Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[airic_15]

Ah, that's too bad. That's actually the very first rule I learned when it came to betting horses (or betting anything really); "If you like a horse never let anybody talk you off of it". It doesn't matter who's doing to the talking, the person giving advice is ripping up tickets a lot more often than they are cashing. It's just the way the game is. I kinda hate when there's a lot of people who like the same horse I do because, since we're betting into a parimutual pool, I'm trying to beat all those people by picking a horse that they may not be looking at. That's why I try to come up with all these silly systems that I do. I'm looking for a way to do things in this game that is entirely my own just because there's no real value in handicapping the races the same way everybody else does. If everybody is using the same methods then odds are everybody is going to be on the same horses and deflating the price in the process. I want something different, and that's what I try to do.

I feel im the same why, well except from my dad since he taught me how to read the form we think and bet alot alike

 

[Sharkey]

Friday Nov 3
Race 9
Unlike the last race i feel like there is no speed in this race and #7 Paradise woods is going to wire them like she did in the oaks
Playing the 2 stellar wind, 4 abel tasman, and 5 elate behind her. Dont see much money to be made in this race, maybe the 8 romantic vision can run the race of her life to get a piece but i would be shocked

Bets
Exacta 7/2,4,5

The 2nd rule I learned in betting the horses was don't forget about win bets. Haha.

That's got to be a situation that's worth placing a win bet on Paradise Woods for you, no? She'll probably be a good price in the 6/1 range (maybe even higher).

 

[airic_15]

The 2nd rule I learned in betting the horses was don't forget about win bets. Haha.

That's got to be a situation that's worth placing a win bet on Paradise Woods for you, no? She'll probably be a good price in the 6/1 range (maybe even higher).

Ya forgot to post that i will be placing a win bet on her too

 

[Sharkey]

This Juvenile Turf race for the boys is looking like one big crapshoot to me now that we know that horses like Nelson or US Navy Flag aren't entering it. Really not sure what way to lean in the race at all, although that horse that @gcoogan1 mentioned before, Mendelssohn, does look kinda interesting and playable if his 8/1 morning line holds up. We'll see. But at this point I could see myself just taking a small flyer on a longshot, double digit odds horse and let the chips fall where they may.

I think that longshot has to be Sands of Mali who, at 30/1 on the morning line, may end up being the longest shot on the board. You know, if you can find a reason to draw a line through his last race, which came on soft ground, this guy actually looks like he has about as good a shot as any in the field and better than most. And I think I can find some reason to draw a line through it since it looked like he may have gotten squeezed somewhat when the real running began, which totally messed with his head and caused him to throw a fit. Before that, though, he was a clear winner in a G2 race over firmer ground, and he did beat some good horses in that race as well in Invincible Army (G3 winner and multiple G2 placed) and Cardsharp (G2 winner and G1 & G2 placed...also beat US Navy Flag in July). Sands of Mali is also tied with Mendelssohn as having the highest Racing Post rating of all the horses entered in this race at a 115. If you were just basing things on his last race then you'd say that this guy has no business running in this race. But guess what? His connection did fly him and themselves half way around the world to have a go at it, and I think that's kind of telling by itself. Even if you can't excuse his last race he does has class & form in his PP's that suggests this guy stands a much better chance than his 30/1 morning line says he has. Especially in this year's field where there's no a single standout to be found anywhere.

 

[Sharkey]

I think I've given thoughts on all four of the BC races for Friday haven't I? Like I said yesterday, I won't be making any final decision until right before post time for these races. But these are who I'm looking at 3 days out, and I think most of my focus will be on win/place bets this year;


Juvenile Fillies Turf - I'd probably bet #10 September at 5/1 or better (hoping for even longer though), although Happily will be hard to ignore at is the public does somehow let her go off at her 9/2 morning line odds, which I think is very unlikely. May box those two in an exacta as well.

Dirt Mile - Accelerate with the home field advantage over a track that he likes a lot. I'm likely to back him at anything other than him being the short priced favourite (which he won't be) and as long as he looks okay in the minutes leading up to the race. Both Practical Joke and Awesome Slew are options in 2nd if I'm going to play an exacta or two.

Juvenile Turf - Sands of Mali. Might as well go big in such a wide open race. May have issues with being an immature type, so if he acts up a little before the race Mendelssohn may be the backup plan.

Distaff - I'll take the rapidly improving Elate at anything other than her being the favourite. Even then I think she'd have to be a clear favourite for me to avoid betting her. Don't really have an alternative, although will be open to others on viewing the post parade and such.

 

[Sharkey]

Princess Warrior looks interesting to me at double digit odds in the Juvenile Fillies race on dirt, which will kick off the BC portion of the card on Saturday. I really like the stride she shows for such an inexperience horse, and she should also finally get a pace to run at for once, which she never got in either of her first two races. She was able to overcome a slow early pace in her debut against weaker types, but last time out she just had to much work to do with the winner being able to stalk outside a cheaper speed type over slow fractions. Princess Warrior was able to make a big run still coming along wide on the turn to get up for 2nd, although the winner was well clear of her. You put 13 young horses on the track in front of a big crowd charging them up with noise, and with about 5 other horses in the race who like to run on or near the lead already (and most are drawn outside so they may be forced to go with a short run to the 1st turn), and I think Princess Warrior will finally have a shot to show what she is capable of under race conditions more suited to her. She's 12/1 on the morning line also, so she may offer up some value in a race that has recently been won by some huge priced longshots (Champagne Room last year, Take Charge Brandi in '14, Rio Antonia in '13, etc).

 

[Sharkey]

This Turf Sprint on Saturday doesn't look all that appealing as a betting race. Maybe Pure Sensation plays a game of "catch me if you can" with him breaking from that outside post in a race that doesn't look like there is a whole lot of early speed entered. But he's such a hard guy to trust with him looking like a world beater one race and then a complete turd the next. Who knows what version of himself shows up. May be a question worth answering if he goes off at his 10/1 morning line odds. Lady Aurelia is completely logical, but also likely to be the clear favourite and I would prefer to try to beat her if I can. Disco Partner looks okay after setting a record in his last race over a souped up track, but he may be up against it from a race shape standpoint. Yeah, I don't know which way to go here. At 12/1 on the morning line maybe the in form Bucchero is an option if you think he can handle the class test. I'll have to sit on this race for a bit I think to see if it's a play or pass.

 

[Sharkey]

Lots of speed signed on to the F&M Sprint and lots of speed that is going to be forced to go early to get position because of their post position draws. That makes a classy, consistent, and in form off the pace type like the #10 Highway Star extremely appealing to me at anything close to her 15/1 morning line.

She may win, but Unique Bella has got to be the play against favourite for the whole weekend, no? She's not any faster than a few of these and she hasn't been racing against the quality fields most of these have either. Plus she just returned to the races a few weeks ago after being off for 7 months.

 

[Sharkey]

There's some really, really, really fast horses in this BC Sprint race that like to be up there on the lead. Takaful, Drefong, and Imperial Hint. Both Drefong in the #2 hole and Imperial Hint drawing the outside #10 gate also drew post positions that says they're probably going to have to go. Something has got to give there and I have a hard time seeing how it doesn't since all three of those only know one way to go. Can you say "meltdown"? That's what I'm seeing there., and so to me I want to back a horse that is coming from out of it in this race. Mind Your Biscuits is an option of course, but his no show effort in his last race makes it hard to back him here. Granted he didn't have much of a pace to run at in that one with Drefong being allowed to sit an easy lead through fractions on the soft side. But other closers in that race were able to do some running late to pick up some pieces and he wasn't one of them. He's not without a shot (and a big one) if he can get back to form, although he may not be that great of a price. Whitmore has the style to take advantage of that sort of race shape as well, but he has seemed to tail off over this 2nd half of the year finished 3rd a couple of times and then winning in a blanket finishes that typically says that nobody really ran all that good. Ransom the Moon has the style, but I backed him in his last race and he barely lifted a hoof for me in that one so I don't want to go back to him here. Plus both Whitmore and Ransom the Moon are a little light on the speed figures even if they do get back to their best.

The horse I think I'm probably going to back is American Pastime. He's an improving 3 year-old just getting good at the right time and with the right running style to take advantage of a hot pace up front if that develops in this race. In fact I backed him in his last race and he just missed after a gallant effort when he had a few things go against him (missed break, wide trip, slow pace, etc). He earned a big figure for that race (105 Beyer, 107 Brisnet), and a figure that would make him very competitive in this field. Another slight improvement in this spot and he may be one of the main horses to beat regardless of the pace dynamics being in his favour or not. He's one of only three horses who have won a race at this Del Mar track when he did so back in August at this distance. He's also been firing bullets in his most recent workouts, having done so with his workout on the 27th at Del Mar as well as his workout before on the 20th at Santa Anita. I saw his most recent workout when it happened and he just annilated his workmate in that drill after breaking off way behind his mate. This guy is on "go" and is showing that big number that he put up last time out has taken nothing out of him.

He's in the green and yellow silks here;

 

[Sharkey]

Here's the workout of American Pastime that I mentioned that happened on the 27th. Full of run, full of energy and he just inhales his workmate. Tthen wants to do even more in the gallop out portion of the work with his ears perked straight up just waiting for the command from the rider to do so. He's a ready one and should be double digit odds come Saturday (12/1 morning line).

http://www.xbtv.com/video/workout/a...ngs-in-46-00-at-del-mar-on-october-27th-2017/

 

[Sharkey]

Also, if you watch that race there from about the 0:20 to the 0:40 mark you'll see that American Pastime was making a very strong middle move during that portion of the running, and you guys know what I think about betting horses off a middle move in their previous race.

 

[Sharkey]

I think that's it, no? They may be a little out of order, but I think I gave out some preliminary thoughts on all the BC races over the last few days.

 

[Sharkey]

Not that I'm complaining mind you, because I'm going to get a price in the Classic. But I have a hard time understanding the view that the Classic is a 2 horse race between Arrogate and Gun Runner. To me it's either a 1 horse if Arrogate returns to peak form. Or a 3 horse race if he is just a little bit short of that. I mean, why is Gun Runner considered so much better than Collected?

Gun Runner's high Beyer this year is a 115. Collected's high Beyer this year is also a 115, which happened to come on this very track at this same 10F distance. Gun Runner's 2nd highest Beyer is a 112. Collected's 2nd highest Beyer is a 111. Gun Runner's average Brisnet figure over his last 3 races is a 109. Collected's average Brisnet figure is also a 109. Recent speed figures say they are pretty much the exact same horse when it comes to quality.

Collected has also beaten better horses than Gun Runner this year as well. Collected has beaten Arrogate on the square and also holds two wins over Accelerate. Both of those horses are better than anything Gun Runner's beaten this year (Breaking Lucky, Honorable Duty, Keen Ice, Rally Cry, Neolithic, etc., aren't much compared to who Collected beat). Unlike Gun Runner, Collected has already proven able to win at the 10F distance, and he has also won over this Del Mar.

Gun Runner has looked in peak form based on his most recent workouts, but you know what, so has Collected.

e.g.

https://www.horseracingnation.com/n...tellar_work_for_Breeders_Cup_Classic_2017_123

https://www.horseracingnation.com/n..._workout_in_final_Breeders_Cup_2017_drill_123


Collected also drew outside Gun Runner and as such will have the tactical advantage of being able to sit an outside stalking trip if he wants it. Or inherit the lead if it's there for the taking. Gun Runner, being drawn inside, is either going to have to go, or be at the mercy of whatever Collected does.

Gun Runner is 9/5 on the morning line whereas Collected is 6/1. Why? Because Gun Runner was better as a 3 year-old, which is an age neither are at anymore? I don't get it. But I'm not complaining, though. Hopefully Collected continues to be disrespected in comparison to Gun Runner when folks go to the windows on Saturday.

 

[t6p]

5dimes has some odds available for Saturday:

Breeders' Cup Classic - Winner - Del Mar Racetrack - Del Mar, CA

Arrogate +225
War Decree +4000
Win The Space +4000
War Story +4000
Gun Runner +160
Mubtaahij +2300
Churchill +2000
West Coast +500
Gunnevera +3000
Pavel +4000
Collected +500

Breeders' Cup Longines Turf - Winner - Del Mar Racetrack - Del Mar, CA

Talismanic +1500
Bullards Alley +2000
Highland Reel +210
Decorated Knight +850
Ulysses +250
Cliffs of Moher +1500
Itsinthepost +3750
Bigger Picture +2750
Seventh Heaven +1200
Fanciful Angel +3300
Hunt +4000
Beach Patrol +700
Sadler's Joy +2000
Oscar Performance +1750

Breeders' Cup Mile - Winner - Del Mar Racetrack - Del Mar, CA

Midnight Storm +2300
Heart to Heart +1800
Mr. Roary +6000
Lancaster Bomber +1000
World Approval +250
Zelzal +1000
OM +2500
Suedois +750
Home of the Brave +1800
Ribchester +280
Ballagh Rocks +2800
Roly Poly +550
Blackjackcat +2800
Karar +2000

Possibly some value on Pavel, 20/1 morning line, 40/1 available here? Would have liked a better price on Collected, but he's shorter than the morning line so I'll wait to see if it improves. Same deal with Zelzal, 20/1 on the morning line and only 10/1 here.

 

[Sharkey]

5dimes has some odds available for Saturday:

Breeders' Cup Classic - Winner - Del Mar Racetrack - Del Mar, CA

Arrogate +225
War Decree +4000
Win The Space +4000
War Story +4000
Gun Runner +160
Mubtaahij +2300
Churchill +2000
West Coast +500
Gunnevera +3000
Pavel +4000
Collected +500

Breeders' Cup Longines Turf - Winner - Del Mar Racetrack - Del Mar, CA

Talismanic +1500
Bullards Alley +2000
Highland Reel +210
Decorated Knight +850
Ulysses +250
Cliffs of Moher +1500
Itsinthepost +3750
Bigger Picture +2750
Seventh Heaven +1200
Fanciful Angel +3300
Hunt +4000
Beach Patrol +700
Sadler's Joy +2000
Oscar Performance +1750

Breeders' Cup Mile - Winner - Del Mar Racetrack - Del Mar, CA

Midnight Storm +2300
Heart to Heart +1800
Mr. Roary +6000
Lancaster Bomber +1000
World Approval +250
Zelzal +1000
OM +2500
Suedois +750
Home of the Brave +1800
Ribchester +280
Ballagh Rocks +2800
Roly Poly +550
Blackjackcat +2800
Karar +2000

Possibly some value on Pavel, 20/1 morning line, 40/1 available here? Would have liked a better price on Collected, but he's shorter than the morning line so I'll wait to see if it improves. Same deal with Zelzal, 20/1 on the morning line and only 10/1 here.

I'm not big on Pavel myself, T, although I would never try to talk someone off a 40/1 shot. So we'll leave it at that.

If you're looking for value with those odds you posted there, Sadler's Joy at 20/1 in the BC Turf jumps off the page for me. Not sure he can beat the two Euros in Ulysses and Highland Reel, but he's certainly proven his class when it comes to the NA turf runners being a G1 & G2 winner, as well as multiple placements in G1 & G2 races. He's only finished off the board once in his last 10 races, and that was his last race when you and I backed him in the exacta only to see him miss 2nd by a jump or two. Other than that he's always hitting the board. Not only that, he hits the board while being right there in contention for the win at the wire pretty much all the time save for the last race when Beach Patrol freaked, and then one other time when the turf course came up wet. He'll be making his typical late run from way out of it, and this race should feature some kind of pace for him to run at with Beach Patrol, Highland Reel, Oscar Performance, Itsinthepost, etc entered. He's also coming into this BC race with being borderline to fit that E2 angle I always mentioned having ran an E2 of 108 his last race after having ran a E2 of no higher than 99 in any of his previous 5 races (I like to see a 10 or more point increase there, but 9 is okay too). Last time he entered a race off a E2 increase his previous race he ended up winning.

 

[Sharkey]

Speaking of that E2 angle, it looks like the one BC race I haven't brought up yet is the F&M Turf. To me, the #8 Grand Jete is clearly the horse for me to bet in that race regardless if she ends up winning or not. She's going into this race as an off the pace type who was forced to run an E2 of 113 last time out after having never ran an E2 of more than 90 in any of her previous races in NA. Under an even race flow she was clearly the best horse in that race (a G1), but she ended up getting challenged way early by another horse and didn't quite have enough left at the end to hold off those coming from further back. The horse that challenged her early was a very good horse herself (G1 winner, Beat last year's Arc winner Found, Sadler's Joy and many others) yet that one faded badly to finish last. Grand Jete had to repel the challenge of that one and only just faded herself in the last few steps beaten to the wire by a length.

In her race before that, which was another G1, Grand Jete was once again clearly the best horse in the race to my eyes and was extremely unlucky not to have won it. She looked locked and loaded sitting mid pack as they came around the turn, but the jock had a tight hold on her. Once the field hit the stretch and the real running began it wasn't long before Grand Jete got sideswiped by another horse and then got blocked in really badly behind other horses. The jock had to put the hard brakes on her. She finally got clear to run during the final 1/16th, but by then it was too late. The trouble she encountered had already done her in. Yet she still accelerated out of there and was only a couple of steps from winning the thing anyways as she was beat less than a length despite all the trouble she encountered.

Here's those last two races of hers (she's in the pink and green silks). She should be coming into this race after a pair of G1 wins if it was just based on talent. But because she encountered some bad luck as far as the racing flow went in one, and then loads of trouble during the stretch of the other, she has nothing to show for it. I think there's a very good chance she gets that G1 win this weekend at a fairly good price.

 

[Sharkey]

My early thoughts on Saturday's card after doing a once over of all BC races that day;


Juvenile Fillies - I can see myself trying to get Princess Warrior home 1st or 2nd as she should be double digit odds.

Turf Sprint - Not quite sure yet, but maybe Purse Sensation is worth a try at double digit odds.

F&M Sprint - Probably another double digit odds horse in Highway Star for 1st or 2nd

F&M Turf - Grand Jete

Sprint - American Pastime in 1st or 2nd

Mile - Zelzal in 1st or 2nd

Juvenile - Good Magic in 1st or 2nd, and then maybe a saver exacta with him underneath Bolt d'Oro

Turf - Ulysses looks like the clear horse to beat for me with maybe a little Sadler's Joy to finish just behind him if they allow him to go off a long odds

Classic - Collected to take it all considering odds with a little bit of Gunnevera to finish 2nd or 3rd

 

[t6p]

I'm not big on Pavel myself, T, although I would never try to talk someone off a 40/1 shot. So we'll leave it at that.

If you're looking for value with those odds you posted there, Sadler's Joy at 20/1 in the BC Turf jumps off the page for me. Not sure he can beat the two Euros in Ulysses and Highland Reel, but he's certainly proven his class when it comes to the NA turf runners being a G1 & G2 winner, as well as multiple placements in G1 & G2 races. He's only finished off the board once in his last 10 races, and that was his last race when you and I backed him in the exacta only to see him miss 2nd by a jump or two. Other than that he's always hitting the board. Not only that, he hits the board while being right there in contention for the win at the wire pretty much all the time save for the last race when Beach Patrol freaked, and then one other time when the turf course came up wet. He'll be making his typical late run from way out of it, and this race should feature some kind of pace for him to run at with Beach Patrol, Highland Reel, Oscar Performance, Itsinthepost, etc entered. He's also coming into this BC race with being borderline to fit that E2 angle I always mentioned having ran an E2 of 108 his last race after having ran a E2 of no higher than 99 in any of his previous 5 races (I like to see a 10 or more point increase there, but 9 is okay too). Last time he entered a race off a E2 increase his previous race he ended up winning.

Thanks for the input, Shark. That's right, I knew Sadler's Joy sounded familar, but I couldn't place him. I'm going to take a little stab at the +2000 for now.

 

[Sharkey]

Thanks for the input, Shark. That's right, I knew Sadler's Joy sounded familar, but I couldn't place him. I'm going to take a little stab at the +2000 for now.

That's the way our luck has been going isn't it? We back a horse to finish up there again after doing so for 9 straight races and he ends up finishing off the board in 4th. Haha. Oh well. We'll turn it around and it'll be this weekend that we do so. Last year we went through similar timing for our hot and cold streaks. We had a very good winter & spring in 2016 before tailing off in the summer and early fall from what I remember. We then started turning things around with last year's Breeders Cup, which we did okay in, and that carried us til the spring again this year. We've basically been running opposite of the what the weather is outside. When it gets cool/cold outside we start to warm up with this stuff. When it starts to warm up and get hot outside we start to get cold. Right? Right, T? Please say yes. Haha.

 

[t6p]

That's the way our luck has been going isn't it? We back a horse to finish up there again after doing so for 9 straight races and he ends up finishing off the board in 4th. Haha. Oh well. We'll turn it around and it'll be this weekend that we do so. Last year we went through similar timing for our hot and cold streaks. We had a very good winter & spring in 2016 before tailing off in the summer and early fall from what I remember. We then started turning things around with last year's Breeders Cup, which we did okay in, and that carried us til the spring again this year. We've basically been running opposite of the what the weather is outside. When it gets cool/cold outside we start to warm up with this stuff. When it starts to warm up and get hot outside we start to get cold. Right? Right, T? Please say yes. Haha.

Sounds right to me bud! Haha, my memory isn't what it used to be but I do feel like you got us off to a great start this spring for sure. A hot streak is coming sooner rather than later, I feel very confident in saying that.