Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

t6p said:
Ugh, brutal Shark. That would have been a nice hit.
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Yeah, it hurt, T. It's still bugging me actually. The exacta would have paid about 55/1 and then the place would have paid okay too if Patch doesn't nip both at the line.
 
Race 8 at Charles Town;

#8 John Root 5/2 - 334.8
#1 Clubin Til Midnite 5/1 - 297.5
#4 Dark Helmet 8/1 - 280.8
#3 Coach Casey 9/2 - 275.1

I'll be keying the #8 over the #1 and #4 in exactas, and then keying the #8 over the #1, #4, and #3 in tris and supers since none of the other horses in the race are really all that close on my numbers (5th ranked horse scores at 251.7). I'll also play the #8 to win at anything close to it's morning line as well, which is what he's at right now with 10 minutes to post.
 
#8 wins at 2/1, with the #3 finishing 2nd and the #4 in 3rd, so I get a 40/1 trifecta as well.
 
t6p said:
Yes Shark! Awesome.
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Cheers T.

I learned my lesson from a day or two ago when I should have keyed that horse on top after having such a big edge on the numbers. This time I played it right. For once. Haha.
 
Looking to play a couple of races at Hastings tomorrow;

==========

Race 4;

1- 340.7
2- 354.5 Spring in Alberta 12/1 *
3- 360.7 Handsome Chef 12/1 **
4- 326.5
5- 360.7 Always Sunny 4/1 **
6- 349.7
7- 404.0 Hansen's Victory 2/1 **** (key horse)

==========

Race 5;

1- 402.4 Coulterberry 4/1 **
2- 400.7 Hold the Giant 3/1 **
3- 375.4
4- 427.7 Twistgrips 9/2 **** (potential key if #5 scratches)
5- 432.2 All Under Control 7/2 ***** (potential key if #4 scratches)
6- 343.5
7- 369.7
8- 394.8 Dashing Don 6/1 *

==========
 
Looks like a good opportunity to try for the pick 4 tomorrow at Hastings too with races 4 through 7 since race 6 looks like it's between two horses;

Race 4 - #7
Race 5 - #4, #5
Race 6 - #1, #2
Race 7 - ???

I can't do numbers for race 6 since it's a maiden race, but the #1 and #2 horses are the only two to have had a recent race. The rest of the field is made up of either first time starters or horses coming in off a lengthy layoff (4 of them at 200+ days). The #1 and #2 are also the top two when it comes to prime power, back speed, and class. Neither are the favourite either.

Race 7 is tough to figure out (also a maiden race), but I could just go "All" in that race since it's only a field of 7 and those other races are narrow for me. That's only 28 combos if I go that way, so if I play the pick 4 for a buck it's only $28. Hmm, maybe.
 
That sucks when you find a good spot play and land on a 10/1 shot on top (#6 Forest Mist in race 6 at Lone Star) when capping a race the night before, and then you find out the next day that the big play against 8/5 favourite (ranked it 4th) has scratched out of the race. Not likely to get anything close to 10/1 on that #6 horse now. I'll see what odds I can get when the times comes, but I'm probably going to need 5/1 or it's a pass for me.
 
Sharkey said:
Looking to play a couple of races at Hastings tomorrow;

==========

Race 4;

1- 340.7
2- 354.5 Spring in Alberta 12/1 *
3- 360.7 Handsome Chef 12/1 **
4- 326.5
5- 360.7 Always Sunny 4/1 **
6- 349.7
7- 404.0 Hansen's Victory 2/1 **** (key horse)

==========

Race 5;

1- 402.4 Coulterberry 4/1 **
2- 400.7 Hold the Giant 3/1 **
3- 375.4
4- 427.7 Twistgrips 9/2 **** (potential key if #5 scratches)
5- 432.2 All Under Control 7/2 ***** (potential key if #4 scratches)
6- 343.5
7- 369.7
8- 394.8 Dashing Don 6/1 *

==========
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I'm gonna play these races from Hastings like this today I do believe;


Race 4 - #7 Hansen's Victory to win for $15 at something close to it's 2/1 morning line odds, and then keying it over the #2, #3, and #5 in exactas ($5 each) and trifectas ($2 each)

Race 5 - #4 Twistgrips to win and place for $8/$12 since, on paper, he has the better style of my top two to fit this race on a track that has had good outside flow to it the last couple of weeks

Pick 4 (races 4 through 7) - #7 / #4, #5 / #1, #2 / #4, #5 for just $1 each ($8 total)


I'll play that #6 horse in race 6 at Lone Star as well if I get the right odds at post time.
 
So much for being worried about the price on Hansen's Victory. Currently 8/1 on a horse with a 40+ point advantage on my numbers with just under 10 minutes to post.

Passing on that Lone Star race with the #6 being 7/2 with a minute to post.
 
Yep, that's all mine.

Hansen's Victory by daylight at just over 2/1 in the end. #2 finished 2nd, #5 finished 3rd, and the #3 finished 4th. Got the winner, exacta, trifecta, and would have had the super as well if I played it.
 
Sharkey said:
Race 5 - #4 Twistgrips to win and place for $8/$12 since, on paper, he has the better style of my top two to fit this race on a track that has had good outside flow to it the last couple of weeks
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I may end up passing on this horse unless it's price improves from it's current 2/1 by quite a bit.
 
I bit.

$10 to win on the #4 Twistgrips in race 5 as it's sitting at 4/1 right now with a couple minutes to post.
 
Meh. Not close. My small pick 4 ticket is dead too.
 
t6p said:
Shark you're on fire!
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The highs and lows of this game, hey? I suffer a tough beat when Patch just gets up to win on Saturday. Ticked me off to the point where I didn't even bother betting the Peter Pan. Took a break, went to the local park to watch a ball game, and then came back and hit a tri to end the day. Then hit another tri to start the next day off right. Weird game. No wonder I don't have any hair left.

Sorry to see your results from that UFC card, bud. That's a tough one. But you're going to absolutely crush the next card. No doubt about it.
 
Sharkey said:
The highs and lows of this game, hey? I suffer a tough beat when Patch just gets up to win on Saturday. Ticked me off to the point where I didn't even bother betting the Peter Pan. Took a break, went to the local park to watch a ball game, and then came back and hit a tri to end the day. Then hit another tri to start the next day off right. Weird game. No wonder I don't have any hair left.

Sorry to see your results from that UFC card, bud. That's a tough one. But you're going to absolutely crush the next card. No doubt about it.
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Crazy. That’s the beauty of it too though. A couple hits like that can quickly make up for a lot of losses.

Thanks Shark. I was up about 25u for the five cards prior to that one so I’m not too worried about it. I’m expecting to occasionally have results like that with how I’ve adjusted my betting style this year. I hope you’re right about this week’s card. Although I may be keeping it small since I’m not sure how much time I’ll have for watching tape.
 
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