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Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

Just saw on twitter that Winx is set to run again today in what will be her 5th race in just over 2 months. Great to see that kind of activity from a top class horse like that and I wished North American trainers would take note.
 
Sharkey said:
Just saw on twitter that Winx is set to run again today in what will be her 5th race in just over 2 months. Great to see that kind of activity from a top class horse like that and I wished North American trainers would take note.
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Most likely her last race this prep too going for her 3rd Cox Plate in a row
 
My plays for a few of tomorrow's graded stakes races;


G3 Bold Ruler (race 9 at Belmont);

- #11 Divining Rod to win for 1u
- #11 Divining Rod & #7 Stallwalkin Dude exacta box for 0.5u


G2 Fayette (race 9 at Keeneland);

- #5 Honorable Duty to win for 2u
- #1 Guiseppe the Great to place for 1u
- #5 Honorable Duty over #1 Guiseppe the Great in a straight exacta for 0.5u


G2 Twilight Derby (race 9 at Santa Anita);

- #8 Channel Maker to win for 1u and to place for 1.5u
- #8 Channel Maker & #6 Sharp Samurai exacta box for 0.5u


Channel Maker is 10/1 on the morning line in that Twilight Derby and I'm praying to god that line sticks. I have him as the top horse going into the race based on my numbers by a full point over Smart Samurai (the others are 3 or more points behind), and he has a lot going for him going in. Highest last out Brisnet. Has paired his Brisnet figures over his last two races, which is usually a good sign. Is taken a significant class drop tomorrow going from a G1 race against older horses on the east coast (where he finished mid pack) to a G2 race restricted to 3 year-olds on the west coast, which is the weaker coast when it comes to turf horses. Will be making his 3rd start of his form cycle after a layoff, which is a positive. Doesn't quite have the E2 angle going for him coming off his last race, but it's close after having ran an E2 of 112 last time out as compared to 105 his previous start. Had not ran an E2 of more than 94 in his previous 5 starts with 3 of those in the 70's, so maybe this might be a double E2 angle? Don't know. But even if that isn't a thing he has a whole lot of stuff going for him as a nice 10/1 shot.
 
Mga223 said:
Everyone picking her to lose today.

Hoping they all end up dissapointed.
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I've seen some people picking against her too on my twitter timeline. They look like they are trying to beat her with a horse named Gaileo something.
 
Sharkey said:
I've seen some people picking against her too on my twitter timeline. They look like they are trying to beat her with a horse named Gaileo something.
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I think if anything royal symphony might give her a go.

Galio chop I think 21 fixed.

I don't know man I don't see her getting beat by anyone but herself....

Amazing horse win or lose though hope it gets it.


Ps. Was at the tab with my old man today, he usually just puts money on roughies, I picked him a good one $126/1 falcon rubi.

Ill put up a photo after for you.
 
Watch out for Keenland tomorrow - the weather is supposed to be bad - rain or even snow.

I'm just concerned about my horse running tomorrow (she's just an allowance type on smaller tracks - she's at Turf Paradise tomorrow
 
Mga223 said:
I think if anything royal symphony might give her a go.

Galio chop I think 21 fixed.

I don't know man I don't see her getting beat by anyone but herself....

Amazing horse win or lose though hope it gets it.


Ps. Was at the tab with my old man today, he usually just puts money on roughies, I picked him a good one $126/1 falcon rubi.

Ill put up a photo after for you.
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Conditioning won't be her, as she has the visual appearance of a horse in absolute peak condition. Whether it was the sunlight or not, you almost never see a horse's dapples stand out as much as hers does in that video there. I don't know what's she's running against today, but the only thing that might get her beat is the trip and some bad luck. She was a little lucky to get up for the win a few starts back when she missed the break and was left at the start.

And holy shit shit, M, are you on fire or what? An 88/1 shot a couple weeks ago. Now a 126/1 shot? That's insane man. Fantastic job. We almost never get 88/1 shots on this side of the world nevermind a 126/1 shot. And if we do then they just don't win. It's pretty rare that a horse north of 20/1 wins.
 
NewcastleTom said:
Watch out for Keenland tomorrow - the weather is supposed to be bad - rain or even snow.

I'm just concerned about my horse running tomorrow (she's just an allowance type on smaller tracks - she's at Turf Paradise tomorrow
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Thanks for the heads up regarding Keeneland, Tom. I wasn't aware of that.

You the owner? If so, what's your horse's name? I'll drop a $10 win bet on her and root her on.
 
Sharkey said:
Conditioning won't be her, as she has the visual appearance of a horse in absolute peak condition. Whether it was the sunlight or not, you almost never see a horse's dapples stand out as much as hers does in that video there. I don't know what's she's running against today, but the only thing that might get her beat is the trip and some bad luck. She was a little lucky to get up for the win a few starts back when she missed the break and was left at the start.

And holy shit shit, M, are you on fire or what? An 88/1 shot a couple weeks ago. Now a 126/1 shot? That's insane man. Fantastic job. We almost never get 88/1 shots on this side of the world nevermind a 126/1 shot. And if we do then they just don't win. It's pretty rare that a horse north of 20/1 wins.
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Mate pure ass is all it is, you know how lucky it was, the 2 threw the jockey off so the race didn't start on time.

My God what a friggen horse!!!
 
Sharkey said:
Thanks for the heads up regarding Keeneland, Tom. I wasn't aware of that.

You the owner? If so, what's your horse's name? I'll drop a $10 win bet on her and root her on.
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Yeah she's the #2 in the 7th, Paddy's Secret, she's bled twice, got left twice and won her other 2 (out of 6). She bled at 2-5 in a $50,000 stake race ugh. I'm just 1 of 5 people who own her.
 
NewcastleTom said:
Yeah she's the #2 in the 7th, Paddy's Secret, she's bled twice, got left twice and won her other 2 (out of 6). She bled at 2-5 in a $50,000 stake race ugh. I'm just 1 of 5 people who own her.
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She looks like like she has about as good a shot as any in the field based on the figs and she looks like she's taking a small drop in class after her last one which she won. I'll take a small shot with her. Why not. Best of luck to you and your whole team tomorrow.
 
Mga223 said:
Mate pure ass is all it is, you know how lucky it was, the 2 threw the jockey off so the race didn't start on time.

My God what a friggen horse!!!
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She had to dig deep and work for that one at the end didn't she, M? Very nice. I've only caught the stretch run so far, so waiting to see the full race.
 
Sharkey said:
She looks like like she has about as good a shot as any in the field based on the figs and she looks like she's taking a small drop in class after her last one which she won. I'll take a small shot with her. Why not. Best of luck to you and your whole team tomorrow.
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The two horses that finished 2nd and 3rd to Paddy's Secret in her last race were also next out winners, so you got to like that about her as well.
 
Sharkey said:
She had to dig deep and work for that one at the end didn't she, M? Very nice. I've only caught the stretch run so far, so waiting to see the full race.
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Bowman said in his interview after that he knew she had it and that he felt like she could tell where humidor was.

Looked scary but I think bowman was just playing to the crowd.
 
Mga223 said:
Bowman said in his interview after that he knew she had it and that he felt like she could tell where humidor was.

Looked scary but I think bowman was just playing to the crowd.
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I can believe that he had the other horse measured actually after having watching the stretch run a 2nd time. The video I'm watching isn't the clearest, but it looks like he only went to the whip once in the stretch and then possibly one more time near the line.
 
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