Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

While the rest of these scrubs were struggling to get out of their straw beds this morning Hence was out there putting the work in and in the process claiming that Churchill Downs track as his own;

 

[Sharkey]

Animal Kingdon's winning profile using the stuff we've come up with while going into the 2011 Derby, which, like this year, was considered a field on the weaker side;

Animal Kingdom: 84, 86.5, 95.5 (101) * 8 3/4, 7, 3 1/2 (T, T, T) * 1st last race * 24.2 feet

Seem familiar?

Hence: 80.5, 83.5, 98 (93) * 9 3/4, 7, 3 (P, T, T) * 1st last race * 24.3 feet

Animal Kingdom entered the Derby having 1 race at a mile and 3 races that were over a mile and had build up a foundation to handle the 10F Derby distance. Hence will also be entering the Derby after having 1 race at a mile and 4 other races that were over a mile thus he's also built a foundation to handle the 10F.

 

[Sharkey]

Interesting list of probables for the Arkansas Derby this Saturday;

Rockin Rudy*, Classic Empire, Lookin At Lee, Petrov, Malagacy, Silver Dust, Untrapped, and Sonneteer.

* Rockin Rudy is a pure speedball who's ran three races so far on the early lead and the slowest he's ran the opening half mile in is 45 2/5ths. His other two races saw him run the half mile in sub 44 seconds. Both Malagacy and Classic Empire chances to win could be hurt in a big way if they get caught up trying to keep up him that horse in the early going. Petrov may get hurt by it too if he sits too close. Race might set up very well for one of the four off the pace types if so.

 

[Sharkey]

Not that I'd ever bet this horse in the Derby since he's going to have a terrible pattern going in and his late race stride length in the Wood was only 22.1 feet. But here's an interesting (and concerning for his backers) pattern to Irish War Cry's race and workout history;

He raced Nov 11th of last year and didn't have a workout again til Dec 2nd. 3 weeks later. After a total of 4 workouts between races he raced again on Dec 31st of last year and didn't have a workout til Jan 22nd. Again, 3 weeks later. He had 2 workouts leading into his Feb 4th race and didn't have another workout til Feb 25th. Yep, 3 weeks. That's the only workout he had before his race on Mar 4th and after that race he didn't have another workout til March 25th. See a pattern here? 3 weeks. He got 2 workouts in before racing this past weekend in the Wood, but what comes after that? A workout sometime at the very end of April or the very beginning of May, which means he's going to enter the Derby off of only 1 workout. That's bad news by itself for any Derby contender, but the double whammy is that Irish War Cry raced one other time after having only 1 workout before the race. The result? He finished up the track and beaten by 21 lengths in the Fountain of Youth. Based simply on how much time this guy needs after a race before he can hit the track again it's pretty obvious that racing takes it's toll on him way more than it should. Good luck to anybody backing this guy on Derby day.

 

[Sharkey]

Animal Kingdon's winning profile using the stuff we've come up with while going into the 2011 Derby, which, like this year, was considered a field on the weaker side;

Animal Kingdom: 84, 86.5, 95.5 (101) * 8 3/4, 7, 3 1/2 (T, T, T) * 1st last race * 24.2 feet

Seem familiar?

Hence: 80.5, 83.5, 98 (93) * 9 3/4, 7, 3 (P, T, T) * 1st last race * 24.3 feet

Animal Kingdom entered the Derby having 1 race at a mile and 3 races that were over a mile and had build up a foundation to handle the 10F Derby distance. Hence will also be entering the Derby after having 1 race at a mile and 4 other races that were over a mile thus he's also built a foundation to handle the 10F.

This comparison here between Animal Kingdom and Hence also speaks to me because 2011 was actually the last time I made a profit in the Derby, and it was a very good one at that. I have to bet Hence come Derby time based on that.

With this mention of foundation I may also add another category along those lines once the Derby field is set. If I'm remembering right there were only two horses who won the Derby in recent decades that went on to win the Derby without having at least 3 races that were over a mile in length beforehand. Big Brown and I'll Have Another I do believe. But we'll see what the field looks like this year. If there's only a few horses in the field that don't fit that angle then there's really no point of adding it, although I guess it could be looked at as a negative (e.g. a horse like Malagcy if he enters) if a horse doesn't meet those standards. I may try to figure out some other categories as well that I think may have some kind of value in helping us structure some tickets. There's still a long time to go before the Derby. We'll see.

 

[Sharkey]

How many horses do you see that have the ability to overcome not only nearly falling down out of the gate, but also, well, whatever the hell happened to this guy as he hit the 1/8th pole?

18:00 mark;

 

[BluntTrauma21]

@Sharkey what do you look for when you're watching a horse run on days or hours prior to a race? I've heard you mention if the ears are perked up when they're running then that's a good sign, you called a horse finishing show at long odds by just seeing him walk/prance around the paddock area right before the race, etc.

Just wondering like how I watch tape on fights and look for certain things, what do you look for when watching a horse run in practice and pp's to cap it?

 

[Sharkey]

@Sharkey what do you look for when you're watching a horse run on days or hours prior to a race? I've heard you mention if the ears are perked up when they're running then that's a good sign, you called a horse finishing show at long odds by just seeing him walk/prance around the paddock area right before the race, etc.

Just wondering like how I watch tape on fights and look for certain things, what do you look for when watching a horse run in practice and pp's to cap it?

In workouts and gallops I'm looking for a few things, Blunt, and yeah, the perked ears is one of the things. That's showing a horse that is both attentive to the rider and also a horse that would be willing to do more in the workout if the rider asked him to do more. You want a horse that's showing good energy without being over energetic. A horse that responds to it's rider in a workout is always a great sign, whether it's when a horse digs down and quickens when he gets a shove or two on the back of the neck by it's rider, when the horse is continuing to run in the gallop out portion of a workout if asked, or after the workout is over he's responding immediately to a rider who wants it to stop running. Basically you want to see controlled energy when a horse works out, a strong finish to the workout (and gallop out after the wire if asked), and the horse and rider working as one. Of course, the smoother a horse looks out there the better.

For those simple controlled gallops before a race, you like to see a horse with a coiled up look to him. Same thing in the post parade that takes place a few minutes before a race when the horses go past the screen (that's very rare, though, but this is what you refered to with that show horse). That coiled up look consists of a horse with it's head down, neck bowed, but up on it's toes especially on the hind end which will likely be up in the air a little. A lot of horses are going to be asked to gallop like that leading up to the race, but like with a workout, the more willingness they show doing it and doing what the rider asks the better. If you see a horse like that doing it in the post parade a few minutes before the race then that's a horse that is doing it willingly as the reins will be loose at that time. He's all coiled up and ready to spring. Kind of looks like a cat who's getting ready to pounce. They have a look to them that says they are ready to burst.

Here, I'll give you a quick example of that coiled up look by using an old friend of ours. Seeing horses gallop like this are pretty common because it's what's being asked of them with a tight rein. But if they look like this in the post parade then take note because this look is not that common at all and horses with this look in the post parade almost always run better than what their odds indicate;

 

[Sharkey]

I should probably mention one or two other things you can look for if you want to get a last minute bet in based on the post parade, Blunt, since that coiled up look is so rare. It's not really something you can work with if you almost never see it right? But a couple of other things you can look for in the post parade is a horse that is up on it's toes yet the rest of it's body is both controlled and relaxed with little movement besides the horse just being up on it's toes. That's a good sign. A horse who's flat footed in the post parade not necessarily so, especially if the horse is flat footed and at the same time is trying to tug away from his lead pony's rider who has a hold of him. A dappled bum, of course, is always a good sign of a healthy horse who may be in peak condition. A rounded belly with no ribs that are sticking out or no excess fat in the area. That nice, healthy glow to a horse's coat that's not due to sweat is always a good sign (a dull coat obviously the opposite) A horse showing neck sweat in the post parade is usually a sign of a nervous horse who may not want to be in those surroundings at the time. Perked ears, of course. A horse who has his ears pinned backed in the post parade is likely agitated, and again, would rather not be there. What else? If you see a horse with some racing experience acting like he doesn't want to be there then it's probably something beyond just being nervous or agitated because he should know the drill by now. He could be a little sore or a little sick or something. Also pay attention to longshots that have their mane braided and have some other positive looks about them in the post parade. It's one of my favourite visual angles with the logic being that the connections of the horse had the groom take the time to braid the horse's mane with the expectations being that there was a good chance they'd get their picture taken after the race. Trainers generally have a good idea what they are working with going into any given race, and they know what the intention of the race is for the horse. They know their horse's chances better than the public who handicap the races. So if you see braided horse then take note. They're not going to bother taking the time to pretty up a 20/1 longshot unless they think it's chances are much better than that, and you'd be surprised how profitable such a simple angle can be.

 

[Sharkey]

@BluntTrauma21

Using our buddy Creator again as an example, here's another way you can judge a horse by it's ears in the races themselves. Watch Creator's ears in the short piece of video that's shown after the race was done, and just before the TVG advertisement came up;



Ears pricked straight up and down if not slightly forward. That's a horse that's signalling to his rider that there's still more in the tank and he'd be willing to do more running if the rider asked it of him. The horse is just waiting for the command to do so. If you watch a horse after a race that, while he may have his ears up a little, if they're leaning backwards then that's a horse who's pretty much saying "I did enough today, thanks" and really doesn't want to do any more. If watching video of these Derby runners' prep races before the Derby itself, that's one of the signs you can use that'll help you decide who can handle the 10F distance.

 

[Sharkey]

Always Dreaming's updated thorograph sheet;

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Alway.pdf

So he'll be going into the Derby on a X, X, T pattern with his latest race being a big new top.

Not only does Always Dreaming's thorograph sheet point to a regression in his next race on it's own due to the big new top after an X race, but check out the following stat. I've been doing some research on Todd Pletcher's history with Derby runners, seeing where they ran their last prep, how they did in the Derby itself and all that. But anyways, I found that Pletcher has sent 9 horses to the Derby after having run their final prep in Floriday, and every single one of them regressed in the Derby. In fact 6 of them ran thorograph X races in the Derby. No new tops in the Derby. No new pairs. Just 3 off races and then 6 that were X races. Very interested. And it's not like these horses were considered no-hopers either as 6 of them went off at odds of 11/1 or lower including three that were among the top 3 betting choices. Pletcher's best finish after prepping in Florida was 6th with 7 of the 9 having finished in the back half of the Derby field. Whether prepping for the Derby or not, Pletcher does have a well known history of getting horses to run big races down in Florida and then struggling elsewhere. But 6 of his 9 runners producing X races in the Derby after prepping in Florida in pretty staggering.

 

[Sharkey]

Forgive me for adding some more geeky numbers stuff, but I've been looking into the thorograph patterns more and found what I think is some interesting stuff I think. Hopefully shows what a potentially powerful tool that can be for helping you pick a Derby winner this year.

Since 2004 there's been 249 runners that have entered the Derby gates. Out of those 249, 119 of them came into the Derby on one of the positive two race thorograph patterns we've already talked about (T,P), (P,P), (T,T), and (T,P). 130 of them came into the Derby on one of the 12 negative patterns with a regressive race in one of their last two races thus with an O or X included.

- Out of the 119 that came into the Derby on one of the four positive patterns, 22 of them ran a new T in the Derby (18.5%), 30 were able to run a P to their previous top (25.2%), 20 of them ran an O race (16.8%), and 47 of them ran an X race (39.5%)

- Out of the 130 that came into the Derby on a negative pattern with having an O or X race in their last two, only 7 of them ran a new T in the Derby (5.4%), 20 of them were able to run a P to their previous top (15.4%), 36 ran an O race (27.7%), and 67 ran an X race (51.5%)

This shows how hard it is for a horse to run the best race of it's life in the Derby, but if a horse is going to do it he's more than three times more likely (18.5% to 5.4%) to do it on a positive thorograph pattern than he is if he was on a negative pattern with an O or X race leading up to the Derby. A horse on a positive pattern is also more than twice as likely (43.7% to 20.8%) to run either a new T or a P in the Derby than a horse on a negative pattern

To go back to a post I made on page 1 of this thread last year and to update it based on the results of the 2016 Derby where all three top 3 finishers had the positive patterns going in;

The top 3 finishers of the Derby from 1997 on. But when added up (1st, 2nd, 3rd)

P, T - (6, 6, 1 record)
P, P - (5, 4, 5)
T, T - (3, 2, 5)
T, P - (2, 4, 1)
T, O - (3, 0, 1)
O, P - (0, 1, 3)
O, O - (1, 0, 1)
O, T - (0, 1, 1)
T, X - (0, 1, 1)
X, T - (0, 0, 1)

Those with a (P, O), (P, X), (O, X), (X, O), (X, P) or (X, X) pattern in their final two prep races didn't produce a single top 3 finisher in the Derby over those 20 years.

Those on a positive pattern had a combined record of 16 wins, 16 seconds and 12 thirds. Those on a negative pattern had a combined record of 4 wins, 3 seconds, and 8 thirds. Those on a positive pattern going in won the Derby four times as often in that span, and finished inside the trifecta about three times as much.

Last night I only checked back to 2004, but there were a slight bit more who entered the Derby on a negative pattern as opposed to a positive one. But if we were being generous to the negative side and said it was 50/50 going back to 1997 we can see what kind of an impact value has compared to a negative pattern. Those on a positive thorograph pattern going in tend to run much better and are more successful in finishing well.

The moral of this whole story is is that if you have to make excuses for a horse's performance in one of his most recent races then you're best to look elsewhere. Not that they can't run well in the Derby. It's just a lot less likely that they do than a horse that nobody has to make excuses for going in.

 

[Sharkey]

Oh, I forgot to add something. Since 2004 there's been 51 Derby runners who came into the race after having ran an X race in one of their last two preps. Only 1 was able to run a new top (T) in the Derby itself. 42 of them (82.3%) ran another X race in the Derby or an O race. X's are bad.

 

[Sharkey]

Horses like Always Dreaming, Irish War Cry, Gunnevera, Tapwrit, Classic Empire, and Gormley are some of the horses who are going to be entering the Derby after an X race in one of their final two preps and they are all going to get various degress of wagering support come Derby time. Shit, half the Derby field might be going into the race after a recent X race, so that can only up the chances that one of them run well enough to finish in the top 3. If you matched 18 one legged men against 2 men that have both of their legs one of those one legged men is going to finish 3rd right? Fuck I don't know. I let others bet the a one legged man to finish in 1st though.

 

[timmyclax22]

@Sharkey you are insane, I love it!

 

[Sharkey]

@Sharkey you are insane, I love it!

I am insane ain't I? I mean, who the hell looks up shit like this for something that is going to last but 2 friggin minutes and is still a few weeks away? Yeah, I must be insane. But you know what? I love it too, Timmy.

 

[timmyclax22]

I am insane ain't I? I mean, who the hell looks up shit like this for something that is going to last but 2 friggin minutes and is still a few weeks away? Yeah, I must be insane. But you know what? I love it too, Timmy.

Thanks again for providing all of us with some fun on a sport that we probably wouldn't do much research on.

 

[Sharkey]

Thanks again for providing all of us with some fun on a sport that we probably wouldn't do much research on.

Cheers Timmy. It's all about cashing a few tickets on the Derby and I'll be using these little tidbits of information myself when the time come. If others can use some of it as well to help them make some picks then all the better. I've gambled on most North American sports in my life and I found that horse racing is the best for me just because of the amount of variables that goes into making your picks and how the payoffs can be pretty outstanding if you end up right in your analysis. Especially in a race like the Derby where there's the potential to make a 5 or even 6 figure payday even for those on a limited budget. If a few hours of research helps me improve my chances to hit something like that then I'm more than willing to do it. Plus, I just like the challenge of the game even though I know I'm going to be wrong more often than I'm going to be right.

 

[Sharkey]

The post positions and morning line odds for the G1 Arkansas Derby;

1 - Rockin Rudy - 12/1
2 - Classic Empire - 8/5
3 - Silver Dust - 20/1
4 - Petrov - 12/1
5 - Grandpa's Dream - 30/1
6 - Lookin At Lee - 15/1
7 - Sonneteer - 15/1
8 - Rowdy the Warrior - 30/1
9 - Untrapped - 6/1
10 - One Dreamy Dude - 50/1
11 - Conquest Mo Money - 15/1
12 - Malagacy - 2/1

What a great draw for any of the closers who signed up for this race. You have the speeball in Rockin Rudy drawing the #1 post, so you know he's going to go from the gate. Not that I would expect anything less regardless of post. But the #1 hole basically assures it now. Malagacy, who himself shows early speed in his races drew on the outside, so he's going to have to go early to try to get position before they eneter the 1st turn. The headcase that is Classic Empire, who likes to be up close early himself, drew right besides the speedball to his inside and may be on go at the start regardless of what his rider wants of him. Conquest Mo Money may show early speed himself drawing from outside, but he sat back a little in the Sunland Derby and my guess that that is the plan for this race as well.

Interesting race. Hopefully @BluntTrauma21 and his 2000% profit margin in this race historically can lead us down the right path.

As always, past performances can be found here;

https://downthestretchs.com/tag/free-past-performances/

 

[BluntTrauma21]

In workouts and gallops I'm looking for a few things, Blunt, and yeah, the perked ears is one of the things. That's showing a horse that is both attentive to the rider and also a horse that would be willing to do more in the workout if the rider asked him to do more. You want a horse that's showing good energy without being over energetic. A horse that responds to it's rider in a workout is always a great sign, whether it's when a horse digs down and quickens when he gets a shove or two on the back of the neck by it's rider, when the horse is continuing to run in the gallop out portion of a workout if asked, or after the workout is over he's responding immediately to a rider who wants it to stop running. Basically you want to see controlled energy when a horse works out, a strong finish to the workout (and gallop out after the wire if asked), and the horse and rider working as one. Of course, the smoother a horse looks out there the better.

For those simple controlled gallops before a race, you like to see a horse with a coiled up look to him. Same thing in the post parade that takes place a few minutes before a race when the horses go past the screen (that's very rare, though, but this is what you refered to with that show horse). That coiled up look consists of a horse with it's head down, neck bowed, but up on it's toes especially on the hind end which will likely be up in the air a little. A lot of horses are going to be asked to gallop like that leading up to the race, but like with a workout, the more willingness they show doing it and doing what the rider asks the better. If you see a horse like that doing it in the post parade a few minutes before the race then that's a horse that is doing it willingly as the reins will be loose at that time. He's all coiled up and ready to spring. Kind of looks like a cat who's getting ready to pounce. They have a look to them that says they are ready to burst.

Here, I'll give you a quick example of that coiled up look by using an old friend of ours. Seeing horses gallop like this are pretty common because it's what's being asked of them with a tight rein. But if they look like this in the post parade then take note because this look is not that common at all and horses with this look in the post parade almost always run better than what their odds indicate;

I don't mean to kiss too much ass here, but I think it's important that you realize just how much I and I'm sure most others itt learn from you, man. I've made and read ALOT of posts on this site and this is one of my favorites, as you are also one of my favorite posters.

This is a knowledgeable, interesting, and well thought out post and I'm very appreciative of you taking your time to explain these types of things to a relative newbie with horses like I am. No condescension or anything just in depth info that exactly answers the questions I was wondering. Thank you for taking time to explain things and in the detail in which you do it (and give our bud Creator a shout in the same post?!?!?!) Can't beat that.

You're a good guy, I for one think you are the nicest shark of all time, although I've heard whale sharks are supposedly very nice as well, I doubt one could give me such high level insight on horse racing.

Anyway enough of my ass kissing, when I read this post last night I was really impressed, but I had a few drinks in me and decided to wait till today to respond but got busy and forgot. Just wanted to let you know how much you've taught me over (is it years now?) and how I and I'm sure the other regs here as well.

Thanks my friend, I'm genuinely interested in this sport and you've been nothing but cool to me even if I ask stupid shit. Thank you.