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Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

Sharkey said:
Cashed 2 wins and 3 places in the 7 races we bet today yet the day as a whole sucked overall due to our horses getting bet down from the 4/1-5/1 range they were on the morning line and then that missed opportunity in race 5.
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It was actually 5 place bets that we cashed, but you guys know what I mean.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
That is correct. I love me some all caps. Especially when I'm talking about the Sharkey formula.
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Just wait til tomorrow when we're crushing exactas left and right. You're going to have to supersize it then.
 
And this formula belongs to both of us, Blunt. @t6p too if he ever wants to use it for himself. Some other guys who are in and out of this thread at times as well. As long as it stays here then I'm happy.
 
Sharkey said:
And this formula belongs to both of us, Blunt. @t6p too if he ever wants to use it for himself. Some other guys who are in and out of this thread at times as well. As long as it stays here then I'm happy.
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Well I didn't do much other than start coming up with basic numbers to evaluate where the horses stood, something that you taught me in the first place. You've basically made this thing from scratch, so it's definitely your formula.

It's up to you at the end of the day, maybe I'm being a cynical asshole, but I really believe this thing is gonna take off and if enough ppl get a hold of it it's gonna leak to other places, other than here eventually, which might make the ppl who use the formula go from just a handful to who even knows how many more.

Like I said, tho, it's up to you since it's your baby, maybe I'm just being a dick here. Honestly I'm just happy you were kind enough to share it with me. I already thought @t6p knew about it, I agree he should know it for sure, no matter what. T's been with us since the beginning.

I believe in the formula 100% and I think it's gonna be something I use for the rest of my life to cap races, so maybe I'm just being selfish not wanting others to be doing the same other than us three and maybe a couple other, haha. Like I said I'm probably being a dick here, tho.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
Well I didn't do much other than start coming up with basic numbers to evaluate where the horses stood, something that you taught me in the first place. You've basically made this thing from scratch, so it's definitely your formula.

It's up to you at the end of the day, maybe I'm being a cynical asshole, but I really believe this thing is gonna take off and if enough ppl get a hold of it it's gonna leak to other places, other than here eventually, which might make the ppl who use the formula go from just a handful to who even knows how many more.

Like I said, tho, it's up to you since it's your baby, maybe I'm just being a dick here. Honestly I'm just happy you were kind enough to share it with me. I already thought @t6p knew about it, I agree he should know it for sure, no matter what. T's been with us since the beginning.

I believe in the formula 100% and I think it's gonna be something I use for the rest of my life to cap races, so maybe I'm just being selfish not wanting others to be doing the same other than us three and maybe a couple other, haha. Like I said I'm probably being a dick here, tho.
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If you're a dick then I'm a dick too since I don't want it going anywhere. I'd like it to just be for us here. That's one of the big things in horse racing. You have to look at races differently than others do. Especially with non-stakes races since the people who cap those races do so by doing their homework. Their methods, which everybody looks at, are going to find the same horses we do and we saw that today, and then a few days ago. But this method will also find some great longshots as well that the sharp cappers out there aren't going to find with their conventional methods of capping.
 
Sharkey said:
If you're a dick then I'm a dick too since I don't want it going anywhere. I'd like it to just be for us here. That's one of the big things in horse racing. You have to look at races differently than others do. Especially with non-stakes races since the people who cap those races do so by doing their homework. Their methods, which everybody looks at, are going to find the same horses we do and we saw that today, and then a few days ago. But this method will also find some great longshots as well that the sharp cappers out there aren't going to find with their conventional methods of capping.
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Yeah I don't think we should let it out, you can trust me I won't share this stuff with anyone. My brother and I are pretty close in age, so we share a lot of the same interests, so he bets sports too, not as much as I do but he's a huge boxing fan like me, and knows just as much as me about it, maybe even more, would never tell him that lol. He's a winning bettor, good capper, etc. Not a high roller or anything, but he likes to gamble just not nearly as much as I do.

Anyway I was doing some number crunching the other day and tried to explain a bit of what I was doing. He looked at the work and the pp's and just said something to the effect of "Holy shit that's the most math I've ever seen you do and you're doing it willingly? Are you okay? No I don't want to do all that shit." Suffice it to say the only person I'd ever tell about this has no interest in doing it at all, lol, so other than that the formula is up to you on who to share it with, I'm not sharing, like that little kid with the cool new toy that nobody else has and won't let them play with it, lulz.
 
minowasmullet said:
Is it time to bet the farm on Gun Runner to win the Pegasus @Sharkey
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I don't know about that, MM. He's going to take some beating for sure, but he's not unbeatable. Especially if he draws one of the outer most posts in the race since it's such a short run to the 1st turn for 9F races at Gulfstream. He obviously is the best horse in the race, though, so all things being equal he is by far the most likely winner. But he'll also be about 3/5.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
Yeah I don't think we should let it out, you can trust me I won't share this stuff with anyone. My brother and I are pretty close in age, so we share a lot of the same interests, so he bets sports too, not as much as I do but he's a huge boxing fan like me, and knows just as much as me about it, maybe even more, would never tell him that lol. He's a winning bettor, good capper, etc. Not a high roller or anything, but he likes to gamble just not nearly as much as I do.

Anyway I was doing some number crunching the other day and tried to explain a bit of what I was doing. He looked at the work and the pp's and just said something to the effect of "Holy shit that's the most math I've ever seen you do and you're doing it willingly? Are you okay? No I don't want to do all that shit." Suffice it to say the only person I'd ever tell about this has no interest in doing it at all, lol, so other than that the formula is up to you on who to share it with, I'm not sharing, like that little kid with the cool new toy that nobody else has and won't let them play with it, lulz.
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Haha. You're brother sounds like a good dude when you bring him up. I like how you talk about how excited he gets when he's watching races with you the best.
 
For the Pegasus it might be best to try to figure out who's going to run 2nd to Gun Runner. No Collected for me, though, as much as I've liked that horse in the past. He already took his very best shot against Gun Runner, and from a herd dynamic standpoint, that may have been broken a bit in that race since he was all out. Collected's last race was pretty pitiful really, although the jock he had that race deserves a lot of the blame.
 
Sharkey said:
I don't know about that, MM. He's going to take some beating for sure, but he's not unbeatable. Especially if he draws one of the outer most posts in the race since it's such a short run to the 1st turn for 9F races at Gulfstream. He obviously is the best horse in the race, though, so all things being equal he is by far the most likely winner. But he'll also be about 3/5.
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Yeah right in Oz he is 4/5 if my conversion is correct (unbackable anyway) they were saying that slots werent getting filled in the race due to his reputation!
 
minowasmullet said:
Yeah right in Oz he is 4/5 if my conversion is correct (unbackable anyway) they were saying that slots werent getting filled in the race due to his reputation!
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I think there should be a pretty good sized field, MM. There's still 12 probables listed for the race and the draw is tomorrow. May get a couple that back out at the last minute, but he should have some competition in the race. I'd have to try to beat him if he's odds-on like that, though. Or key him on top in exactas or tris. West Coast may end up as his biggest threat, although there's a chance that one goes off at 2nd choice, so probably not the best way to look for value. Sharp Azteca good be a danger too since that's a really fast horse.
 
Sharkey said:
Haha. You're brother sounds like a good dude when you bring him up. I like how you talk about how excited he gets when he's watching races with you the best.
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Yeah he's good ppl, he's an Irish twin so we've always been close, we're always hanging out and busting each others balls watching fights and games, etc. reason why I bring him up so much. still roommates to this day, 10 years plus our whole life before that, haha.

He's been real sick these last few years, tho, so it's been really stressful, nothing life threatening but serious enough to the point he's in the hospital or at the doc all the time, taking a pharmacy of meds and shit. That being said he's one of those guys who's got a pretty good demeanor to him never been one to get down even when times are tough, I always tell him his solution to everything that is wrong is "drink more brew and throw more body punches." B/c those are like his two favorite things.

And yeah he's a riot when we watch races together, lol.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
Yeah he's good ppl, he's an Irish twin so we've always been close, we're always hanging out and busting each others balls watching fights and games, etc. reason why I bring him up so much. still roommates to this day, 10 years plus our whole life before that, haha.

He's been real sick these last few years, tho, so it's been really stressful, nothing life threatening but serious enough to the point he's in the hospital or at the doc all the time, taking a pharmacy of meds and shit. That being said he's one of those guys who's got a pretty good demeanor to him never been one to get down even when times are tough, I always his solution to everything that is wrong is "drink more brew and throw more body punches."

And yeah he's a riot when we watch races together, lol.
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Sorry to hear that about him, bud. That sucks. Sounds like he has the right attitude to overcome whatever he's going through, though. I wish him all the best.

So, uh, being twins and all, are you the same way when watching the races? That would be a riot being in the same room as the Blunt brothers when a race is on and you have money on it.
 
Sharkey said:
Sorry to hear that about him, bud. That sucks. Sounds like he has the right attitude to overcome whatever he's going through, though. I wish him all the best.

So, uh, being twins and all, are you the same way when watching the races? That would be a riot being in the same room as the Blunt brothers when a race is on and you have money on it.
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Thanks for the well wishes, my friend. I'll let him know the Horse Whisperer is sending him good vibes.

He's 11 months younger but yeah we're very close in age, actually were in the same grades in school growing up. Lol he actually is way more optimistic than me when we watch races and all other sports, for that matter. If I tip him on a horse we like itt and he tails it, then he'll be way louder during the race, stands up screaming, a lot like that black dude you showed me in the vid earlier itt, I'm more quiet until the horse gets there and the race is officially over, then we both freak out and it's a lot of swearing and slapping each other's hands to the point where my hand is burning like crazy, lol.

I think I told this story before but when Creator came back in one of the races he won, that was the best. He jumped up out of seat, seemed to jump higher than I've ever seen before, made a squeaky noise like he was hitting puberty again, inaudible, I don't know wtf he was trying to say, funny shit. You me, T, my bro, would all have a helluva time watching the races, that's for sure.
 
@BluntTrauma21 sorry to hear about your brother man, I wish him well

@Sharkey so about this formula. Have you actually posted it in the thread or just bits and pieces? I have to admit my head was spinning trying to follow that conversation between you and Blunt a few weeks back. But, I'm really intrigued now and thinking I'd like to see if I can follow along. Maybe even cap a race myself one day, haha. If you're ok with sharing, that is.
 
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