Tony would lose to nate, Kevin lee was doing surprisingly well against Tony with his boxing. Diaz would tear him up on the feet and they would cancel each other out on the ground.
Ferguson is a good wrestler but he never uses it offensively, I don't see him shooting takedowns or trying to bully nate in the clinch and those would realistically be his best chances to win the fight. One of his best weapons is his pressure and cardio but nate will not get tired so that doesn't help him much.
I'm a fan of tony, he is a great fighter and entertaining as hell in the cage but people are riding pretty high on him right now because he just won, it happens all the time on Sherdog.
Nate is just not a good stylistic matchup for him. I still think Tony can beat pretty much every LW in the world, he can beat Conor if he uses his grappling offensively but if he chooses to strike he will get finished early.
It's all about matchups.