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I don't think he was "derailed", but it did expose/confirm quite a few weaknesses in McGregor, IMO.
Also, it's interesting how after this loss, McGregor fans totally understand context and perspective, but will talk all day long about the 13 seconds it took to defeat Aldo, after he hadn't lost in 10 years.
I actually think you're right, "any given second" is true, in a general sense, but McGregor didn't get caught or anything-- after a strong start where he couldn't finish, things began to go south, he didn't have much of a plan B, Diaz took over, capitalized and finished. What Conor got dragged into was a war, and he clearly wasn't prepared for what happens next, if someone DOES survive his power (after fighting many guys smaller than him for his entire UFC career). This is why it's critical that he actually work his way through a division and acclimate himself properly.
McGregor has demonstrated that he's a thinking fighter, and if he decides to venture to 155, I think he can find success and definitely crack top 10 (depending on the stylistic matchups). But he was very clearly beaten in a more competitive fight than he's used to, and he does have work to do. Realizing this is important to his growth and I'm positive he already understands this, but hopefully his fans do, too.
Yeah, but realize that you posted rationally, most anti-Conors do not share that same perspective. I know the Aldo fight will go different a second time around, I knew that the first fight was an alignment of many factors and not likely to ever happen again in that sequence. Will Conor beat Aldo again? No clue. Hendricks vs Wonderboy, Tate vs Holm, Gus vs Johnson.. we never really know how things will turn out.