Lol. Ironically all the "dumb casuals" would instantly pick Mcgregor and Adesanya.
It takes somebody more knowledgeable of the sport to see ways Poirier or Blachowicz can win, but good one.
Blachowicz has a chance albeit slim imo cos he's a 205er and Poirier has a decent chance if he survives late into the 2nd. But I'm a dumb casual.
I think YOU are confused. MMA odds are based on bets placed, not "we think Poirier has a 30% chance to win".
I guarantee you there is no other fighter in the sport that gets betted on by casuals more than Mcgregor, just look at the odds of him V Mayweather and he had 0% chance to win, nevermind 30%.
You think that many casuals are betting on Poirier? No chance. It's fans of the sport who know Poirier and are predicting him to win based on numerous variables.
It's like saying casuals predicted Anderson Silva to beat Chris Weidman, or casuals predicted Teofimo Lopez to beat Lomachenko. No. Casuals go for the favourite, it's the ones with knowledge of the sport and knowledge of the underdog that predict them to win.
Saying only dumb casuals predict Poirier to win is stupid as fuck.
You removed your post so now I look like an asshole
If Poirier follows the blueprint to beat McGregor, he wins. That blueprint is to wrestle/grapple with him for 2 rounds, wear on him, clinch up and throw elbows, cover his mouth, make him carry your weight. Then turn up the heat in rounds 3, 4, and 5 and go for the KO/submission when he's been beaten down.
McGregor has a way of making fighters tense up in the moment though and forget their plans. If Poirier tries to make a point and goes hogwild with the striking in round 1, he could get his lights put out again. And we know if Herb Dean is the ref he'll be eager to make a stoppage in favor of McGregor at the first chance.
So it's a tough one.
here's the problem, for dustin to score a takedown, he needs to not get knocked out first
Username checks outLol. Ironically all the "dumb casuals" would instantly pick Mcgregor and Adesanya.
It takes somebody more knowledgeable of the sport to see ways Poirier or Blachowicz can win, but good one.
Blachowicz has a chance albeit slim imo cos he's a 205er and Poirier has a decent chance if he survives late into the 2nd. But I'm a dumb casual.