Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

I'm making what I believe is my first ever bet at Retama Park. I don't even know where that track is. Took the #4 horse to win in race 7 on the turf.

 

[Sharkey]

...And that may be the last one I make there.

 

[Sharkey]

After over two years and nearly 5000 posts this terrible thread needs to die already.

 

[Sharkey]

...And that may be the last one I make there.

I lied. One more. Playing the good outside speed horse in race 9 with the #8 Shark.

 

[Sharkey]

I lied. One more. Playing the good outside speed horse in race 9 with the #8 Shark.

A photo. Super close, but of course a horse named Shark is going to lose it.

 

[Sharkey]

Oh wow, I got it. Shocking.

 

[Sharkey]

Some possible outside speed types for me tomorrow, and then one other play with what is probably my favourite horse in racing right now. This girl also had a lot to do with this outside speed concept of mine earlier this year when running at Mahoning Valley. So if I have a good day tomorrow she gets some thanks even if she doesn't win her race.

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Race 1 at Finger Lakes - #6 Marie's Warrior 6/1 (22.7% = 7/2 fair odds) (NPT)

Race 2 at Finger Lakes - #6 Dublin Express 5/1 (24.1% = 7/2 fair odds)

Race 6 at Finger Lakes - #5 Just Watch Me 5/1 (21.2% = 4/1 fair odds)

Race 8 at Thistledown - #8 Tensas Tough 8/1 (15.7% = 5/1 fair odds)

Race 2 at Penn National - #9 Edfitzatmahle'sbar 5/1 (20.9% = 4/1 fair odds)

Race 7 at Presque Isle - Humorous Chant 9/2 (18.8% = 9/2 fair odds)

Race 8 at Presque Isle - #9 Mini's Shoes 8/1 (14.6% = 6/1 fair odds)

Race 9 at Mountaineer - #7 Smooth Arrival 5/1 (17.8% = 5/1 fair odds)

Race 4 at Assiniboia Downs - #6 Mi Hossenda 5/1 (17.7% = 5/1 fair odds) (NPT)

Race 7 at Canterbury - #6 Johnny the Jet 9/2 (26.2% = 3/1 fair odds)

Race 7 at Albuquerque - #8 Mac McLovin 8/1 (29.4% = 5/2 fair odds)

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I'll play each of these if I get their fair odds or better come post time, which will change in some cases I'm sure depending on the scratches. Except Humorous Chant's race. I'm playing her regardless, even if it's a measely $2 win bet on her at 1/9. Her races are as simple to handicap as any horse. She's either going to win by daylight. Or she's going to get ran down by an off the pace type or two late. Any horse trying to stay even remotely close to her early in the raced is screwed, though. She'll simply run them off their feet. I'll take her over a closing type or two in the exacta. Then reverse it by playing her underneath a closer or two. I've seen it happen all the time in her races and it always plays out the same one way or the other.

 

[Sharkey]

Shit, I've been so busy punching numbers into a calculator the last few days I forgot that the Travers post position draw was this evening. This race is up to our resident trifecta crushing grand master @t6p, though. He knows this year's 3 year-old crop inside and out;

 

[t6p]

After over two years and nearly 5000 posts this terrible thread needs to die already.

Never!

 

[t6p]

Shit, I've been so busy punching numbers into a calculator the last few days I forgot that the Travers post position draw was this evening. This race is up to our resident trifecta crushing grand master @t6p, though. He knows this year's 3 year-old crop inside and out;

Haha, too funny Shark. I'm couldn't be more unprepared but I'll definitely be betting the race in some fashion.

 

[Sharkey]

Race 1 at Finger Lakes - #6 Marie's Warrior 6/1 (22.7% = 7/2 fair odds) (NPT)

5/2 is fair value for me on this one with the two scratches, and I'm in with it being 7/2 as they enter the gates.

 

[Sharkey]

Thought I was cashing that one for 90% of the race and then it just stops in the stretch.

 

[Sharkey]

At least Sand City shit the bed again, and this time at 2/5. If Humorous Chant is my favourite horse in racing, Sandy City is in contention for my least favourite from the claiming ranks at least.

 

[Sharkey]

Passing on this next one with it being bet down to 2/1 as they head to the gates.

 

[Sharkey]

Passing on this next one with it being bet down to 2/1 as they head to the gates.

Then leaves the gate at 7/2 and wins by daylight. I mean, of course he did because this game hates me.

 

[Sharkey]

Late Early Third shows improvement in 129 of 178 (72.4%) races I've looked at so far for an average improvement of 5.4 points on the figures. There were 26 of them who improved by 20+ points and 12 improved by 30+. There was only two regressions of more than 10 points, with the largest being 12.

Early Late Third was mediocre in comparison. 69 of 157 (43.9%) with an average regression of 1.6 points.

Not that any of you guys know what that means yet, but you know that I do like my pace pattern angles and using them to predict future improvement/regression with these horses.

I've also been researching double regression (a positive for 42 of 68), and double improvement ( a huge negative...so far 54 of 68 regressed 3rd time out) with pace figures, but the sample size isn't as large as the other ones so far. Plus, a lot of those who improved off a double regression couldn't help but improve with their last race being so bad.

 

[Sharkey]

That double regression horse improved so much that he just won the 4th at Finger Lakes by open lengths at 17/1. Had some other things going for it as well being the only horse to have won above 5k recently. Highest speed rating at today's distance. 4-2-0 in 9 starts at this track. Etc., etc.

 

[Sharkey]

Race 6 at Finger Lakes - #5 Just Watch Me 5/1 (21.2% = 4/1 fair odds)

Looks like I'm going to get a great price on this one. Currently 11/1 with 10 mins to post, and the will pays in multis say it will go off as either the longest or 2nd longest shot in the race. Has a good chance to be controlling speed on a track that has been favouring that so far today.

The only question this race if looking at pace patterns is which one regresses less than the others.

 

[Sharkey]

Race 6 at Finger Lakes - #5 Just Watch Me 5/1 (21.2% = 4/1 fair odds)

Looks like I'm going to get a great price on this one. Currently 11/1 with 10 mins to post, and the will pays in multis say it will go off as either the longest or 2nd longest shot in the race. Has a good chance to be controlling speed on a track that has been favouring that so far today.

The only question this race if looking at pace patterns is which one regresses less than the others.

I have the fair odds on this one at 3/1 with the scratch of the #3.

 

[Sharkey]

Shit. Had it all the way until right near the line. 2nd by less than a length at 8/1.