Khamzat Will Most Likely Lose ...

[wisdom blows]

Why Kamaru will lose
-He's old. Khamzat is young. He's past prime. Khamzat on the other hand can only improve at this point.
-His knees seemed to be a real problem in the Leon trilogy
-He's capable of getting hit when forced backwards. Khamzat hits a lot harder than the other guys he's been facing.
-He won't have the size advantage he typically enjoys

Why Khamzat will lose
-He's not refined enough in the striking department. When Usman moves forward, he has a nasty jab and one punch power.
-He was unable to effectively grapple the only elite grappler he's faced. Good luck getting and holding Kamaru down.
-His gas tank is unproven, and possibly even suspect. Kamaru's is proven.
-Kamaru has much more experience against top level competition than Khamzat does

Khamzat took Burns down every time he tried, but got spooked by his guard. He won’t have this issue with Usman.

 

[Tweak896]

seeing them box makes me think that..

usman has a great, long jab and a powerful right cross, but his punches outside of that are mostly looping punches. his boxing is stiff and rudimentary. hes got that bodybuilder boxing

khamzat also has everything usman has plus more. switches stances succesfully. weird but dangerous uppercut. great hand speed and power. much more relaxed and fluid compared to usman. his biggest flaw is his tendency to get into sloppy brawl-like exchanges at times, and he could move his head more

I could see that. Thanks for the response.

 

[mkt]

A thread based 100% on mmath.

Why don’t you just shut down your account. If you can’t make a real thread. STOP making threads.

What's even worse it's MMA Math for an aging fighter who didn't look good in his last fight vs. a 29-year old who's taken very little damage in his 12 fights. MMA Math always has its limitations. But comparing common opponents makes more sense when both guys are in their primes (or even when both guys are old and washed). We can't pretend Usman is the same guy who beat Woodley or finished Burns.

 

[Copper Burner]

It wouldn't surprise me to see Khamzat walk across the cage and fold Usman like a lawn chair.

 

[Adamant]

We've seen it time and time and time again where the unstoppable looking guy gets whoop'd and all of a sudden the hype is over. I hope this is not that time for Khamzat. I'd like to see him be champion for a couple of years first.

 

[Brit_Brawler]

"Usman is a 5 round fighter"

You'd be right.. if he had a full training camp. But here he is fighting at the highest weight he's ever fought & least preparation time during his UFC run. We can't expect to see the best Kamaru, and that's not even accounting for his age.

Highest Weight class. Not highest weight. I very much doubt usman is going to attempt to add weight this late before a fight. He will come in at most a couple of pounds heavier or his usual in cage weight without having to cut a load of water and then rehydrate.

 

[usernamee]

What's even worse it's MMA Math for an aging fighter who didn't look good in his last fight vs. a 29-year old who's taken very little damage in his 12 fights. MMA Math always has its limitations. But comparing common opponents makes more sense when both guys are in their primes (or even when both guys are old and washed). We can't pretend Usman is the same guy who beat Woodley or finished Burns.

He didn't look good? He still took the current WW champ to a close and competitive decision.

 

[mkt]

He didn't look good? He still took the current WW champ to a close and competitive decision.

Nope. He beat Edwards in their first fight and was clearly winning the 2nd fight until he got KO'd in the last round. So it's clear Usman isn't as good or dominant as he once was. The question now is if he'll have a gradual decline or a more rapid decline like Woodley had.

 

[usernamee]

Nope. He beat Edwards in their first fight and was clearly winning the 2nd fight until he got KO'd in the last round. So it's clear Usman isn't as good or dominant as he once was. The question now is if he'll have a gradual decline or a more rapid decline like Woodley had.

The way you phrased that post it almost sounds like you are satirical of your own view.

 

[Soggust]

Khamzat took Burns down every time he tried, but got spooked by his guard. He won’t have this issue with Usman.

Why do you think this?

I think Kamaru has clearly better TDD than Burns, if only because Burns is used to inviting people into his guard whereas Kamaru is a traditional wrestler with one of the (if not #1?) best highest TDD % in UFC history.

I think Usman and Burns are arguably the worst matchup you could give Khamzat at 170 and Burns wasn't exactly a blowout. I realize it's not at 170 and that's the whole difficulty of the fight etc, but it's not like Usman is a super small WW.

I'm a Khamzat fan but I'm shocked the odds are so lopsided on this fight. This is a terrible style matchup for him.

 

[Liquidskies]

I'm a bit on the fence here how this will play out, perhaps a SD for Khamzat.

 

[Sensee]

36. Messed up knees. Never fought at 185. Taking a short notice fight against a guy who is a natural Middleweight who has been bulking.

He's a lock. Definitely. Why?

Italicized letters and colorful words!

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

What evidence do YOU have that the young, unschooled, undisciplined Chimaev (who barely beat the same Burns, Usman destroyed) has a snowballs chance in hell of beating Usman?

I've never seen the guy in your avatar knock a UFC fighter out that cleanly and Khamzat did it with one punch.

 

[mkt]

The way you phrased that post it almost sounds like you are satirical of your own view.

No, just demonstrating the inanity of your comment. Usman has clearly lost a step by any objective measure of his 3 fights with Edwards.

 

[dragovic]

By how tired, and wobbly, he was ... after a 3-round fight with (former LW) Burns?

The same Burns who was annihilated by Usman, and only had 50 seconds of control ... before being completely overwhelmed.

What evidence do YOU have that the young, unschooled, undisciplined Chimaev (who barely beat the same Burns, Usman destroyed) has a snowballs chance in hell of beating Usman?

Please cite your references of their other common opponents, thanks estimation point

If you research MMA history you will learn that your MMAth theory won't hold.

 

[don't ask]

Khamzat = a 1.5-round fighter.

• Kamaru = a 5-round fighter.

It's a 3-round fight and I just hope Kamaru can adapt to a 3-round fight, otherwise Khamzat will have it in the bag twice.

 

[usernamee]

No, just demonstrating the inanity of your comment. Usman has clearly lost a step by any objective measure of his 3 fights with Edwards.

Sure, I don't disagree with that. I'm also not in agreement with OPs sentiment. I probably shouldn't responded to you in the first place because my point is a bit of a side track to the bigger conversation. I think my feathers are just ruffled because I keep seeing report Usman as basically over the hill and done when he did in fact just have a close fight with the champ and I react emotionally and have to respond...

 

[legcramp]

Khamzat's biggest win is a life and death battle with a LW Gilbert Burns... and GM3. Let's think about that for a second.

 

[Bradillac]

We've seen it time and time and time again where the unstoppable looking guy gets whoop'd and all of a sudden the hype is over. I hope this is not that time for Khamzat. I'd like to see him be champion for a couple of years first.

It already happened.

 

[jjjjjjjjjjohnny]

hazmat at 185 - very different than 170