Finished my 2nd and final look at the Dirt Mile race for tomorrow, and I have to say that Awesome Slew looks better to me than I initially thought he would. This guy actually checks the boxes as a contender in all four of the major categories. Those being class, form, speed, and race shape. He also has one of the best jocks in the country riding him, as well as a very good trainer conditioning him if you want to look at secondary stuff like that.
Over his last 8 graded stakes races (G1-G3) he has produced a 2-4-1 record in them with his only off the board finish being a 4th in the Met Mile earlier this year. But that was also a sneaky good race I thought considering the top 2 finishers ran 1-2 around the track over moderate fractions beneficial to them, and Awesome Slew was forced to come way, way wide around the far turn. Still made his run late and almost got up for 3rd. Awesome Slew has also finished in front a lot of good sprint and middle distance horses this year.
He's also in good form right now having finished 2nd, 2nd, and 1st in his last three races. Tomorrow's race will also be his third start off a layoff, and he'll be going into the race after having paired his Brisnet Figures his last two races.
Awesome Slew has ran Brisnet figures of 107 and 105 this year, which puts him just behind what the the top three betting choices have done, and ahead of all the rest. If he can run a similar number tomorrow he'll be a major contender.
The race shape should favour him as well with horses like Sharp Azteca, Mor Spirit and Gato Del Oro entered. Accelerate has also been showing early speed in his last two races, although I would expect that one to sit out of it just a little bit in this race and try to look for a stalk & pounce type trip. There should be a at least a fast pace for Awesome Slew to try to run down late, if not even a very fast pace. A fast pace is something that Awesome Slew hasn't been able to see much of at all this year, yet he has still produced good finishes at the end. He had very little pace to run at in his last race and yet was still able to get to the wire first. The horse he beat in that race, The Player, had everything his own way stalking outside a slow pace, and Awesome Slew was still able to run him down and clear him. The Player is the horse who just came back from that race to win the G2 Fayette over this past weekend, thus flattering Awesome Slew somewhat in the process.
The race before that was the G1 Forego which is a race that Awesome Slew finished 2nd in. But that was the race that the top class sprinter in Drefong got away with an easy uncontested lead in the early going over fairly soft fractions. A horse like Drefong is supposed to win that and win it clearly. yet Awesome Slew still ran very well even if his chances were out the window due to the flow of the race set by a top horse like that. He was clearly the horse that was finishing best in that race besides Drefong, and showed a much better late move than horses like Mind Your Biscuits or Tom's Ready, who just came back this past weekend to take a very good sprint race at Belmont with a strong late kick. Awesome Slew has outkicked Tom's Ready every time they have faced each other I do believe and that one is one of the top closing sprinters in the country.
Awesome Slew's performance this spring at Keeneland in the G2 Commonwealth is I think one of the very best performances a sprinter/middle distance runner has ran this year. The pace was slow considering distance with a group of about 6 horses all bunched up in the early running. Awesome Slew was well behind that group early. The 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place finishers all being amongst that early group. All those horses were no slouch either as it included Limousine Liberal who was a quality graded stakes sprinter type, as well as AP Indian who's a multiple G1 winning sprinter and was 2nd choice in last year's BC Sprint (he finished 3rd, while Limosine Liberal finished 4th in last year's Sprint). No closers made up any ground late save for Awesome Slew, who mowed them all down in the stretch to win pretty easily despite being up against it as far as race flow went and aginst good horses.
Awesome Slew is 12/1 on the morning line, and with apologies to Practical Joke, looks like the best closer in the race through these eyes (he has late pace figs of 110 & 120 this year whereas Practical Joke is in the 105 range). Awesome Slew is also faster on the figures than Practical Joke overall, and is obviously more proven at this class level against older horses. Practical Joke, being a 3 year-old, does have the upside in his corner, though. But Awesome Slew is twice the price on the morning line odds between the two, and I think a much better bet whether he's worth a win play or an underneath spot in 2nd or 3rd. I'm using him along with Accelerate as my two horses for the race. I pretty much have to use him if he goes off at 12/1.
