Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Hodge23]

@Sharkey , Can i ask why your leaning towards Highland Reel over Found? Im fairly torn between the 2. Is it down to the speed angle, e.g. Highland Reel will likely lead and Found will sit back which, if there is a pace bias will favour HR?
Found has better form and won this last year but the pace thing worries me. Cheers

Edit: Also HR will love the fast ground, though I'm not sure it'll inconvenience Found either

 

[gcoogan1]

i like highland reel over found due to amount of races found has had of late
also going with limato

Looking at Roly Poly and good samaritan also

tailed you on syndergaard

 

[Hodge23]

i like highland reel over found due to amount of races found has had of late
also going with limato

Looking at Roly Poly and good samaritan also

tailed you on syndergaard

Found ran the same 3 races last year and she seemed to thrive on her racing, but i do agree in that you never know when they might have gone over the top. Founds price is putting me off a bit as well, id want bigger than 2/1.

Limato has a huge chance imo. Ive gone for hydrangea in the Roly Poly race. Andd I've also tailed on Syndergaard.

 

[Hodge23]

So this week I've added

5Pts Dortmund (Dirt Mile) @ 11/10 - Best form in the race by far, took the 11/10 now as most places were 5/6, 10/11 etc.

2Pts E/W Hydrangea (Juv Fillies Turf) @ 6/1 - Interesting race this, with the top 4 seemingly closely matched. Cant have spain burg as favourite though, she brings G2 form while the others all have G1 and i don't rate that G2 race as particularly good either. Roly Poly has never raced over 6F, although pedigree says she should get it, it has to be a minor mark against her. Intricately and Hydrangea look the pair for me, they have both beaten each other before and I have gone hydrangea by virtue of the larger price and the fact she has raced over this trip and ground before. Ryan Moore rides Roly Poly but I'm fairly sure this is just due to the fact Heffernan has ridden Hydrangea in 4/6 races and Moore has never ridden her in a race.

1Pt Syndergaard (Juvenile) @ 6/1 - Tailed Sharkey

2Pts Lord Nelson (Dirt Sprint) @ 3/1 - Liked the look of this one having had a quick look at form, plus Sharkey seemed to think the price was good in an earlier post so took 3/1 now.

Also eyeing Suedois in the turf sprint @ 10/1

 

[Sharkey]

@Sharkey , Can i ask why your leaning towards Highland Reel over Found? Im fairly torn between the 2. Is it down to the speed angle, e.g. Highland Reel will likely lead and Found will sit back which, if there is a pace bias will favour HR?
Found has better form and won this last year but the pace thing worries me. Cheers

Edit: Also HR will love the fast ground, though I'm not sure it'll inconvenience Found either

I think one of the main reasons is that it comes down to for me is the price, Hodge. I expect a good chunk of the public to see this as a two horse race between Flintshire and Found, who I envision are both bet down to the 2/1 range (if not a little lower for one of them) from their morning lines. If that's the case then I can see Highland Reel drifting up to the 6/1 range (or better), which I think represents some very good value. Flintshire is getting bet based on his US form this year and Found will get bet as the defending champion of the race, as well as being the Arc champion. I see Highland Reel getting ignored some by the public.

Like you, I've also read that Highland Reel would relish the firm ground. I also don't see any pace at all in this race, which of course will be beneficial to Highland Reel. There's not a single one of his competitors in the race where you can say "he'll be on the lead". The #3 may be up there. The #5 possibly as well. But any horse in the field who has found themselves on/near the lead in their past are doing so with pace being set with apx 50 second half miles. With so little pace in it, I think there's a good chance Highland Reel gets the run of the race.

 

[Sharkey]

I don't know about you guys, but that F&M Sprint is another race that is looking like it could lack pace up front. Or at least pace from any quality speed. Looks like the #7 Gloryzapper will be the pace setter, but she seams like she's cheap speed against this class of horses therefore I think this race sets up great for Carina Mia (7/2 ML) to sit an outside stalking trip behind the #7 before pouncing late in the running. 7/2 might be a pipe dream, but this girl has been good to me in the past and I like her in this race as well. Because of the pace projection and considering the track, I could also see myself using the #9 Paulassilverlining (10/1 ML) to round out the exacta.

Update;

Classic - Chrome over Melatonin in the exacta with a little Arrogate thrown in (1st to 3rd) for the tris
Turf - Highland Reel
Juvenile - Syndergaard
Sprint - Lord Nelson if he's close to ML odds
Dirt Mile - Dortmund over Tamarkuz in exacta with the latter to place? Maybe
Mile - Ironicus, Limato, or maybe both
Turf Sprint - Ambitious Brew maybe
Distaff - Songbird even if she's an underlay
F&M Sprint - Carnia Mia (with perhaps Paulassilverlining rounding out exacta)

 

[Sharkey]

Gun Runner and Tom's Ready are the only two 3 year-olds left from this year's prep season and the Derby itself that are competing in this year's Breeders Cup. That's unfortunate. But in a strange twist those are really the two horses that launched this thread way back in March when @BluntTrauma21 started discussing the ponies earlier this year. The first race we looked at and bet together was the Louisiana Derby. We singled out Gun Runner as the likely winner and then singled out Tom's Ready as the longshot to play in that race for exotics. The finished 1st and 2nd in that race. I think it would be so fucking cool if they did so again in the Dirt Mile even though it's unlikely. But it's not completely out of the realm of possibility I don't think, and I think I may make a small $5 exacta play on them finishing there again just for sentimental purposes. Why the hell not.

 

[Sharkey]

I started having second thoughts about betting Tamarkuz last night anyway after seeing what his trainer's (Kiaran McLaughlin) record was when shipping out to California. I don't remember the exact record off hand, but it was pretty awful to say the least. Like a 6% winning percentage or something very low like that. Tamarkuz will be at pretty long odds still, is one of the classier horses in the field, and it does seem like he's rounding back into the form he showed early last year with a couple of good 2nd place finishes. But his trainer's record does give me a some pause. I'm still likely to use him, though, maybe not as heavy.

 

[Sharkey]

I posted this video already, but at the 2:05 Flintshire came upon Highland Reel, looked him in the eye and issued the challenge. Highland Reel's response was "Okay, I'm ready for this. Let's see what you got.", and then proceeded to dust him off to the point where Flintshire was waving the white flag well before they even hit the line;



The horse that got the worst of it there will be 2/1. The one that got the best of it will be 5/1 or 6/1 I'm thinking.

 

[Sharkey]

I have an idea on how I'll be playing 9 of the 13 Breeders Cup races. Still have 4 more to go; Juvenile Fillies, F&M Turf, Juvenile Turf, and Juvenile Fillies Turf. I doubt I'm going to have something on all 4 of those races (still only Wednesday, though, so maybe I will), so I might look to see which one (or two perhaps) of those 4 seem the most wide open and then try to get a 15/1 or higher longshot home in it. I have some chalky picks already. Then some decent prices in the 5/1 to 10/1 range. But nothing at really long odds so far. We're going to see a shocker or two this weekend I'm sure, so I'd like to try my best to be on one or two of those types with a chance to cash at long odds.

 

[Hodge23]

I think one of the main reasons is that it comes down to for me is the price, Hodge. I expect a good chunk of the public to see this as a two horse race between Flintshire and Found, who I envision are both bet down to the 2/1 range (if not a little lower for one of them) from their morning lines. If that's the case then I can see Highland Reel drifting up to the 6/1 range (or better), which I think represents some very good value. Flintshire is getting bet based on his US form this year and Found will get bet as the defending champion of the race, as well as being the Arc champion. I see Highland Reel getting ignored some by the public.

Like you, I've also read that Highland Reel would relish the firm ground. I also don't see any pace at all in this race, which of course will be beneficial to Highland Reel. There's not a single one of his competitors in the race where you can say "he'll be on the lead". The #3 may be up there. The #5 possibly as well. But any horse in the field who has found themselves on/near the lead in their past are doing so with pace being set with apx 50 second half miles. With so little pace in it, I think there's a good chance Highland Reel gets the run of the race.

Yeah I'm definitely with you if Highland Reel does drift to 5 or 6/1. At the moment he's 7/2 here which is skinnier than ideal but like you say come saturday he's the most likely drifter.

I posted this video already, but at the 2:05 Flintshire came upon Highland Reel, looked him in the eye and issued the challenge. Highland Reel's response was "Okay, I'm ready for this. Let's see what you got.", and then proceeded to dust him off to the point where Flintshire was waving the white flag well before they even hit the line;



The horse that got the worst of it there will be 2/1. The one that got the best of it will be 5/1 or 6/1 I'm thinking.

Yep he's a really tough horse, does a lot of travelling and runs in all the big races, yet hardly ever has a bad race - great attitude. The more i think about it the more I would love to play him E/W @ 5/1 + as he's almost certainly going to be top 3 so it would be a bet to nothing.

 

[Sharkey]

Yeah I'm definitely with you if Highland Reel does drift to 5 or 6/1. At the moment he's 7/2 here which is skinnier than ideal but like you say come saturday he's the most likely drifter.



Yep he's a really tough horse, does a lot of travelling and runs in all the big races, yet hardly ever has a bad race - great attitude. The more i think about it the more I would love to play him E/W @ 5/1 + as he's almost certainly going to be top 3 so it would be a bet to nothing.

I'm a big fan of horses who show those types of responses when it comes to the little one-on-one races within the larger race. Especially when it comes against a top quality horse like Flintshire.

 

[Hodge23]

Fillies & Mares Turf is a really hard race to read.
Seventh Heaven is super talented but i really don't think 10f is her bag, ideally she would want 12f. On the other hand she will absolutely relish the fast ground.
Queens Trust has a piece of 10f form on fast ground thats as good or better than anything else in the race, being just over a length behind the top 3yo filly Minding. I think the consensus though was Minding was below her best that day, and she has been slammed by seventh heaven albeit over 12f.
Then theres Lady Eli that i don't know too much about, but her form reads very well, seems like these are her ideal conditions.
At a bigger price i like Nuovo Record, the japanese mare. She has pieces of form that entitle her to go close here.

 

[Sharkey]

Looks like you guys have already settled on some picks for the Juvenile Fillies Turf, so I'm not going to try to beat you guys on that race with a bomber at long odds. The Juvenile Fillies on the dirt looks like it could the opportunity I'm looking for when it comes to a bomber, though. Looks wide open on paper, and none of the lower priced horses really look all that good anyways. The #6 Champagne Room may be the bet for me at 20/1. Her PP's says she likes to run just off the lead, which is beneficail at this track, and her Brisnet speed figures are right there with all of them save for the one 100 that one of the horses got, which could be an anomoly. I'm going to look at her more by watching some videos and looking to see what the other figures say. Might be my longshot option for the weekend in a race that doesn't appear to have a single standout.

 

[Sharkey]

Fillies & Mares Turf is a really hard race to read.
Seventh Heaven is super talented but i really don't think 10f is her bag, ideally she would want 12f. On the other hand she will absolutely relish the fast ground.
Queens Trust has a piece of 10f form on fast ground thats as good or better than anything else in the race, being just over a length behind the top 3yo filly Minding. I think the consensus though was Minding was below her best that day, and she has been slammed by seventh heaven albeit over 12f.
Then theres Lady Eli that i don't know too much about, but her form reads very well, seems like these are her ideal conditions.
At a bigger price i like Nuovo Record, the japanese mare. She has pieces of form that entitle her to go close here.

Lady Eli is going to be bet way down, my friend. Not anywhere close to her 5/2 morning line by post time. Probably closer to even odds with potential to be odds-on. She's going to be the sentimental favourite during the whole weekend just because of what she went through last year when she got really sick with laminitis after stepping on a nail. She was a tremendous runner as a 2 year-old and into her 3 year-old campaign, though. One of the best on the grass for her age in quite some time and I was a big fan of hers back then. It's impressive that she's been able to come back at all nevermind to run as well as she has in her last two starts. But in my opinion, she's not quite the same horse she was before her illness, and because of her story, she's also likely to be the biggest underlay for the whole weekend. She could win, but I think us horse players have to try to beat her in this spot, which I'm likely going to do once I start looking at that race more in depth. That's if don't let my heart get the best of me since her winning would make for a great story.

 

[Hodge23]

Damn just realised i missed half a page of posts where you discussed the Turf & Mile @Sharkey. Answered some of the questions i had earlier if id just looked there haha, my bad.

Added 2Pts Carina Mia @ 7/2, so now have bets in 8 of the 13 races. Will probably end up being 13/13 though, have to have a bet in every race at this time of year!

 

[Sharkey]

Damn just realised i missed half a page of posts where you discussed the Turf & Mile @Sharkey. Answered some of the questions i had earlier if id just looked there haha, my bad.

Added 2Pts Carina Mia @ 7/2, so now have bets in 8 of the 13 races. Will probably end up being 13/13 though, have to have a bet in every race at this time of year!

Ah, it's all good. I'd be skipping through a lot of stuff I posted too just because I tend to ramble on at times. One of the reasons why I've been updating all my picks in some posts. Keeps it short and simple that way you guys don't have to read through all the other stuff to find how I'm playing these things.

And yeah, I think I'll be right there with you in playing all 13 of these races come Friday. It's too much fun trying to figure out all these separate puzzles and coming up with opinions.

 

[Sharkey]

I finished looking at the Juvenile Fillies (videos, DRF PP's etc), and I have to say that none of these girls impress me much save for maybe the #12 American Gal who's 6/1 on the morning line. The outside post isn't ideal, but she looks like the best horse in the field on paper and on video, and also has a running style that will see her near the front. Save for the one horse who produced a 100 Brisnet and 103 BSF (by the #7 which came in the slop...huge jump up in numbers from what she did previously), she also has the best speed figures in the field. I don't know if I'll get 6/1 on her because she's a Baffert trainee. But I should get a pretty decent price on her.

That 20/1 shot I mentioned above, the #6 Champagne Room looks okay as an option as well. Her two best races are only slightly behind American Gal on both the Brisnet and BSF figures (about 4 pts or 2 lengths on average factoring all of them). She's also raced against a higher class of fields than the #12 has as well. Champagne Room finished ahead of the 9/2 ML favourite, Noted and Quoted, two races back and by a pretty big margin too when I thought thew shape of the race should have favoured Noted and Quoted's running style. They reversed results next time out, although I think Champagne Room had all the excuses in that race with her being trapped inside and steadied not once, but twice as they went around the first turn. She got quite rank after that and fought the jockey the whole way down the backstretch. At 20/1 I'm more than willing to draw a line through that race, and if doing so, she fits about as well as anybody in this race save for maybe American Gal. Drawing mid field should help Champagne Room avoid the trouble she found last time out and she should sit a nice stalking position outside/behind the horses breaking from the #1 and #2 posts with the #1 looking quite cheap.

So yeah, the #12 American Gal (6/1) and the #6 Champagne Room (20/1) look like the two horses worth playing to me in the Juvenile Fillies race, although I'm not exactly sure how I'll play them yet.

 

[Sharkey]

Update;

Classic - Chrome over Melatonin in the exacta with a little Arrogate thrown in (1st to 3rd) for the tris
Turf - Highland Reel
Juvenile - Syndergaard
Sprint - Lord Nelson if he's close to ML odds
Dirt Mile - Dortmund over Tamarkuz in exacta with the latter to place? Maybe
Mile - Ironicus, Limato, or maybe both
Turf Sprint - Ambitious Brew maybe
Distaff - Songbird even if she's an underlay
F&M Sprint - Carina Mia (with perhaps Paulassilverlining rounding out exacta)
Juvenile Fillies - American Gal and Champagne Room

That's 10 so far.

 

[Sharkey]

I may just tail whatever you guys come up with in the other three races just because they're all on the turf and are filled with Euros. I eventually have to start putting some focus on bet structuring with some of these races, which is half the battle, and something that I have always needed improvement on. Cashing at least a little something when I have been "almost right" has always been an issue with me.