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Matching Up Paddy Pimblett

McKinney. Tko 1st round


Paddy won’t blow up in between fights bc his jaw will be wired shut and drinking through a straw for 6-8 weeks.

As much as I'd love to see that, McKinney is probably about to get derailed (again) by little bro Bonfim in a few weeks unfortunately.
 
Don't rankings get updated tomorrow? If so, might invalidate what I'm about to say, but...

Paddy -- technically speaking -- is on a four-fight win streak right now. If he were any other up-and-comer in the same spot, everyone would be fully expecting him to either fight a ranked opponent or at the very least fight one of the guys in the Top 20/Top 25. Someone like Kutateladze, Moises, Dober, Green, Alvarez, Gillespie, Riddell, CDF, Klose, etc. The types of dudes who are only one or two good wins away from getting into the rankings themselves (or back into the rankings in some cases).

The way I see it, the UFC has two paths here.

1.) They can slow their roll and book him against a step down in competition while allowing him to headline or co-headline the upcoming London card against a very winnable opponent. This would be, in my mind, more or less a tacit admission on their part that they believe he lost to Gordon and that his ceiling is not as high as they (and his fans) hoped. You can't be 4-0 and go from fighting Jared Gordon to headlining against, say... Trey Ogden, Natan Levy, etc. At best if they go this route they'll give him someone along the lines of Mike Davis, Ludovit Klein, Clay Guida, Mike Trizano, or Claudio Puelles who -- while challenging -- are largely hit-or-miss names that are ranked lower in the global Lightweight standings and present more winnable fights for Paddy.

2.) The UFC can decide to strike while the iron is hot and use this opportunity to get Paddy into the rankings right now while they and their golden boy have a chance... by having him take the big spot in London against none other than El Cucuy. Tony is #15 at the moment and won't be there for long given recent "trends" in the man's career and in the division. Ferguson is the only remotely favorable match-up for Paddy in the Top 15 and even then I don't consider Pimblett some overwhelming 5-to-1 favorite against Ferguson or anything. But soon Tony will fall out of the rankings and further into obscurity and he'll be replaced in that #15 slot by some killer like Dober or Guram who Paddy has exceedingly little chance of beating.

Not sure which route they'll go.

Really liking this post sir.
Thing is, Dober is one place above him in the rankings right now.

They both won so I imagine they'll be close tomorrow when the updated rankings come out.
Wouldn't it be the move to put him against Dober, since Dober isn't great in the ground?

I personally think Dober wins that, but above Dober seems like a minefield for Paddy.
Im thinking Paddy is only gonna keep bouncing off his ceiling, because he's clearly there.
 
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I could also see them skipping the Title Shot and going Guida in March in UK, then McGregor for international fight week. Might be their best shot to make that happen and it's a win win. If Conor loses, Paddy gets all the hype in the world for a Title shot, if Paddy loses, McGregor is back in the win column which gives them tons of options and Paddy probably doesn't take a huge hit considering.
wow, when u put it that way seems like a very reasonable thing to do.
 
As much as I'd love to see that, McKinney is probably about to get derailed (again) by little bro Bonfim in a few weeks unfortunately.
That's gonna be a hell of a fight, as long as it lasts.
 
Really liking this post sir.
Think is, Dober is one place above him in the rankings right now.

They both win so I imagine they'll be close tomorrow when the updated rankings come out.
Wouldn't it be the move to put him against Dober, since Dober isn't great in the ground?

I personally think Dober wins that, but above Dober seems like a minefield for Paddy.
Im thinking Paddy is only gonna keep bouncing off his ceiling, because he's clearly there.

Well, that depends on a lot of things. For one, Dober isn't in the official rankings yet (he might replace Tony when they get updated). And I think he's made it very clear that he presents an enormous threat to someone like Paddy who can be rocked, likes to brawl, and is insanely defensively irresponsible. And while a glance at his record would suggest that he has deficient defensive grappling (55% TDD, multiple submission losses), IMO he has improved in this area. He stuffed one of Islam's TDs and actually managed to draw him all the way into the third. He was totally helpless on the ground, sure, but he actually survived there longer than many others have managed to do since which is no mean feat. Against Dariush he did a lot of damage and stuffed multiple TDs before finally getting caught in that triangle armbar.

I think under the right circumstances Paddy could beat Dober, don't get me wrong -- maybe Drew gets caught up in the brawl, lands some good shots and overswings trying to knock him out, Paddy hits one of his sweeps, and jumps on his back. Crazier things have happened. But Dober is a big favorite in that fight, especially coming off a three-fight win streak where he's finished all those guys with strikes and Paddy has eaten big, clean shots in every single win he's had lol. I think the UFC recognizes that.

If they're going for the most bang for the buck, Tony or arguably Hooker make more sense. Those guys are at least in the Top 15 as of the time of this post and seem to be more shot than Drew with less heat in their hands and exploitable defensive grappling. I think Paddy beats Tony more often than not, but even this diminished version of Dan probably manages to edge him out IMO. Or -- if they want Paddy to fight another unranked guy (which Dober currently is) and thus play it safe with a slow progression a la O'Malley -- then Claudio Puelles and Clay Guida aren't far behind and both present extremely winnable match-ups for him. Clay is a gritty vet and former Strikeforce champ coming off a win, while Puelles until recently was on a five-fight win streak and was thought of so highly that they gave him a shot at the #12 guy (for all the good that did him).

That's gonna be a hell of a fight, as long as it lasts.

Agreed. McKinney is live to clip him early as he always is -- I low-key think he might be one of the most explosive and powerful guys in the division, even more so than Chandler or Gaethje -- but beyond raw power and wrestling I believe Bonfim holds all the cards in regards to cardio, fight IQ, technical striking, composure, etc. I suspect Ismael weathers a fierce early storm and then takes him into deep waters (which, for Terrance, is pretty much anything outside of the first three minutes lmao) before melting him via TKO or Sub in the second half of the bout.
 
Well, that depends on a lot of things. For one, Dober isn't in the official rankings yet (he might replace Tony when they get updated). And I think he's made it very clear that he presents an enormous threat to someone like Paddy who can be rocked, likes to brawl, and is insanely defensively irresponsible. And while a glance at his record would suggest that he has deficient defensive grappling (55% TDD, multiple submission losses), IMO he has improved in this area. He stuffed one of Islam's TDs and actually managed to draw him all the way into the third. He was totally helpless on the ground, sure, but he actually survived there longer than many others have managed to do since which is no mean feat. Against Dariush he did a lot of damage and stuffed multiple TDs before finally getting caught in that triangle armbar.

I think under the right circumstances Paddy could beat Dober, don't get me wrong -- maybe Drew gets caught up in the brawl, lands some good shots and overswings trying to knock him out, Paddy hits one of his sweeps, and jumps on his back. Crazier things have happened. But Dober is a big favorite in that fight, especially coming off a three-fight win streak where he's finished all those guys with strikes and Paddy has eaten big, clean shots in every single win he's had lol. I think the UFC recognizes that.

If they're going for the most bang for the buck, Tony or arguably Hooker make more sense. Those guys are at least in the Top 15 as of the time of this post and seem to be more shot than Drew with less heat in their hands and exploitable defensive grappling. I think Paddy beats Tony more often than not, but even this diminished version of Dan probably manages to edge him out IMO. Or -- if they want Paddy to fight another unranked guy (which Dober currently is) and thus play it safe with a slow progression a la O'Malley -- then Claudio Puelles and Clay Guida aren't far behind and both present extremely winnable match-ups for him. Clay is a gritty vet and former Strikeforce champ coming off a win, while Puelles until recently was on a five-fight win streak and was thought of so highly that they gave him a shot at the #12 guy (for all the good that did him).



Agreed. McKinney is live to clip him early as he always is -- I low-key think he might be one of the most explosive and powerful guys in the division, even more so than Chandler or Gaethje -- but beyond raw power and wrestling I believe Bonfim holds all the cards in regards to cardio, fight IQ, technical striking, composure, etc. I suspect Ismael weathers a fierce early storm and then takes him into deep waters (which, for Terrance, is pretty much anything outside of the first three minutes lmao) before melting him via TKO or Sub in the second half of the bout.

I think I want Dober to watch him light Paddy on fire lol.
Clay would be a good one and he has the cardio to make it ugly.
Guida has no hands though, and the UFC probably isn't looking to get Paddy into a grinder with someone like Clay that can make him look bad....(Maybe not beat him but...).

Dan Hooker would be interesting but Dan can still stand and bang.
Is the UFC willing to possibly have him wrecked by Hooker?...me neither.

I think they wanna put him in with someone that he can smash....but I don't see anyone that matches that description tbh sir.








McKinney's cardio is something I worry about in this next fight too.
Every advantage that Bonfim has could be taken away in one second though.

Pound for pound McKinney probably hits as hard or harder than everyone in his division and the one above.
Can he put that power on Bonfim without Bonfim too much damage or surviving?...I guess we'll see.
 
I think I want Dober to watch him light Paddy on fire lol.
Clay would be a good one and he has the cardio to make it ugly.
Guida has no hands though, and the UFC probably isn't looking to get Paddy into a grinder with someone like Clay that can make him look bad....(Maybe not beat him but...).

Maybe, maybe not. Back in Cage Warriors Paddy got outgrappled and beaten by two grinders in Soren Bak and Nad Narimani, but he's gotten marginally better since then and Clay Guida isn't really in his physical prime anymore. I think Guida would be a live dog in that fight for sure, but it's a winnable fight for Paddy against a guy who's still (remarkably) considered quite relevant in the category of unranked Lightweights.

Dan Hooker would be interesting but Dan can still stand and bang.
Is the UFC willing to possibly have him wrecked by Hooker?...me neither.

Like I said, Dan would/should be the favorite in that fight despite being noticeably slower after the damage he's taken. He's still a better striker than Paddy and has shown decent grappling. But he's the most highly-positioned Lightweight with an actual number next to his name that in some reality, somewhere Paddy stands some chance of beating. I mean compared to someone like Drew Dober I certainly don't see Hooker as a more dangerous match-up to Paddy's hype train, all things considered.

I think they wanna put him in with someone that he can smash....but I don't see anyone that matches that description tbh sir.

Did you see Tony's last fight? <45>

Dude's a shadow of a shell of his former self. As much of an unremarkable hype train that Paddy is, IMO he beats that version of Tony more often than not. Maybe not 100% of the time, but he should be the favorite for sure. He can outgrapple him and land big shots on the feet, too. Way less damage sustained and less wear & tear. And Tony still ostensibly has name value to build off of (unfortunately). Beyond that if you want a super-winnable/easy fight for Paddy, you have to start looking at those guys in the 46-68 range in the OP. Paddy could handle a lot of them quite easily IMO, though I could see more than a few being way bigger challenges stylistically than they "should" be based on rankings/records alone.

McKinney's cardio is something I worry about in this next fight too.
Every advantage that Bonfim has could be taken away in one second though.

Well that's just the nature of any power-puncher, but that's something you accept any time you pick a fight involving them. A lot of the time it doesn't pan out when they put all their eggs in that basket, it's just that those times don't get remembered lol.

I love watching McKinney fight and I think he has insane athletic gifts with regards to his fast-twitch muscle and how it aids his explosive power and grappling, but I sort of got his measure after this last fight. Dober should have been a wake-up call for him. Biggest fight of his career: he rocked Drew bad, nearly finished him, but gassed himself out going for said finish and got finished in turn. Live and learn, right? Learn to manage your energy and be a more disciplined fighter, especially since this is a recurring them for you as a fighter (Woodson loss). But then the UFC gives him a lay-up opponent to smash and in the post-fight interview when directly asked if he plans to reform his gameplan he basically says "No, fuck that. I'm going to do what I've always done. Go in there and try to kill the other guy as fast as possible or die trying". At that point I pretty much gave up on him ever being anything more than a fun fringe Top 15 all-action fighter. Which is fine, but sorta depressing because he's young and has the talent & natural gifts to be so much more with the right discipline.

Pound for pound McKinney probably hits as hard or harder than everyone in his division and the one above.
Can he put that power on Bonfim without Bonfim too much damage or surviving?...I guess we'll see.

Indeed. I'm looking forward to it. It's one of those fights where you hate to see either guy lose, to be honest. They're really dropping both Bonfim brothers into the shark tank with their respective debuts TBH.
 
Maybe, maybe not. Back in Cage Warriors Paddy got outgrappled and beaten by two grinders in Soren Bak and Nad Narimani, but he's gotten marginally better since then and Clay Guida isn't really in his physical prime anymore. I think Guida would be a live dog in that fight for sure, but it's a winnable fight for Paddy against a guy who's still (remarkably) considered quite relevant in the category of unranked Lightweights.



Like I said, Dan would/should be the favorite in that fight despite being noticeably slower after the damage he's taken. He's still a better striker than Paddy and has shown decent grappling. But he's the most highly-positioned Lightweight with an actual number next to his name that in some reality, somewhere Paddy stands some chance of beating. I mean compared to someone like Drew Dober I certainly don't see Hooker as a more dangerous match-up to Paddy's hype train, all things considered.



Did you see Tony's last fight? <45>

Dude's a shadow of a shell of his former self. As much of an unremarkable hype train that Paddy is, IMO he beats that version of Tony more often than not. Maybe not 100% of the time, but he should be the favorite for sure. He can outgrapple him and land big shots on the feet, too. Way less damage sustained and less wear & tear. And Tony still ostensibly has name value to build off of (unfortunately). Beyond that if you want a super-winnable/easy fight for Paddy, you have to start looking at those guys in the 46-68 range in the OP. Paddy could handle a lot of them quite easily IMO, though I could see more than a few being way bigger challenges stylistically than they "should" be based on rankings/records alone.



Well that's just the nature of any power-puncher, but that's something you accept any time you pick a fight involving them. A lot of the time it doesn't pan out when they put all their eggs in that basket, it's just that those times don't get remembered lol.

I love watching McKinney fight and I think he has insane athletic gifts with regards to his fast-twitch muscle and how it aids his explosive power and grappling, but I sort of got his measure after this last fight. Dober should have been a wake-up call for him. Biggest fight of his career: he rocked Drew bad, nearly finished him, but gassed himself out going for said finish and got finished in turn. Live and learn, right? Learn to manage your energy and be a more disciplined fighter, especially since this is a recurring them for you as a fighter (Woodson loss). But then the UFC gives him a lay-up opponent to smash and in the post-fight interview when directly asked if he plans to reform his gameplan he basically says "No, fuck that. I'm going to do what I've always done. Go in there and try to kill the other guy as fast as possible or die trying". At that point I pretty much gave up on him ever being anything more than a fun fringe Top 15 all-action fighter. Which is fine, but sorta depressing because he's young and has the talent & natural gifts to be so much more with the right discipline.



Indeed. I'm looking forward to it. It's one of those fights where you hate to see either guy lose, to be honest. They're really dropping both Bonfim brothers into the shark tank with their respective debuts TBH.

I thought Tony was staying at 170?
Either way I don't want to see him fight again tbh.

Also, I can see what you're saying about Hooker and it makes sense.
The more I look, the more I think Guida is the best matchup really.

I remember McKinney saying that dumb shit, I shook my head and looked at my brother and we laughed.
Like you said though, Bonfim has good IQ, and he's technically sound.
Im looking forward to that one man.
 
Resign Diego for that fight or give him blownup shot Cruz.
 
They need to put him in with a bjj guy with poor striking, he gets hit too much and the chin won’t hold up forever
 
I thought Tony was staying at 170?
Either way I don't want to see him fight again tbh.

Also, I can see what you're saying about Hooker and it makes sense.
The more I look, the more I think Guida is the best matchup really.

I remember McKinney saying that dumb shit, I shook my head and looked at my brother and we laughed.
Like you said though, Bonfim has good IQ, and he's technically sound.
Im looking forward to that one man.

I don't think the UFC or Tony know what Tony is doing next. I wouldn't be surprised to see him return to 155 if offered Paddy, given that his last fight at 170 didn't go so well. He would see it as an opportunity to get back on the saddle and whup the young prospect, thus stealing his thunder and becoming relevant again.

Mind you I have wanted to see him retire for some time now, but he has made it clear that he is too stubborn to do so, believing each loss that he just needs to fix a few minor errors before making a grand comeback. Meanwhile the UFC will 100% milk him for what he's worth.
 
<{1-8}> Bobby Green is #17 and Dober is #22? this ranking looks outdated.
 
The best similarly ranked fighters he matches up decently with are Mark Madsen and Claudio Puelles, but both coming off losses.

Clay Guida is probably the one - similar rank, coming off a win, lot of name value, short-armed grappler that doesn’t KO people.

Good way to keep Paddy busy and hope he can keep developing his stand up defense, but honestly he is likely 99% developed as a fighter.

If you haven’t learned head movement, defensive footwork, layered blockings/parries after a decade of fighting and at age 30 you likely aren’t going to learn that shit now.
 
Let him fight Bobby Green. A household name to add to his resume if he wins...it's a big IF....
 
Don't rankings get updated tomorrow? If so, might invalidate what I'm about to say, but...

Paddy -- technically speaking -- is on a four-fight win streak right now. If he were any other up-and-comer in the same spot, everyone would be fully expecting him to either fight a ranked opponent or at the very least fight one of the guys in the Top 20/Top 25. Someone like Kutateladze, Moises, Dober, Green, Alvarez, Gillespie, Riddell, CDF, Klose, etc. The types of dudes who are only one or two good wins away from getting into the rankings themselves (or back into the rankings in some cases).

The way I see it, the UFC has two paths here.

1.) They can slow their roll and book him against a step down in competition while allowing him to headline or co-headline the upcoming London card against a very winnable opponent. This would be, in my mind, more or less a tacit admission on their part that they believe he lost to Gordon and that his ceiling is not as high as they (and his fans) hoped. You can't be 4-0 and go from fighting Jared Gordon to headlining against, say... Trey Ogden, Natan Levy, etc. At best if they go this route they'll give him someone along the lines of Mike Davis, Ludovit Klein, Clay Guida, Mike Trizano, or Claudio Puelles who -- while challenging -- are largely hit-or-miss names that are ranked lower in the global Lightweight standings and present more winnable fights for Paddy.

2.) The UFC can decide to strike while the iron is hot and use this opportunity to get Paddy into the rankings right now while they and their golden boy have a chance... by having him take the big spot in London against none other than El Cucuy. Tony is #15 at the moment and won't be there for long given recent "trends" in the man's career and in the division. Ferguson is the only remotely favorable match-up for Paddy in the Top 15 and even then I don't consider Pimblett some overwhelming 5-to-1 favorite against Ferguson or anything. But soon Tony will fall out of the rankings and further into obscurity and he'll be replaced in that #15 slot by some killer like Dober or Guram who Paddy has exceedingly little chance of beating.

Not sure which route they'll go.
There is reason in your post, the kind that escapes the dumbass haters. As a Paddy fan, I believe it is time for him to step up to another level, but he has been doing that ever since he entered thew UFC. Stepping down to a lesser fight would be a terrible move on Dana's part, as well as Paddy's. It's better he fights a great fighter and loses than take a step down in comp and win. I believe he knows this. Dana has to pay though because he does draw. His pay may exceed the pay of better fighters, but that's all part of the business. He's great at THAT part, arguably better than he is at fighting (which he's good at), but everybody can get better at fighting through dedication and hard work. That's the part he can improve on, obviously. He has plenty of talent, but the food show has to end, and he might want to fight a better striking coach and/or training partners. His chaotic stand-up style won't work against highly disciplined fighters.
 
I don't think the UFC or Tony know what Tony is doing next. I wouldn't be surprised to see him return to 155 if offered Paddy, given that his last fight at 170 didn't go so well. He would see it as an opportunity to get back on the saddle and whup the young prospect, thus stealing his thunder and becoming relevant again.

Mind you I have wanted to see him retire for some time now, but he has made it clear that he is too stubborn to do so, believing each loss that he just needs to fix a few minor errors before making a grand comeback. Meanwhile the UFC will 100% milk him for what he's worth.


Yeah Tony has broken my heart since the Gaethje fight.
Never seen him beaten like that tbh, and I have been a fan of his, his entire career.

I feel like that was the turning point for him though.

You can see why these guys don't retire though, as they always think they can "fix" what is wrong.

Thanks for the convo, you don't get good conversations here all the time.
 
OK, I think it's settled then...Guida it is. Send out the contracts, Dana.
 
There is reason in your post, the kind that escapes the dumbass haters. As a Paddy fan, I believe it is time for him to step up to another level, but he has been doing that ever since he entered thew UFC. Stepping down to a lesser fight would be a terrible move on Dana's part, as well as Paddy's. It's better he fights a great fighter and loses than take a step down in comp and win. I believe he knows this. Dana has to pay though because he does draw. His pay may exceed the pay of better fighters, but that's all part of the business. He's great at THAT part, arguably better than he is at fighting (which he's good at), but everybody can get better at fighting through dedication and hard work. That's the part he can improve on, obviously. He has plenty of talent, but the food show has to end, and he might want to fight a better striking coach and/or training partners. His chaotic stand-up style won't work against highly disciplined fighters.

Yeah. I am not a Paddy hater or a Paddy fan. Sure, some of the stuff he says mildly annoys me, but other times he seems like an okay sort. I am largely indifferent to him and treat him as I would any other prospect. There are a lot of moving pieces involved here that I didn't really cover, like what is Paddy's contract status right now? He's stated that he wants to be on the "O'Malley plan", i.e. fighting the worst guys for the least amount of money until the UFC makes it worth his while to take a step up in competition. I assume the UFC signed him to a 4-fight deal, so with the W over Gordon I assume they'll resign him and potentially to a more lucrative contract. Will they have him Co-Main or even headline in London in order to capitalize on their new star? And if so, do they hedge their bets by having fight another unranked guy who they judge to be a winnable fight for him in order to get the full value of the showcase?

I agree with your premise entirely that he can't dodge upper-level competition forever. Eventually he's got to take that next step. Even O'Malley eventually got the Munhoz and Yan bouts. But I also acknowledge that there are some business considerations that the promotion and his management might consider to take precedence in this case... but we'll see. As far as his long-term prospects, I don't know. Based solely on what he's shown us thus far, I've said that he seems like he has the potential to be a Top 20 guy. I would need to see him improve before I believed he could really make a run in the rankings proper. I wasn't sure what to make of him when he first came to the UFC; I actually faded him against Luigi and he proved me wrong. He continuously impressed me with small aspects and improvements to his game between fights to the point that I picked him to beat Gordon which is a reversal of my initial assessment when they were originally talking about the two of them fighting one another around the time Paddy made his debut. I didn't expect him to struggle with Jared to that extent, though. He's still young enough to improve further, though, admittedly.

I can't say I'm not interested in seeing where he goes regardless.

Yeah Tony has broken my heart since the Gaethje fight.
Never seen him beaten like that tbh, and I have been a fan of his, his entire career.

I feel like that was the turning point for him though.

You can see why these guys don't retire though, as they always think they can "fix" what is wrong.

Thanks for the convo, you don't get good conversations here all the time.

I was never a massive Tony fan, but I always enjoyed his entertaining style of fighting watching the man scrap. Definitely had respect for what he accomplished inside the division. I felt like everything post-Kevin Lee and the knee injury was marked by a slow, steady albeit noticeable regression from him. Then along came Gaethje and beat whatever was left out of his prime out of him.

In many ways, the Nate fight was even more worrying. Because at least against Chandler, Dariush, Gaethje, and Oliveira he never gave up and was mentally in it the whole time -- it was just that his body was physically incapable of performing the tasks he was asking of it unlike several years ago and his skill didn't match up anymore. Against Nate, it was like he suffered a mental regression as well -- I never thought I'd see the day where Tony accepted being on the back foot for the entirety of the fight, shying away from being hit and tripping over his own feet in a defensive shell to escape the first sign of punishment before shooting a panic takedown into a submission.

It's a broken man in there who isn't doing himself any favors by continuing to take these fights. People have called me out for hating on him by saying these things -- but I only say it because I respect him. I respect him so deeply that I don't want to see him take even more damage fighting needlessly beyond his level of competition when his prospects for long-term quality of life after the sport already look grim. The last thing I want is to watch the next hot prospect -- whether it be Paddy or someone else -- kill Tony in the cage. It's sad for Ferguson, but it also doesn't tell us anything meaningful about the capabilities of that prospect. It's effectively a meaningless bout other than moving said prospect into the rankings. But I digress...

And likewise, thanks for the discussion man. I know we don't see eye-to-eye on everything (I'd be worried if we did!), but it's nice to have solid chats like these.
 
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