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My Breakdown of Aldo-McGregor (long)

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by StoneTheCrow, Jan 20, 2015.

  1. StoneTheCrow

    StoneTheCrow Brown Belt

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    This fight is most likely going to be the biggest in the history of the FW division. We have one of the sports most dominant, longest reigning champions facing off against a hugely charismatic challenger, with both men having shown a penchant for the spectacular. With all of McGregor's bravado, slew of highlight reel finishes, and the UFC shoveling coal into the furnace of his hype train like a methed-out Casey Jones, it's easy to forget that he is the least accomplished of Aldo's challengers thus far. It's also easy to see why a lot of spectators feel that this is irrelevant.

    Jose Aldo has dominated the featherweight division since it was still part of the WEC. His 8-second Tony Jaa-esque flying-double-knee KO against Cub Swanson planted him firmly in the MMA community's consciousness and his subsequent devastation of incumbent champion Mike Thomas Brown and 5 round battering of the origional featherweight superstar solidified his claim to both the 145 pound crown and perpetual placement on P4P lists. Ever since, he has continued fighting and usually dominating the finest opponents the UFC can throw at him, rarely showing any sign of weakness. The lone caveat in that statement is his nearly disastrous performance against Mark Hominick (incidentally, one of his less heralded adversaries) in which he followed a dominant opening 15 minutes with a complete melt-down in the championship rounds which nearly allowed the challenger to walk away with a draw (which most observers felt would have been the right call). This rightfully opened up conjecture regarding Aldo's cardio and heart at the time, and whether a string of injuries had simply aged him before his time. However subsequent 5 round thrashings of vaunted contenders such as Kenny Florian and prolonged back and forth wars such as his rematch with Mendes interspersed with some of his vintage KO's have rebutted all those questions and pretty much proven that night with Hominick to have been an anomally.

    While Aldo has a black-belt in BJJ and has shown occasional flashes of brilliance on the ground, the base of his game is his stand-up. Very few fighters at any weight class have the combination of speed, power, versatility and technicality that Aldo brings to the table. His leg kicks--among the best in MMA-- are always front and center and serve both to impede his opponents movement and set up his more KO orientated strikes down the road. His footwork his excellent both on offense, cutting off angles and keeping in prime punching position almost constantly, as well as defense rarely allowing his opponent to push him into unfavorable territory or giving clean punching opportunities while efficiently countering himself and showing top-notch takedown defense to boot. Perhaps most important factor for Aldo in this fight is his experience. Bear in mind, the champion is still only 28 years old but has already fought a who's who of his divisions best fighters as well as a former LW champion and a two time challenger from that division as well. He just persevered through the toughest fight of his career in the form of elite wrestler turned devastating puncher Chad Mendes. In all likelihood, Jose Aldo right now is the best he's ever been and perhaps ever will be.

    The core of McGregor's game is his absurdly powerful striking. What differentiates him from every other heavy-handed would be contender is the unique manner in which he implements it. McGregor's liberal use of karate and tae kwon do kicks give him a much longer effective striking range and wider array of attack angles than the vast majority of MMAists--and these are not wild, flashy, haymakers. He has a superb sense of timing and accuracy when throwing these traditionally low-percentage attacks. On top of that, he has alarming power in his hands. The way his opponents react when getting hit with a casually flicked-out jab is typical of what you see when most fighters land a flush overhand or hook. That is in no way an exaggeration. Heads snap, eyes roll, and knees buckle. It's possible that other fighters in the division may "top out" with higher power in their best punches, but shot for shot, blow for blow, nobody in the division packs more blunt force into each strike than Connor McGregor, not by a long shot. He ties it all together with an odd not-quite-fast-but-certainly-not-slow "stalking" pace that he explodes out of, throwing sudden violent punch-kick flurries then settles seamlessly back into. While he's not truly the fastest of the fast at featherweight, he is definitely quicker than your average fighter and his keen sense of timing, odd angles, and sudden/frequent pace changes make him extremely difficult to time or predict and his power leaves precious little room for error.

    The other side of the coin is that McGregor's low-handed, wide-footed stance and constant aggression makes him very hittable. Siver and Poirier were both able to land a number of clean counters against "Notorious" in their abbreviated encounters, but were unable to even phase him. Whether this was more due to a granite chin on McGregor, or their own lack of KO power is unclear but is a question that the champion will surely look to answer. Siver was also able to consistently find the Irishman's legs with kicks, even managing to sweep him on two occasions. Though ultimately fruitless for Siver, it is something worth keeping in mind when you consider how notoriously devastating Aldo's leg kicks are, and that they are a fundamental lynch-pin of his game. Also of note: The weakest opponent Aldo has fought in the last several years (KZ) holds a highlight reel finish over the best opponent McGregor has faced in his entire career (Poirier).

    In the end, I feel that while McGregor is no dead-horse or even necessarily a longshot in this fight, the idiosyncrasies of his offensive style play into Aldo's strengths and the difference in experience against top flight opponents is severe. I could very well see Connor rattling Aldo early on and just continuing to lay it on him until the ref calls it, but I think the more likely scenario is a fight which is tightly contested early on and that sees both men land heavy leather, but that Aldo steadily begins to take over as the fight progresses. My pick is Aldo by TKO late in the 5th.
     
  2. lefontes

    lefontes Green Belt

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    Good breakdown
     
  3. Kirin

    Kirin Death Operator Platinum Member

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    Stopped reading at "least accomplished".

    Get the fuck out of here with that bullshit.
     
  4. StoneTheCrow

    StoneTheCrow Brown Belt

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    He is. You could maybe argue that KZ was less accomplished but he at least had 2 wins over upper echelon opponents at the time as opposed to 1.
     
  5. TdotK

    TdotK Purple Belt

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    You forgot to add that Brandao landed like 4-5 really good clean head shots on him.

    Conor gets tagged in fire fights. Now, nothings wrong with that, but he's getting into fire fights in the first place, and against sub par competition.

    Aldo is like Floyd Mayweather. Calculated, and precise with his defense, and offense most of the times. The difference is, Aldo has to worry about TDs, so it changes the entire dynamic of his striking.

    Conor poses no TD threat. We might possibly see the most beastly version of Aldo we've ever seen.
     
  6. bullfish

    bullfish Green Belt

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    good point
     
  7. schwe30

    schwe30 Black Belt

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    Can we make a deal? How about we hold off the breakdowns of this fight till a month before the fight? Or just make one thread and put them all in there?
     
  8. spacediver99

    spacediver99 White Belt

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    Stone, you write well, sir.
     
  9. elbowsandwiches

    elbowsandwiches Black Belt

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    [​IMG]
     
  10. gameoverman

    gameoverman Purple Belt

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    Why?

    There has been and will continue to be a neverending parade of shit threads on Conor since forever.

    Its nice to actually have a few with some rational thoughts and stuff...
     
  11. Yolandabecool**

    Yolandabecool** Brown Belt

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    [​IMG]

    The fight is going to come down to this gif. Conor possesses a very wide stance. He can maintain distance and rattle off an array of kicks all whilst maintaining safety and balance. This allows him to back his opponent into a corner and land heavier blows such as his straight left.

    Where he will get into danger however is the inside leg kick. Anything to the outside he will check with ease but the right leg has the potential to be kicked out by Aldo.

    The big question will be who controls the distance and pace. If Aldo is forced onto the back foot his ability to throw out McGregor's game with the inside leg kick will be very very difficult.

    [​IMG]

    The big problem however for Aldo is that he can't just chop away at the inside leg without elite lateral movement. As you can see above - If Conor is dictating the distance his stance locks off the ability to chop away at his legs. Aldo will need to close the distance but he will also need to force Conor into lateral movement to create space.

    IMO however, Aldo doesn't have the length to control the fight. Conor can flick out jabs harder than most of Aldo's opponents can land strikes.

    [​IMG]

    The other factor to consider is that while the lateral movement can open up the inside leg kick, it can also circle him into Conor's left. IMO it's only a matter of time until Aldo gets stopped.
     
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2015
  12. Yolandabecool**

    Yolandabecool** Brown Belt

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    Edit - Double.
     
  13. Smoking TRT

    Smoking TRT Orange Belt

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    Man you are putting a lot into your trolling. I respect that.
     
  14. TdotK

    TdotK Purple Belt

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    Cool story, but this is where strength of opponents comes in.

    An above average NBA team will look like world beaters when facing the Knicks or the Lakers, but what happens when they're consistently going up against the Spurs, Warriors, and the Hawks?

    When has Conir ever faced someone that didn't just stand right in front of him, or didn't lose before the fight started?

    Hell, I'd give Dennis Bermudez a huge chance of beating McGregor, let alone Aldo.
     
  15. egg so skeleton

    egg so skeleton Orange Belt

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    This isn't a breakdown. You just vaguely listed the attributes of each fighter that everybody already knows about. "The core of McGregor's game is his absurdly powerful striking," and "Aldo has a black-belt in BJJ" is about as technical as you managed to get.

    It's just like any other speculative post about this fight from any other swinging dick. Everybody thinks they're Jack Slack these days.
     
  16. Yolandabecool**

    Yolandabecool** Brown Belt

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    You can take the opponent out of the equation and look at the individual skills of the fighter.

    Sometimes they don't need to face elite competition to see how damaging they can potentially be to a future opponent [Irrespective of how accomplished said fighter is].

    We saw a similar scenario prior to the first Anderson v Weidman fight. Over 75% of Sherdog tipped Anderson to win & around 70% of those people predicted the victory by KO.

    It's hard to push aside facts from hype. When you break it down however Conor is an awful match-up for Aldo. Bones v Shogun level awful. I'll bet my account that Conor wins this fight if there's any takers.
     
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2015
  17. bob

    bob Ricky Gervais belt

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    i support this... its been less than a week and half the forums trying to channel robin black.
     
  18. bob

    bob Ricky Gervais belt

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    in another thread someone blew my mind with 'mcgregor controls the distance with his footwork....'
     
  19. Lustercross

    Lustercross Brown Belt

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    Why do people keep bringing up Aldo's leg kick? KZ checked his kick which broke his foot and Mcgregor already showed that he can check an inside leg kick by breaking some guys foot in Ireland. Aldo is going to have to train kicking with his weak leg.
     
  20. Jin Akutsu

    Jin Akutsu Gengar Belt Platinum Member

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    [GFY]LeftHorribleHoopoe[/GFY]

    In the UFC against Max Holloway, Conor broke Max's foot on a check as well.

    [TWEET]368925750377717760[/TWEET]
     
  21. Lustercross

    Lustercross Brown Belt

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    Exactly! I really think we are going to see grappler aldo once he sees that Mcgregor is too much in the standup. Luckily he trains with Gunnar Nelson so he will be prepared.
     

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