries me. Wiggins is the stud of this draft, and Exam is a huge mystery.
     
  9. callofdutyNBA

    callofdutyNBA Brown Belt

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    Watch out for Zach Lavine & Tyler Ennis. Either of them could be a 9-14 picks
     
  10. Kingz

    Kingz Gold Belt

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    Well, the last thing the Kings need is another guy who can't make a jumper. Give me that white can from Creighton all the mocks had us picking a week ago.
     
  11. Breakitdown

    Breakitdown RINGS Platinum Member

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  12. Bargey

    Bargey Red Belt

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    Wiggins is surely a future all star. Parker and Embid I'm unsure about. I hope Exum lives up to the hype - he looks the goods.
     
  13. Shawn91111

    Shawn91111 Brown Belt

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    Ennis was aggressive the last 4-5 games of the season. His weakness can be his jump shooting, outside shooting to a degree and he doesnt really look to push the ball too much.
     
  14. Pride23

    Pride23 Purple Belt

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    Order is unpredictable. I think Stauskas is definitely in the lottery though. Payne im pretty confident is not. I could see any of Lavine, Mcdermott, Nurkic, and Young being outside the lottery as well.
     
  15. Rasha

    Rasha Ridin' the Rainbow Wagon

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    the first few picks seem to be justified, even if they are a little overhyped...

    Reading through scout reprts I can't help but wonder how would somebody like Divac or Kukoc do in this draft. My oppinion is they would be top 5 consensus picks as their resume and skills were far better than 90% of this draft. Dario Saric is considered the top european pick but achievement wise he is nowhere near Divac or Kukoc, orskill wise really...
     
  16. Pride23

    Pride23 Purple Belt

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    I didnt follow there careers as prospects so I cant speak for them being more accomplished or not but Saric has already built an impressive resume at the age of 20. Skill wise youre right, they are no where near Sarics level. Saric is an elite passer, with great vision, ability to create and handle the ball at 6'10". He is better than most NBA point guards in those areas.
     
  17. callofdutyNBA

    callofdutyNBA Brown Belt

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    Exum reminds me of Penny Hardaway, he's one of those players that's either gonna be a star or bust.

    Randle, Ennis, Vonleh have been making noise at the draft combine
     
  18. jrams

    jrams Black Belt

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    How was he subpar on the defensive end compared to Wiggins when he had a better defensive rating and defensive win shares despite playing defense out of position and not having another elite defender with him? Embiid was the best defensive player in the big 12 and was blocking shots at an elite rate. He was a great safety blanket for a wing player to play aggressive on the perimeter. Parker didn't have that luxury. Parker was first in defensive rating on his team while Wiggins was 9th. Wiggins also had a coach who has routinely been a top defensive coach; Self has never been below top 15 in adjusted defense.

    Embiid was an elite defender, Jabari was above average and Wiggy was an average defender in college. The only claims to Parker being a bad defender and Wiggins being elite are just anecdotal. Both were lazy wing defenders but Jabari used his length to contest around the rim while Wiggins was passing his guy off.


    I think KJ McDaniels could have a Parsons' like impact. He has a nice all around game.
     
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2014
  19. llperez22

    llperez22 Red Belt

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    well i obviously dont watch every game. My basis is on a few things. Articles i have read particularly from draft sites that do extensive research of these prospects and those sites agree parker is a defensive liability and wiggins was not. Secondly i routinely visit an basketball chat forum (not this one) that talks about all kinds of players strengths and weaknesses and from what ive read there, the people seem to agree he is a defensive liability while wiggins is not. And, just so you dont think im full nothing more then regurgitating others opinions, i have seen both guys numerous times throughout the year. In fact when ucla (my team) played duke at madison square garden this year, kyle "slo mo" anderson blew right by parker one on one a few times with no screen whatsover. Just crossed him and got all the way to the rim. In fact the other chat site i visit even created a thread about how parker couldnt stay in front of anderson just as i was watching it.
     
  20. llperez22

    llperez22 Red Belt

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    in fact, if you go over to espn.com right now, they have an insider article on the home page comparing wiggins and parker with analysis of each by basketball experts chad ford and jay bilas. Here are some of their coments about the defensive differences between the 2:

    " Wiggins is also the superior defender"-bilas

    "Parker is behind Wiggins on the defensive end, both on and off the ball."-bilas

    "Yes, I have questions about his defense -- as do scouts -- but I think he'll ultimately be able to guard 4s in the NBA, and even if he can't, he'll be able to score enough to justify being on the floor. He won't be the only NBA All-Star who can't or doesn't guard anyone." -ford on parker
     

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