Social Misery index showing Democrats face midterm route losing 30 to 40 seats

White Whale

White Whale

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...biden-as-key-economy-gauge-flags-30-seat-loss

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/aug/1/biden-shatters-misery-index/

https://nypost.com/2022/08/01/democ...t-as-voters-rage-at-biden-misery-index-shows/

"Voters rage at Biden over the state of the economy is likely in another shellacking for Democrats in November's midterm elections - which could cost them 40-plus seats in congress."

The misery index calculates unemployment rates and inflation. People can't afford rent with the increased costs of fuel and food.

Battle ground states such as Ohio and Nevada misery index is higher than the national version which is more bad news for Democrats.

Inflation, gas prices, crime and the border are going cost the DNC everything. It's depressing going to the grocery store seeing some food doubled in price.
 
We really need a button on here, so I know when to believe polls and when not to believe polls.

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44nutman said:
We really need a button on here, so I know when to believe polls and when not to believe polls.

s066162106.jpg
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“The reason why the misery index still matters is that it's really genuine misery for so many Americans,” Luntz says. “Food and fuel inflation is so high and so universal, and impacts every voter in every community in every state.”

This quote was in the bloomberg and New York Post articles. The misery index is just showing how American citizens are feeling.
 
Fake Doctor said:
Don't worry guys - a big spending package with lots of climate change money is coming in to save the day!
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The only time you can get a Republican to care about spending is when a Democrat is doing the spending.
The GOP lost the budget high ground after watching Deficit Donny average 2 trillion a year. I thought Obama was bad, but Deficit Donny was like hold my beer.
Peppridge Farms remembers when Fox News used to run the deficit counter at the bottom of the screen when Obama was spending an ass load, then it magically disappeared when Deficit Donny was spending twice as much. 1st fucking thing Deficit Donny did was increase spending, his first fucking budget increased spending. It's almost like Fox redirected the Rubes anger towards something else. Dont worry now that there is a Democrat President, Fox News will again be clutching pearls over spending. It has become a fucking game, that surprisingly too many people still fall for it.
 
44nutman said:
The only time you can get a Republican to care about spending is when a Democrat is doing the spending.
The GOP lost the budget high ground after watching Deficit Donny average 2 trillion a year. I thought Obama was bad, but Deficit Donny was like hold my beer.
Peppridge Farms remembers when Fox News used to run the deficit counter at the bottom of the screen when Obama was spending an ass load, then it magically disappeared when Deficit Donny was spending twice as much. 1st fucking thing Deficit Donny did was increase spending, his first fucking budget increased spending. It's almost like Fox redirected the Rubes anger towards something else. Dont worry now that there is a Democrat President, Fox News will again be clutching pearls over spending. It has become a fucking game, that surprisingly too many people still fall for it.
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True - but that's beside the point I'm getting at. Whatever a bunch of partisan posters in this forum, or in the US at large, think, when midterms are coming up fast during a financial crisis and the Biden administration is pushing for more spending with climate at the forefront, it likely isn't going to help them.

Again, this is a completely separate point to the one you're pushing - which I actually agree with, as Republicans were cheering on Trump when he was breaking the bank - and all I'm saying is that this is going to be a lodestone around Democratic necks during the midterms if the economy doesn't for-real improve drastically. I mean for-real, as in, not the pie-in-the-sky cherry picked metrics way Biden keeps insisting on. It's not a good look for the guy redefining what a recession is and insisting the economy is great while people are hurting to spend a boatload of money before an election - makes him look wildly, wildly disconnected. That's probably true though.
 
Fake Doctor said:
True - but that's beside the point I'm getting at. Whatever a bunch of partisan posters in this forum, or in the US at large, think, when midterms are coming up fast during a financial crisis and the Biden administration is pushing for more spending with climate at the forefront, it likely isn't going to help them.

Again, this is a completely separate point to the one you're pushing - which I actually agree with, as Republicans were cheering on Trump when he was breaking the bank - and all I'm saying is that this is going to be a lodestone around Democratic necks during the midterms if the economy doesn't for-real improve drastically. I mean for-real, as in, not the pie-in-the-sky cherry picked metrics way Biden keeps insisting on. It's not a good look for the guy redefining what a recession is and insisting the economy is great while people are hurting to spend a boatload of money before an election - makes him look wildly, wildly disconnected. That's probably true though.
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To quote the Rajun Cajun, its the economy stupid!
I thought the GOP was going to run away with the mid terms, but then they went too far right just like the left went too far left.
Abortion is going to be an issue for the GOP. A majority of Americans support a womans right to choose. Its going to be brought up in the debates. It will not matter in gerrymandered districts, but Senate seats it will matter.
Also there is a reason the GOP is threatening to stop paying Donny's legal bills if he announces he will run prior to mid terms. He is the rights version of Hillary. He motivates people to vote against him. Donny does not liked to be cucked unless its by Trudeau, with his wife and daughter, so not sure if he will hold off announcing. IT also does not help Fox is putting out Polls that say Desantis is the GOP favorite, Donny's fragile ego cant handle that, hell it could not handle losing to Ole Man Joe.
The only person Old man Joe could beat is Trump, so the Dems have a problem in the 2024 Presidential unless Donny wins the GOP nod. If that happens in 2024 all of America loses no matter who the winner is.
 
44nutman said:
To quote the Rajun Cajun, its the economy stupid!
I thought the GOP was going to run away with the mid terms, but then they went too far right just like the left went too far left.
Abortion is going to be an issue for the GOP. A majority of Americans support a womans right to choose. Its going to be brought up in the debates. It will not matter in gerrymandered districts, but Senate seats it will matter.
Also there is a reason the GOP is threatening to stop paying Donny's legal bills if he announces he will run prior to mid terms. He is the rights version of Hillary. He motivates people to vote against him. Donny does not liked to be cucked unless its by Trudeau, with his wife and daughter, so not sure if he will hold off announcing. IT also does not help Fox is putting out Polls that say Desantis is the GOP favorite, Donny's fragile ego cant handle that, hell it could not handle losing to Ole Man Joe.
The only person Old man Joe could beat is Trump, so the Dems have a problem in the 2024 Presidential unless Donny wins the GOP nod. If that happens in 2024 all of America loses no matter who the winner is.
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Heh, I used that exact quote on this issue yesterday.

I don't necessarily disagree with much of what you say, but it's all beside my point. You're not wrong that the GOP's ties to the whole Roe V Wade thing are going to hurt them, that Trump's ego with Desantis being prominent being an issue, etc etc... That being said, if there is a big spending bill passed with climate change on its headline during a financial recession, that's going to hurt Democrats come the midterms. We'll see how the factors play out - I think that Roe won't be the cudgel Democrats hope it is since it's still perfectly legal in most (all?) of the places where a majority of the voting base isn't against it, but I wouldn't bet money on that prediction. I think that Democrats showing what will be argued to be fiscal irresponsibility driven by pie-in-the-sky extremist ideology is going to be a ball and chain around them in the midterms that will be tough to overcome.

Any which way, we'll see. This spending bill is retarded - Manchin saved the Democrats from themselves with Build Back Better, but it looks like he's not doing so a second time.
 
Inflation and cost of living will be very hard for the democrats to overcome during the midterms. They might lose horrible. However, the GOP are not doing themselves any favours with banning abortion, voting against gay marriage, voting against VA healthcare (and then caving) and moving towards a theocracy with increasingly crazy candidates. If the economy gets better and democrats keep passing popular bills and stay away from the culture war, then they may have a shot.

As it's looking right now though they will lose the Senate.
 
Sano said:
Inflation and cost of living will be very hard for the democrats to overcome during the midterms. They might lose horrible. However, the GOP are not doing themselves any favours with banning abortion, voting against gay marriage, voting against VA healthcare (and then caving) and moving towards a theocracy with increasingly crazy candidates. If the economy gets better and democrats keep passing popular bills and stay away from the culture war, then they may have a shot.

As it's looking right now though they will lose the Senate.
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It is kind of a funny circumstance. Both sides are so caught up in certain ideological positions that they're pushing candidates and policies that are actively hurting their chances in this election. If the Republicans were to just reign it in, moderate their rhetoric and hold off on some of their more zany policy positions until they win, they get the midterms on lock and could go as batshit as they want after the fact. Similarly for the Democrats, if they were to push a fiscal responsibility angle with action and not just (fairly empty) rhetoric, and maybe tone it down on climate change and things of that sort, until after the election, they'd up their chances significantly. Basically, it's a race to see who can drill a hole in their boat faster.

It's a tougher spot for the Democrats though - they can get this stuff passed, right now, with a bit of work, but that might go away in November whatever they do. That being the case, do they rush through unpopular stuff now and scuttle their midterm shot, or do they hold out on the gamble that they get some important wins in the midterms and push this stuff after the fact? It's a conundrum for their strategists.
 
“Of course, economics is only one part of the calculation that voters make.”
​
This is basically all you need to know.
 
44nutman said:
To quote the Rajun Cajun, its the economy stupid!
I thought the GOP was going to run away with the mid terms, but then they went too far right just like the left went too far left.
Abortion is going to be an issue for the GOP. A majority of Americans support a womans right to choose. Its going to be brought up in the debates. It will not matter in gerrymandered districts, but Senate seats it will matter.
Also there is a reason the GOP is threatening to stop paying Donny's legal bills if he announces he will run prior to mid terms. He is the rights version of Hillary. He motivates people to vote against him. Donny does not liked to be cucked unless its by Trudeau, with his wife and daughter, so not sure if he will hold off announcing. IT also does not help Fox is putting out Polls that say Desantis is the GOP favorite, Donny's fragile ego cant handle that, hell it could not handle losing to Ole Man Joe.
The only person Old man Joe could beat is Trump, so the Dems have a problem in the 2024 Presidential unless Donny wins the GOP nod. If that happens in 2024 all of America loses no matter who the winner is.
Click to expand...
There's so much misinformation out there about abortion. One of my wife's friends came up to stay a couple weeks ago from CA. She's a republican and starred in about how abortion is now banned. "Her other friend told her" we had to explain that it's a state rights issue just like guns.
She was shocked and we had to even show her the law. CA and NV are ok with abortion. She's in both states and didn't even know lol.
 
Sano said:
Inflation and cost of living will be very hard for the democrats to overcome during the midterms. They might lose horrible. However, the GOP are not doing themselves any favours with banning abortion, voting against gay marriage, voting against VA healthcare (and then caving) and moving towards a theocracy with increasingly crazy candidates. If the economy gets better and democrats keep passing popular bills and stay away from the culture war, then they may have a shot.

As it's looking right now though they will lose the Senate.
Click to expand...
Democrats are expected to lose the house. They very well could lose Senate as well. All the GOP has to do to is focus on inflation, fuel prices, crime, the border and education to win.
 
High inflation due to Biden and the Democrats big spending and money printing along with the Democrats war against America's fossil fuel industry and causing a lot of misery.

I don't like most Democrats policies and I hope they lose big in the mid-term election. It would be ideal if the GOP won enough seats that they could override a Biden veto.

As I read ~

Armageddon Looms for the Democrat Party

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2022/08/armageddon_looms_for_the_democrat_party.html

excerpt:

That deafening sound Americans are hearing all around them is the Good Ship Democratic Party crashing against the jagged rocks of political reality.

With the November 2022 midterm elections just weeks away, early projections point to a Republican Party electoral tsunami that could bury the Democrat party for the next several voting cycles.

Polls by Rasmussen, Emerson, and Trafalgar show the Republicans up by as much as 10% over Democrats in the generic ballot. The Real Clear Politics "poll of polls" has Republicans projected to win a minimum of 223 House seats, the Democrats 179, giving the GOP de facto control of the House of Representatives.

RCP has identified another 33 congressional contests as toss-ups, races considered too close to call. Of those 33 seats 29 were considered solidly Democrat until this election cycle. Now Democrats must spend precious resources to defend seats they thought they owned. Republicans could end up with a 240-plus-seat majority.

Just last June, a young Republican female candidate of Hispanic background, Mayra Flores, won a Texas house seat that has been in Democrat hands since the Civil War ended, and did so with the help of a large swath of Hispanics in the district.....
 
White Whale said:
Democrats are expected to lose the house. They very well could lose Senate as well. All the GOP has to do to win is focus on inflation, fuel prices, crime, the border and education to win.
Click to expand...
I'm guessing we'll be in a bigger hole by the time November roles around. Nothing about the markets make any sense.
 
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