McGregor / Porier & Adesanya / Blachowicz - odds

The odds for a poirier / jan multi are tasty. They both have at least a 50% chance to win, regardless of what the odds say.

Therefore if you are earning more than 50% return, it is a good bet (from a gamblers perspective, if you made 1000s of these bets)

Izzy is great but Jan is durable and hits hard AF. Poirier has been in great form, and most importantly, got to skip the whole press tour of Mcgregor getting in his head.

I think it's easy 50/50
 
JonJonesLost3times said:
I think YOU are confused. MMA odds are based on bets placed, not "we think Poirier has a 30% chance to win".
I guarantee you there is no other fighter in the sport that gets betted on by casuals more than Mcgregor, just look at the odds of him V Mayweather and he had 0% chance to win, nevermind 30%.
You think that many casuals are betting on Poirier? No chance. It's fans of the sport who know Poirier and are predicting him to win based on numerous variables.
It's like saying casuals predicted Chris Weidman to beat Anderson Silva, or casuals predicted Teofimo Lopez to beat Lomachenko. No. Casuals go for the favourite, it's the ones with knowledge of the sport and knowledge of the underdog that predict them to win.
Saying only dumb casuals predict Poirier to win is stupid as fuck.
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Odds have moved in Conor v Poirier some, but nothing like the 25-1 to 5-1 that MayMac was. More like -240 to -310
 
PeacePipe said:
The odds for a poirier / jan multi are tasty. They both have at least a 50% chance to win, regardless of what the odds say.

Therefore if you are earning more than 50% return, it is a good bet (from a gamblers perspective, if you made 1000s of these bets)

Izzy is great but Jan is durable and hits hard AF. Poirier has been in great form, and most importantly, got to skip the whole press tour of Mcgregor getting in his head.

I think it's easy 50/50
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hear, hear.

and I will have this very multi.
 
PeacePipe said:
The odds for a poirier / jan multi are tasty. They both have at least a 50% chance to win, regardless of what the odds say.

Therefore if you are earning more than 50% return, it is a good bet (from a gamblers perspective, if you made 1000s of these bets)

Izzy is great but Jan is durable and hits hard AF. Poirier has been in great form, and most importantly, got to skip the whole press tour of Mcgregor getting in his head.

I think it's easy 50/50
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Eh, I disagree. One, not everyone is liquid enough to place enough bets until the law of large numbers kicks into effect. Also, the degree to which a fight outcome is random can be dramatically overestimated.

Like the Holloway fight we just saw. Based on Max's gameplan going into the fight, the outcome was pretty much determined. It wasn't random. We just didn't know it.

Similarly, McGregor might just have Poirier's number. We just don't know it. This lack of information masquerades as randomness.

Knowledge is power.
 
DivineMind said:
Eh, I disagree. One, not everyone is liquid enough to place enough bets until the law of large numbers kicks into effect. Also, the degree to which a fight outcome is random can be dramatically overestimated.

Like the Holloway fight we just saw. Based on Max's gameplan going into the fight, the outcome was pretty much determined. It wasn't random. We just didn't know it.

Similarly, McGregor might just have Poirier's number. We just don't know it. This lack of information masquerades as randomness.

Knowledge is power.
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But the information we know is that there will be no press tour, and limited crowd. Plus Mcgregor has not been as active recently.

So based off this information, and the mental game of Conor, I think we can deduce that Poirier is a good bet.
 
PeacePipe said:
But the information we know is that there will be no press tour, and limited crowd. Plus Mcgregor has not been as active recently.

So based off this information, and the mental game of Conor, I think we can deduce that Poirier is a good bet.
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Hehe, we have limited information is the point.
 
DivineMind said:
Eh, I disagree. One, not everyone is liquid enough to place enough bets until the law of large numbers kicks into effect. Also, the degree to which a fight outcome is random can be dramatically overestimated.

Like the Holloway fight we just saw. Based on Max's gameplan going into the fight, the outcome was pretty much determined. It wasn't random. We just didn't know it.

Similarly, McGregor might just have Poirier's number. We just don't know it. This lack of information masquerades as randomness.

Knowledge is power.
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That can work both ways though. Poirer could do the same thing
 
Odds are correct.

Both fights will take place standing, and both McGregor and Izzy are the better strikers.
 
JonJonesLost3times said:
Lol. Ironically all the "dumb casuals" would instantly pick Mcgregor and Adesanya.
It takes somebody more knowledgeable of the sport to see ways Poirier or Blachowicz can win, but good one.
Blachowicz has a chance albeit slim imo cos he's a 205er and Poirier has a decent chance if he survives late into the 2nd. But I'm a dumb casual.
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Lmao even professional fighters can’t pick the right fights. The sport is very competitive. Its a fight anything can happen. Ive been betting on sports for almost 2 decades. Mma is one of the hardest to predict.
 
BRASIL WAND said:
I think Adesanya should be a heavier favorite imo... Jan is absolutely out of his league lol, an embarrassment for the LHW division missing Jones.


<JonesLaugh>
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Glover friggin Texeria is the best LHW in UFCs current roster and jones beat him a decade ago when Glover was in his physical prime.
 
He stated anybody that picks Poirier or Jan to win are dumb casuals.
I said every casual is going to pick Mcgregor and Adesanya. The same way every casual picks every big star because they don't know enough about the underdog.
My point was those picking Poirier and Blachowicz aren't dumb casuals, to think Poirier is going to beat Mcgregor especially after being beaten decisively by him takes a decent level of knowledge of the sport to see ways in which he can win to the point where you favour him.
I'm a boxing casual when it comes to the smaller weights, I had no idea Teofimo Lopez would beat Lomachenko, no dumb casuals did. 'Cos Lomachenko was the hyped up star. Just like here we have 2 superstars.
 
DivineMind said:
Not if his true chance of winning is like 2%.
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Why would you think that?

That's sort of Cm punk odds.

I think he's a good shot given no press your, and recent activity.

I think his current odds are disrespectful, but this usually occurs with McGregor as his worth is inflated by his fame
 
Jan is the smart value bet. He can very well knock Israel dead if he lands and I'm thinking he could grapplefuck Israel too if he can get his hands on him. Jan doesn't give a shit about a Wall and Stall strategy. He will channel his inner Kamaru Usman.
 
Bearknuckle said:
Lmao even professional fighters can’t pick the right fights. The sport is very competitive. Its a fight anything can happen. Ive been betting on sports for almost 2 decades. Mma is one of the hardest to predict.
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lol its the easiest, the favourite wins 68% of the time. whats easier?

Or do you mean predicting where the value is?
 
BRASIL WAND said:
I think Adesanya should be a heavier favorite imo... Jan is absolutely out of his league lol, an embarrassment for the LHW division missing Jones.


<JonesLaugh>
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Your mother is an embarassment at sucking dicks.
 
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