Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

I'm just going to weight until the post position draws take place before thinking any more on this. I want to say that those take place tomorrow, but with my luck they probably aren't happening til Wednesday.

 

[Sharkey]

 

[Sharkey]

 

[Sharkey]

 

[Sharkey]

That's a really gutsy and confident placement to put US Navy Flag in the Juvenile race on dirt against Bolt d'Oro and others instead of in the Juvenile race on the grass where he likely would have been a heavy favourite.

 

[Sharkey]

Now the draw for the big ones;

 

[Sharkey]

 

[Sharkey]

Gotta love the fact that Collected drew outside Gun Runner, and hopefully his 6/1 morning line odds hold up.

 

[Sharkey]

Alright @t6p. Happy capping, my friend, because it's all yours from here.

 

[Sharkey]

Elate listed as the 2nd choice in the Distaff. Don't see that sticking as I think she goes off as a pretty clear favourite in that race if people have been paying attention lately. She's been running like she's had a rocket attached to her bum in both her races and workouts the last couple of months.

 

[Sharkey]

There's a whole lot of speed signed up in the BC Mile with Heart to Heart, Midnight Storm, World Approval, Blackjackcat all entered. If I'm remembering right I think the #9 Home of The Brave is an early speed type as well. This may be the opportunity for bettors to get that late running longshot home 1st.

 

[Sharkey]

Zelzal may end up being that horse in the Mile. G1 winner overseas, and then placed in another G1 over there. Raced against the favourite in Ribchester a couple of months ago and may have been a little unlucky as Zelzal started to make a run at that one in that race, but Ribchester came down and squeezed Zelzal along the rail, stunting his momentum. Trip handicappers are probably going to like Zelzal here I'm thinking.

 

[t6p]

Alright @t6p. Happy capping, my friend, because it's all yours from here.

Oh boy Sharkey, that's dangerous. If we're talking MMA capping I might have a chance but horse racing, that's just asking for disaster. I think I'd need two lifetimes to catch up to you bud.

 

[Sharkey]

Oh boy Sharkey, that's dangerous. If we're talking MMA capping I might have a chance but horse racing, that's just asking for disaster. I think I'd need two lifetimes to catch up to you bud.

All you need is a dart board to catch up to me, T, with the way I'm going.

But I'm going to be betting this year's BC from home, though, so whatever I bet won't be decided until a few minutes before each race. I'm getting a little frustrated with backing horses that go off significantly shorter than what their morning line odds are predicted to be, plus I'd like to have something on a race if I see a horse go off longer than what I think they should be. There's also that extra little bit of visual information that I could use to help me make a pick when it comes to post parade and stuff.

 

[t6p]

All you need is a dart board to catch up to me, T, with the way I'm going.

But I'm going to be betting this year's BC from home, though, so whatever I bet won't be decided until a few minutes before each race. I'm getting a little frustrated with backing horses that go off significantly shorter than what their morning line odds are predicted to be, plus I'd like to have something on a race if I see a horse go off longer than what I think they should be. There's also that extra little bit of visual information that I could use to help me make a pick when it comes to post parade and stuff.

I hear ya. I've been on a little bit of a rough run myself with the MMA stuff. The important thing is to remember that it's all about the long term. No matter who you are, there's always going to be variance. Nobody wins all the time.

Small tweaks to your strategy are good at times like these and it sounds like that's exactly what you're doing. Hope it works out for you my man.

 

[Sharkey]

I hear ya. I've been on a little bit of a rough run myself with the MMA stuff. The important thing is to remember that it's all about the long term. No matter who you are, there's always going to be variance. Nobody wins all the time.

Small tweaks to your strategy are good at times like these and it sounds like that's exactly what you're doing. Hope it works out for you my man.

This is something I used to do and still do on occasion when I bet a race or two while down at the OTB. Posting plays in advance like I do on here leaves out some key information when it comes to odds, positive/negative appearance in the minutes leading up the the race, and things like that. I can't tell you how many times I've sat here watching races and thinking " I wished I had money on that horse" or vice versa when one of the horses I bet on goes off at lower odds than I'd like or is acting a little silly before the race. Additional information is always good.

 

[t6p]

This is something I used to do and still do on occasion when I bet a race or two while down at the OTB. Posting plays in advance like I do on here leaves out some key information when it comes to odds, positive/negative appearance in the minutes leading up the the race, and things like that. I can't tell you how many times I've sat here watching races and thinking " I wished I had money on that horse" or vice versa when one of the horses I bet on goes off at lower odds than I'd like or is acting a little silly before the race. Additional information is always good.

Absolutely. Not having the ability to lock in odds makes horse racing one of, if not the hardest sports to handicap in my opinion. It makes it so much more difficult to determine where the "value" actually lies.

 

[airic_15]

sup fellas will be studying the next couple days will post all my picks before friday/saturday

 

[waiguoren]

@Sharkey

I know nothing about this sport or betting on it. Are you making a living at it?

 

[kenfloshogun]

Does anybody know of a good online racebook for us Canadian folk? I'm going to try to bet this year's Breeders Cup from home for once.

Bet365 is a must use, they lock your odds in as soon as you bet them. If you bet the horse at 6/1 you get him at 6/1 don't have to worry about the betting pools shifting the lines.