Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

The track handicapper picked the #8 horse too, and the odds immediately plummet down to 2/1. Bastard.

 

[Sharkey]

Shitty. The #8 finished 3rd by just over a length behind the winner.

 

[Sharkey]

Happy capping @t6p!

Wet track expected once again.

 

[t6p]

Happy capping @t6p!

Wet track expected once again.

Yikes. I guess the question this time is who finishes third?

 

[Sharkey]

Yikes. I guess the question this time is who finishes third?

Probably, although Good Magic is in this to win it for sure (others might be content with running 2nd), so there is that chance he could get weary legs attacking Justify on the far turn and thus open the race up for a price in 2nd.

 

[Sharkey]

I don't know what his sheet looks like, but one of these runners in the Preakness that a lot of people are going to be playing underneath looks to have an ugly 0-2-X pattern based on his Beyers and Brisnet figures. And coming in on only two weeks rest is going to make it that much harder to avoid an X race.

 

[Monster Meat]

The odds are terrible but is anyone beating justify? We have to hope one of these long shots finishes second

 

[Sharkey]

The odds are terrible but is anyone beating justify? We have to hope one of these long shots finishes second

I wouldn't be able to find a good reason to bet against him, Meat, beyond hoping he has a troubled start or something like that. Nor do I want to bet on him at 2/5 or thereabouts either. I'll leave it up to @t6p on how to play it, but if forced to play this race I'd probably key Justify over a couple of long priced horses in the exacta, and then maybe a 1x3x3 trifecta using Good Magic. Tough to see making much this race otherwise.

 

[Sharkey]

Speaking of keys...

Race 6 at Evangeline Downs later on today;

#11 Whence 4/1 - 377.0
#7 Copper Cajun 8/1 - 337.6
#2 Rare 15/1 - 326.2
#10 Ben's Magic Stone 5/1 - 315.7
#4 Ty's Bandit 5/1 - 314.4

#11 to win ($17) at 2/1 or better, and then keying that one over the #2, #4, #7, #10 in exactas ($5 each), trifectas ($2 each), and supers ($1 each)

 

[ImNotSurpisedDonks!]

I don't think you could give Justify an easier race than this. The expected conditions, the field and the distance are all perfect for him, and Baffert's Quarter horse training and experience better suits him to getting ready for these races that are close together than any other trainer out there. Ther is a reason that Bobby B is undefeated with his Derby winners in the Preakness, and has done so with horses that are a fraction of Justy.

I think what is being lost on a lot of people is just how damn good this colt is. He has faced the highest grade crop in possibly decades, beat great horses like Bolt, Audible, Mendy, Good Magic and has not really ever been tried or pushed in a race. It is almost like this colt is cut of that freak cloth where he understands what winning means and refuses to not be at the front. The scariest part is he just started racing in February and is whupping these mor experienced world class colts by just talent alone - a true prodigy.

He is almost like a Khabib type athlete, in that when he just effortlessly beating his comp and not mauling them, the fans act like he is losing as they are so accustomed to such overwhelming levels of domination. He also does not have a Silky Sullivan /Zenyatta or Winx type style where he will come from behind and instead opts to just murk his opponents from the starting gate. Good Magic is a phenomenal horse, gave it everything he had, he also had a clean trip, but Big Red just walked over him and Smith said Justy could have went longer and faster if asked- scary stuff, IMO.

In reality, the odds should be lower than 1-2, but I think his heel bruise and few limped steps made a lot of cappers suspect something was up and want to play bets that did it include him. This is essentially a match race between him and Good Mag, and to me, 1-2 is very generous. I have the feeling this horse could run times and beat this field 100 out of 100 times. As Baffert said, "he's just cut from a different cloth", and Baffert would certainly be qualified more than any human being to know.

 

[ImNotSurpisedDonks!]

The odds are terrible but is anyone beating justify? We have to hope one of these long shots finishes second

Well, that is one way of looking at it. The other way of looking at it is that you basically get a free 50 cents on your dollar by betting on Justify, who is all but a lock here. This horse is running a shorter race, against a much weaker field and only has really one horse that could even challenge him past a half mile.

When you consider you have 1-2 odds on a Justify Good Magic match race, it is actually a steal. Like Sharkey's AV says "who finishes second" and if Magic doesn't burn out chasing Justy, then the real question is who finishes third?

 

[Sharkey]

There's a huge underlayed horse here in race 2 at Evangeline who is currently sitting at a ridiculous 1/9. That one probably is the most likely winner, but I'm taking the #5 horse who I have ranked 2nd (just 8 points behind the big favourite) and is 12/1 currently with a couple minutes to post.

 

[Sharkey]

There's a huge underlayed horse here in race 2 at Evangeline who is currently sitting at a ridiculous 1/9. That one probably is the most likely winner, but I'm taking the #5 horse who I have ranked 2nd (just 8 points behind the big favourite) and is 12/1 currently with a couple minutes to post.

That's a winner, winner for the good guys at 5/1.

 

[Monster Meat]

Well, that is one way of looking at it. The other way of looking at it is that you basically get a free 50 cents on your dollar by betting on Justify, who is all but a lock here. This horse is running a shorter race, against a much weaker field and only has really one horse that could even challenge him past a half mile.

When you consider you have 1-2 odds on a Justify Good Magic match race, it is actually a steal. Like Sharkey's AV says "who finishes second" and if Magic doesn't burn out chasing Justy, then the real question is who finishes third?

Yea I agree I’ll be doing a few difff exactas and tris with justify and hopefully we can get a longer shot finishing second and third. I do like good magic a good amount also. I think the 8 Bravazo is a good horse Especially at 20-1

 

[ImNotSurpisedDonks!]

Yea I agree I’ll be doing a few difff exactas and tris with justify and hopefully we can get a longer shot finishing second and third. I do like good magic a good amount also. I think the 8 Bravazo is a good horse Especially at 20-1

Bravazo is certainly very under rated, and, Lukas is awesome at prepping for the Preakness owing to his foundation in Quarter horse racing. Bravazo beat a bunch of horses in the Derby too that no one gave him at shot at doing and when you consider Good Mag has the potential to throw in a clunker here and there, it could get interesting. Quip could be a dangerous player too.

I'm actually considering putting down a huge chunk of change on Justy, as it just seems like free money to me. Where in the world can you deposit 10,000 in an ATM and then withdraw 15.000? I have a feeling Justy may even go to 1-3 as face time nears. I did not even feel that Pharoah was this much of a lock in the Preakness.

 

[Sharkey]

Bravazo is certainly very under rated, and, Lukas is awesome at prepping for the Preakness owing to his foundation in Quarter horse racing. Bravazo beat a bunch of horses in the Derby too that no one gave him at shot at doing and when you consider Good Mag has the potential to throw in a clunker here and there, it could get interesting. Quip could be a dangerous player too.

I'm actually considering putting down a huge chunk of change on Justy, as it just seems like free money to me. Where in the world can you deposit 10,000 in an ATM and then withdraw 15.000? I have a feeling Justy may even go to 1-3 as face time nears. I did not even feel that Pharoah was this much of a lock in the Preakness.

If you're that certain of a Justify win why not try to maximize your return by keying him on top in exotics instead of accepting 1/2, 2/5, or maybe even 1/5? All you need is an opinion (for or against) on 2 or 3 other horses in the race, and your potential return goes from 20%-40% to 200%-400%.

 

[ImNotSurpisedDonks!]

If you're that certain of a Justify win why not try to maximize your return by keying him on top in exotics instead of accepting 1/2, 2/5, or maybe even 1/5? All you need is an opinion (for or against) on 2 or 3 other horses in the race, and your potential return goes from 20%-40% to 200%-400%.

I may do that too but no one else in this race seems to be a lock more than him. Good Magic should run second but he can be inconsistent. If I just had one tri bet tho,I would go Justy, Gm and Bravazo. I also would not be surprised to see Lone Sailor do decently.

One negative thing about Justify tho is that he has a powerful hard footed stride and I don't see him having a long career. Horses like that generally just 'lose it' over night and that is actually my theory on what happened to Arrogate too, who also had a super hard hitting stride - akin to the difference between an elusive running back and one that plays smash mouth football and takes damage. The amount of wear and tear they put on their bodies is much greater than smaller and athletic type movers. Thoroughbreds would never occur in nature, would be rooted out over night, as they have these massive bodies and tiny little tea cup feet and are generally plagued by laminitis and foot problems more than any other breed, and when you got a massive horse like Justify that has a hard stride, it is really exacerbated. It is also interesting that Coolmore failed the physical exam in Justy when they were checking him out - I wonder what it was and if it will manifest at all?

The only way he loses is if he is not sound. Knowing with my luck, I put the house on him and he pulls a Barbaro.

 

[Sharkey]

I may do that too but no one else in this race seems to be a lock her than him. Good Magic should run second but he can be inconsistent. If I just had one tri bet tho,
I would go Justy, Gm and Bravazo. I also would not be surprised to see Lone Sailor do decently.

One negative thing about Justify tho is that he has a powerful hard footed stride and I don't see him having a long career. Horses like that generally just 'lose it' over night and that is actually my theory on what happened to Arrogate too, who also had a super hard hitting stride - akin to the difference between an elusive running back and one that plays smash mouth football and takes damage. The amount of wear and tear they put on their bodies is much greater than smaller and athletic type movers. Thoroughbreds would never occur in nature, would be rooted out over night, as they have these massive bodies and tiny little tea cup feet and are generally plagued by laminitis and foot problems more than any other breed, and when you got a massive horse like Justify that has a hard stride, it is really exacerbated. It is also interesting that Coolmore failed the physical exam in Justy when they were checking him out - I wonder what it was and if it will manifest at all?

The only way he loses is if he is not sound. Knowing with my luck, I put the house on him and he pulls a Barbaro.

Well, you should do that then. If you're opinion is that Good Magic should finish 2nd, but you also think both Bravazo and Lone Sailor can run well too then you can turn a 1/2 or even a 1/5 horse like Justify into an even money horse at the least.

e.g. Justify over Good Magic exacta for $10, and then Justify over Bravazo, Lone Sailor for $5 each. Justify over Good Magic probably pays 3/1 or thereabouts, where the other two combinations may pay in the 15/1 range. Your $20 total investment could get you a $40 return at minimum, or even a $80 return. That's much better than risking $20 for a $25 return.

Justify doesn't have a long career ahead of him regardless of what happens since he's already worth way into the eight figures when it comes to his post racing career in the breeding shed. But you're right. Those horses with big, powerful bodies like Justify are more susceptible to having things go wrong than the smaller athletic types. And when something goes wrong on a horse built like that then, more often that not, everything goes wrong when it comes to their ability to run. A smaller horse with a quicker action can compensate better than a bigger horse just because their distribution of their running power is more spread out more over their bodies thus they're better equipped to hide a minor issue.

There's plenty of ways Justify could lose this race beyond just him being sound or not, bud. Especially on a sloppy track, which is what is expected. He could break slow out of the gate and be forced to be used early to get position thus limiting his late energy. He could slip coming out of the gate much like Unique Bella did a couple of months ago at Oaklawn when she was bet down to 1/20 odds and thought of as a "sure thing". He could get banged around hard at the start or squeezed in between two horses. He could get caught up in a pace meltdown situation where he gets pinned on the rail by a horse to his outside. He may get pushed out way wide on the 1st turn by a jockey on a horse to his inside and not be able to recover. He may wake up with a tummy ache or some kind of illness the morning of the race that nobody is able to catch. He may have something piss him off just before the race that causes him to run off during the race. He may wake up and simply not feel like giving his best that day. Etc., etc. There's plenty of ways to lose a race in this game. Are any of those likely to happen? Well, probably not and he is more than likely to win the race than he is not. But there's no such thing as a "lock" in this sport, my man. It's not a linear sport in the least.

 

[Sharkey]

Numbers for the G3 Pimlico Special taking place in the slop about an hour from now (race 9 at Pimlico);

==========

G3 Pimlico Special (Race 9 at Pimlico);

#8 Something Awesome 5/1 - 514.9
#2 One Liner 7/2 - 500.9
#7 Afleet Willy 10/1 - 498.4
#9 Untrapped 10/1 - 497.8
#5 Hedge Fund 7/2 - 473.6
#4 Discreet Lover 20/1 - 455.7
#3 Rated R Superstar 8/1 - 449.1
#1 Irish War Cry 3/1 - 437.7

==========

How can I not bet a race that involves the fragile minded money burner that is Irish War Cry? Especially when he draws the rail over a sloppy track and figures to get muck kicked all over him unless he guns to the lead. Not that he's the worst horse in this race mind you despite what the numbers say. He's a contender if he shows up with his best race. But he is the worst bet in the race at the odds he figures to go off at. He's winless in his last 6 races and has only hit the board in 2 of them despite going off at odds of 5/2 or lower in 4 of them, and no higher than 6/1. Today is his day, though, right? Haha. Well, maybe it is.

#8 Something Awesome to win for me at anything around 3/1 or better, and then keying him over the #2, #7, and #9 in exactas ($5 each) and trifectas ($2 each). Thought about boxing the top four on the numbers in the trifecta just because the advantage isn't that big, but I'm going to narrow it down since Something Awesome came through for me in a big way his last race when he won the Charles Town Classic at 9/1. He's also as consistent as they come having ran Brisnet figures between 97 and 101 in each of his last 6 races, with 5 wins and a 3rd (beaten less than a length) in that span. He's in tremendous form right now. He's also as adaptable with his running style as anybody in this field as well (moreso really) He's won while sitting up close/on the lead through fast than average fractions as he did in his start two back. And he's won while having to overcome a soft early pace by the front runners while sitting off the pace as he did in his last race. He also runs just fine over an off track having won his only two races over a sloppy track in the last 6 months despite having to go way wide around the turn in each of them. Oh, and he's Canadian, so you know he's going to show class out there and not poop all over the track unlike the vulgar American horses. At 5/1 on the morning line what's not to like?

 

[t6p]

@Sharkey

Here are my highly non-technical plays, which absolutely no one should consider tailing, that I'm thinking about going with for the Preakness.

Justify / Good Magic, Diamond King, Lone Sailor
Justify / Good Magic, Diamond King, Lone Sailor / Good Magic, Diamond King, Lone Sailor