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Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

Only 9 days away from the Breeders Cup. May be a little too early to start getting excited, but I've been feeling it the last couple of days. Can't wait. Pre-entries for all 13 of the BC races came out today.

 
I have to wait to run the numbers on the Classic and all the other races, but off the top I could see myself backing horses like Collected, West Coast, and then Gunnevera as a exotics filler even though it doesn't feel right backing two 3 year-olds. I've been watching and following most of the workouts of all the BC runners the past few days, and Gun Runner has looked sensational in them. As expected I guess. I mean, you'd expect really good horses to be really good workout horses more often than not, right? He's going to take some beating. But I think you still have to question who he's been beating out on the east coast no matter how impressively he's done so. 10F may (or may not) be an issue for him against this type of field as well since he is so far 0-3 at that distance. But then again two of those losses were last year at 3 (and one to Arrogate in the Travers), and the loss this year was also against Arrogate in Dubai when that one just happened to put on about as impressive as a run as you'll ever see. As for Arrogate himself, he has looked a little better in his most recent workout at least as far as his concentration levels go and keeping to his task. But he still doesn't look like the same horse he was last year and earlier this year when his workouts were blowing people away with how good they were. Still isn't striding out with the length he showed in the past either. Still excellent stride length, but no longer the freakish length we once saw in him. Makes we wonder if he was some minor issue in the back end or something as it's been months now.
 
Gunnevera would be the closer I want in this race as of now. Much prefer him to Keen Ice who's basically a plodder that can stay all day. And Gunnevera is likely to be at least twice the odds of those two as well. He also has a turn of foot that Keen Ice has never shown he's had. You guys know I'm a big fan of betting horses in their next race after making a middle move in their previous one, and Gunnevera did make a big middle move in the Travers and arguably ran the best race of that whole field all things considered. The last time Gunnevera made a middle move only to come up short was in the Holy Bull this spring. In his next race he crushed the field in the Fountain of Youth. Granted this is a much tougher task than beating a good, but distanced challenged horse like Practical Joke or a quitter like Irish War Cry. That was a big effort for him, and contributed to his lackluster efforts in the Derby and Preakness, and the horse looked absolutely zapped of energy going into both those races and had also lost significant weight. He got a much needed break after those two efforts and then got back to form winning a minor stakes this summer and then a very good 2nd in the Travers. I think there's a good chance he's sitting on his best effort with the only question for me being what does that "best effort" get him as far as a finish goes. 2nd or 3rd? 4th, 5th or 6th? We'll find out next week I guess.

Note Gunnevera's position at the 1:00 mark of this video. He's got only Good Samaritan beat as the field is nearing the far turn. He starts that big middle move at about that time and before they even finish rounding the far turn there's Gunnevera right there challenging for the lead.

 
Sharkey said:
Doesn't look like Enable is going to come over for the Breeders Cup afterall based off of what I'm reading. That's too bad. But at least we'll have some kind of betting race in the BC Turf race with her absence, though. Ulysses (Juddmonte International winner, 3rd in the Arc), Highland Reel (last years winner of race, 2 time G1 winner overseas this year), Cloth of Stars (2nd in the Arc, G1 winner overseas), and Decorated Knight (2 time G1 winner overseas including Irish Champion Stakes) are all listed as probables for the race, so that's got to be the way to go betting wise since the turf horses over here are pretty lacking. Beach Patrol has come around nicely in winning his last two G1 races, but the horse that finished 2nd to him both times, Fanciful Angel, was a non-factor in Europe before coming over as he routinely got trounced in G2 & G3 races over there nevermind in G1 races.
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No Cloth of Stars listed on the BC Turf pre-entries, but the other 3 Euros are all there along a with a couple/few other ones;

Beach Patrol
Bigger Picture
Bullards Alley
Cliffs of Moher
Decorated Knight
Fanciful Angel
Highland Reel
Hunt
Itsinthepost
Nezwaah (1st preference is the F&M Turf, though)
Oscar Performance
Sadler's Joy
Talismanic
Ulysses

Just took a quick peak at the Euros like Cliffs of Moher & Talismanic, and they look a cut or two below those other 3 Euros in the race based on their racing record. Actually I remember a couple of people I follow on twitter talking about Cliffs of Moher earlier in the year as one to watch out for, so maybe there is some quality to that one. Just hasn't shown it on the track yet at the top level. His connections have treated him as a good horse, though, with this set to be his 6th straight G1 race he's been entered in despite the lack of success he's shown at the level so far. I'll have to give this guy a good look by watching his races, though, as he's very likely going to be a huge longshot in the race. May be some trouble trips in there that contributed to some of those mediocre finishes.

On class and current form Ulysses does look like the most likely winner at this point in time, though. Over his last 4 races this year since July he won the G1 Eclipse beating top grass horses like Barney Roy and Decorated Knight in the process. Then finished 2nd to the super filly Enable next time out while finishing ahead of Highland Reel and others. Came back after that to win another G1 by taking the G1 Juddmonte pretty decisively again beating top grass horses like Barney Roy, Decorated Knight, as well as Churchill (who's entered in the Classic for some reason). Last time out he finished a good 3rd in The Arc (most prestigious and deepest turf race in the world as far as overall quality of the fields go*) behind Enable once again. Ulysses showed some ability to handle the firmer going last year when he finished an okay 4th in the BC Turf as a 3 year-old. But he's also a much better horse than he was last year, as well as in addition to this year's Turf field not being what last year's field was. Highland Reel is back, although he doesn't seem to be in top form based on his two most recent efforts. But there's no Found or Flintshire in this year's field either.

* According to Longines annual rankings of the best races in the world (regardless of surface) as measured by overall field quality, The Arc was the top rated race in the world in 2013, 3rd in 2014, and 1st again in 2015. Last year it slipped to 7th.

http://www.horseracingintfed.com/resources/LWBRR/Top-100-G1-Races_2013-2015.pdf
 
Need to find something to bet on after this 3 week break, and it looks like there's a couple of interesting stakes races going on this weekend involving horses that their connections thought were just below Breeders Cup level. The G2 Fayette at Keeneland looks interesting with horses like Neolithic, Honorable Duty, McCracken, Guiseppe the Great, etc., entered. Nice 7F sprint race going on at Belmont as well with the G3 Bold Ruler with horses like Divining Rod, Stallwalkin Dude, Tom's Ready, Awesome Banner, Mr Crow, etc., entered for that race.

I haven't compiled my numbers for these races yet, nor do I even know what the morning lines odds are. But taking a quick glance at the past performances my guess is that Honorable Duty is going to look like a top choice in the Fayette. Same quick glance at the Bold Ruler and it looks like a three horse race between Divining Rod, Stallwalkin Dude, and Seymourdini, who's taking a step up in class after absolutely trouncing lesser competition in his most recent races. I have to do some number crunching with these races, though, before thinking about how/what is worth playing.
 
Sharkey said:
And you hit that for almost $9,000, M? If so, wow. Huge congratulations to you. Great job. I've had a few tickets that hit for a grand or two over the years, but never anything close to that amount. That's fantastic.
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It was a decent horse, I noticed it's last 2 run write ups had inquiries and I thought maybe this thing is holding back for this.

It was very lucky bowman (who rides winx) fell off his horse who was about a $4 fav right at the stsrt and they scratched it which turned it into $88 I got lucky it was on fixed or it would of been $69.

I need to find the race for you though, at one point I'm like nooooooooooooo going to lose by a nose!


One thing lately in Australia and I've been telling everyone that bets on horses. ROUGHIES are winning the big races.
 
A round of Fosters on @Mga223 . Nice job my friend. A little bit of good luck never hurts anyone especially when it comes to scores like that. You're biggest hit ever as far as payouts go?

Also what's a "roughie" if I may ask? Longshots?
 
Sharkey said:
A round of Fosters on @Mga223 . Nice job my friend. A little bit of good luck never hurts anyone especially when it comes to scores like that. You're biggest hit ever as far as payouts go?

Also what's a "roughie" if I may ask? Longshots?
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Haha Yeap we call them roughies down under.
 
Finished my numbers this morning for both the G2 Fayette and the G3 Bold Ruler, and based on them it may be tough finding much value in each of those races baed on the (morning line odds).


G2 Fayette;

#5 Honorable Duty +4.7 (9/5)
#2 Neolithic +2.4 (2/1)
#6 McCracken +0.9 (4/1)
-----
#1 Guiseppe the Great -0.5 (15/1)
#4 The Player -1.5 (4/1)
#3 Fear the Cowboy -2.4 (15/1)
#7 Malibu Pro -3.3 (15/1)

I have a pretty clear top horse based on these numbers with Honorable Duty, so maybe I'll make a win bet on him despite not great odds. Little disappointed with the slightly negative number I came up with for Guiseppe the Great considering his likely odds. But I still have him as the top ranked longshot going in, so maybe worth a place/show wager. I've also cashed with him the only two times I used him, so luck has been with me there. Rounded out a big exacta for me in the Jim Dandy and then came through for me again last month with a show bet in the PA Derby when he got up for 3rd. Wished his number was just a touch stronger. Two days away I'm thinking something like this; Honorable Duty to win, Guiseppe the Great to place/show, and then maybe a straight exacta with those two. Maybe.


G3 Bold Ruler;

#9 Seymourdini +6.9 (3/1)
#11 Divining Rod +6.1 (7/2)
#7 Stallwalkin Dude +5.3 (4/1)
-----
#5 Tommy Macho +0.3 (10/1)
#6 Tom's Ready +0.2 (8/1)
#2 Awesome Banner +0.1 (15/1)
#1 Tale of S'avall -0.2 (12/1)
#10 Mr Crow -1.0 (5/1)
-----
#3 Ready for Rye -4.7 (20/1)
#8 Beasely -5.6 (20/1)
#4 Green Gratto -7.7 (30/1)

I have Seymourdini as the top ranked horse going in on my numbers, but he's a hard guy to trust considering his lack of proven class and that he's so injury ridden. Him needing a two month break from getting back on the workout tab after his last race is concerning. The only time he's ever comepted in graded stakes company he got trounced too when finishing 7th. But that was over a year ago, so not sure that matters much. But there definitely is a class question there with him regardless as he has never proven his ability (which he certainly has on some level) beyond allowance company. This guy feels like the classic "all or nothing" type horse to me. Either he romps again. Or he craps the bed and finishes off the board. Considering his lack of proven class, his soundness issues, the other early speed in the race with the #2, the #4 and #10, as well as him being the likely favourite, I think I'll look elsewhere and use the other two that are right behind him on my numbers who have proven that they are at least up to this class level with solid efforts in G1 and G2 races in the past. I'm thinking Divining Rod to win and then maybe a straight exacta with him over Stallwalkin Dude in 2nd. Or I could just box them in the exacta.
 
backing Lady Aurelia to beat Marsha, marshas trainer said today it didnt run the left handed bend too well where as lady aurelia will handle it fine

i like Mendelsohn if it runs the dirt, bred perfectly to like the dirt and shaped well in a second on champions day over here
 
gcoogan1 said:
backing Lady Aurelia to beat Marsha, marshas trainer said today it didnt run the left handed bend too well where as lady aurelia will handle it fine

i like Mendelsohn if it runs the dirt, bred perfectly to like the dirt and shaped well in a second on champions day over here
Click to expand...

I don't know anything about this Mendelsohn horse yet, G, but it's going to be a really tough task expecting any of these runners to get the better of Bolt d'Oro in the Juvenile. Is probably the single most likely winner out of all the BC races next weekend. But if someone can beat him and you land on the horse that does then you are going to get paid in a big way with that opinion for sure.
 
Mga223 said:
It was a decent horse, I noticed it's last 2 run write ups had inquiries and I thought maybe this thing is holding back for this.

It was very lucky bowman (who rides winx) fell off his horse who was about a $4 fav right at the stsrt and they scratched it which turned it into $88 I got lucky it was on fixed or it would of been $69.

I need to find the race for you though, at one point I'm like nooooooooooooo going to lose by a nose!


One thing lately in Australia and I've been telling everyone that bets on horses. ROUGHIES are winning the big races.
Click to expand...
I was at the Everest and I backed Bowman in the last! Cash back was closest thing I got to a win all day too
 
Brisnet has already released some early PP's for next week's Breeders Cup if anybody wants to get an early look at things;

https://downthestretchs.com/tag/free-past-performances/

I've only took a quick peak at the Classic, but I have a feeling I'm really going to like Collected in that race. Beat the probable Classic favourite in Arrogate last time out at this same Del Mar track and at this distance. He's also never been beaten on a dry & fast dirt track as he's 8 for 8 under those conditions. I'm not going to crunch the numbers until after the post draw, but he's either going to be the top ranked horse going in on those or just barely behind Gun Runner. Yet he should be at least double, maybe triple the value when it comes to what the odds show.
 
minowasmullet said:
I was at the Everest and I backed Bowman in the last! Cash back was closest thing I got to a win all day too
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That's it mate, yea was a rough day until then, I threw small money on fast cash after.

Bowman was terrible all day.
 
Mga223 said:
That's it mate, yea was a rough day until then, I threw small money on fast cash after.

Bowman was terrible all day.
Click to expand...
You having a crack at the Manikato tonight? Im on Chautauqua I think the track beat him last time so watch him prove me wrong and run 4th again
 
minowasmullet said:
You having a crack at the Manikato tonight? Im on Chautauqua I think the track beat him last time so watch him prove me wrong and run 4th again
Click to expand...
Im racking up a bunch of bonus bets for the next few weeks.

Not bad odds, don't see the fav winning tbh.

English or Speith as a roughie for me
 
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