Masvidal is not a good matchup for Burns

achoo42 said:
Yes, Burns is probably the better fighter and probably outgrapples him in this fight.

But Masvidal is not the easy fight that people think he is. Burns is slower and less skilled on the feet with a worse chin. If they stand up, I'd favor Masvidal.

Masvidal's takedown defense is decent and his grappling defense is excellent. Burns isn't the chain wrestler that Colby is and it won't be an easy submission for Burns either. Masvidal hasn't been subbed in over a decade.

I still think Burns wins. But he definitely should not be a -500 favorite.
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masvidal is old and past his prime. not even a punchers chance here.
 
achoo42 said:
He shouldn't be the favorite. But the odds should be close, maybe only -150 or so in Alex's favor.

Yes, Izzy's "0-3" but he is also clearly the better fighter, winning virtually every round that he didn't get knocked out in. It is easy to imagine him adjusting from the first fight (less leg kicks) and using more movement or grappling to survive all 5 rounds and win the decision that he was en route to in their first fight. Or he could even hurt Pereira and finish him, which he was close to doing in two of their three fights.

But then again, if we know anything about their fights it's that luck is not on Izzy's side....
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Hahah my man. That post read like everything I've been posting for ages

Izzy is the much better fighter hes literally fighting a giant and beating a giant - but the last 2 fights this giant has had 2 lives (hometown ref and end of round). So he should be the favourote again - but he's such a big favourite the payoff for betting on him is pretty low.

Izzy probably gonna be the hardcore fans mw goat. He's better than Alex in all areas (glory champ lol) and Silva never fought the same level of competition and pissed hot
 
HuskySamoan said:
Masvidal is 38 years old and has been out 13 months. Burns is active and a couple years younger, I think this means a lot more than you might imagine. Gilbert is also the more consistent fighter and he's multifaceted in his approach, I wouldn't be surprised if Burns beat Masvidal over 15 minutes on the feet or by imposing his grappling and of course mixing it up.

It's true though, Masvidal is dangerous standing, Burns isn't young either and Masvidal has never been easy to keep down. I don't think Burns should be -500 but at the same time I think there's good value if he's only -300. Masvidal can definitely score the upset but he's going to need to find a finish to do so.
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The Pinny spread is 375/-503. I would rather bet Burns -375 than Jorge +503 / or Burns -503 > Jorge +375 fwiw. That said, I don't see much value either way on this fight and probably pass... although maybe I'd take vig-free Burns with someone small at this price which is probably -395 or so.
I disagree with a lot of people in this forum that this fight is close.
Yes, Jorge has a puncher's chance and can be dangerous on the feet. But it's not a close fight.
Burns is also dangerous on the feet - and given that Jorge has to be worried about takedowns while Burns doesn't, Burns will probably do fine striking. That same dynamic led to Jorge dropping his hands and Usman KOing him. Burns can definitely KO Masvidal if he lands a strong overhand.
And grappling they are worlds apart. Masvidal is zero offensive threat to Burns and Burns is a big offensive threat to Jorge.
Plus we have the age factor - Masvidal is 38 and on his way down. Burns is not young at 36, but that's still solidly in Burns favor.
 
Burns is a bit chinny sometimes and Mas doesn't have that one shot power in his hands but he can make something happen. I'm not sure if the odds are fair. But yea, mas is older now. Tough.
 
Jesus christ did masvidal get marketed well. Shertards think he gonna beat a guy with a style that always beats jorge masvidal.
 
flektarn said:
Burns is a bit chinny sometimes and Mas doesn't have that one shot power in his hands but he can make something happen. I'm not sure if the odds are fair. But yea, mas is older now. Tough.
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Who has burns been chinny against?
 
Dim1 said:
Why is Masvidal being permitted to fight again by the UFC? He blitz attacked a previous opponent in public and was criminally charged (but not convicted.) Not sure I follow the logic.
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You answered your own question. "Not convicted". Label his actions whatever you like. Clearly they were violent and criminal. However Colby seems to enjoy saying whatever comes to his mind. That's why he has to deal with the repercussions. Many people do not deal with everything rationally. Speak ill words about someone who has a street mentality, and much worse could happen. Some people really just don't give much of a fk.
 
europe1 said:
Burns big problem is that he never sees jabs comming.

Both Usman and Khamzat stung him repeatedly with them. Dropped him even. Getting dropped from jabs is concerning.

Could Masvidal replicate that? Yes. Will he? Dunno.
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Masvidal is only 1 inch taller but has like 3 in reach, that could be really good for his jab.
Facing Usman, Colby and Maia should give him a lot of grappling training.
If he can keep it standing we are in for a treat.
 
Burns is a better matchup against grapplers than strikers and also he manages to get dropped in most of his fights. Masvidal is older and can show up looking old any fight now and it won't be a surprise. I wouldn't bet on this fight because I think it can go either way.
 
Masvidal fought Usman on short notice first time around and had his moments in the fight. Granted, Usman finished him in the rematch. Then he fought Colby. In the Colby fight, i think he was effected from the knockout loss to Usman. He also went into the Colby fight with too much emotion. He also comes into this fight with the opportunity to pip Colby to the title shot if he does it in good fashion. Although i still think Colby gets the shot.
 
All these "Masvidal has better striking" takes will not age well lol.

Burns by ko/tko
 
Yeah I think on the judges scorecards he was able to win 1 round against Colby and usman. Burns isn't the same kind of wrestler as them. I still think burns wins but maybe will put a little $$ on masvidal at these odds
 
If Burns can take him down I expect him to do a lot better than Maia. Maia has a very singular approach, takes the back and looks for RNC. Burns likes to get top position and grapple more instead of just hanging on, so I think he could create more opportunities for a sub or to get top position and drain/control Masvidal. On the feet I feel like Masvidal is being overrated tbh, and Burns a little underrated
 
It depends how strong is Burns wrestling. Masvidal only looked bad against wrestlers, and he still managed to have his moments. Burns chin isnt good so one of those moments is all Mas needs. It's the bet of the night.
 
JoeRowe said:
All these "Masvidal has better striking" takes will not age well lol.

Burns by ko/tko
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It's not a take, it's a fact that Masvidal has better striking than Burns. That doesn't mean Burns won't knock him out.
 
Masvidal is one of the most overrated fighters in the UFC. He has never beaten a top contender. He just has a big mouth and somehow keeps getting fights against top contenders.
 
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