Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[t6p]

Hell yeah. An exacta box it will be for me too. And win bets. Don't forget those, Blunt. Odds should be plenty good enough on both the way the field is shaping up. Thinking 8/1 or 10/1 range for each. These two tick all the boxes, plus are the two best stamina horses in the field as well, which is going to be a big factor at this 10F distance and on this track. And the shape of the race should fit both of them really well too considering there should be at least a few early speed types that enter the gates (Laoban, American Freedom, Gift Box, Connect, etc). To me, all signs are pointing towards these two. Oh, and Creator got dem dapples! Not just dapples, but dapples upon his dapples.

The Travers draw is tomorrow by the way. We'll be able to see if there's a good 3rd option for the trifecta at that point. Hoping they do decide to enter My Man Sam. If he does manage to come in 3rd behind those other two or splits them by coming in 2nd then I'm fucking done. That's retirement money right there. Well, not quite. But I'm pretty sure that would be close to say a 2000/1 shot. Maybe even more. Yeeesh.

I'm in for sure as well. Both to win and an exacta box. Let's do this guys!

 

[Sharkey]

The post positions and morning line odds for the Travers;

1 - Arrogate 10/1
2 - American Freedom 6/1
3 - My Man Sam 20/1
4 - Governor Malibu 12/1
5 - Forever d'Oro 30/1
6 - Anaximandros 50/1
7 - Exaggerator 3/1
8 - Destin 10/1
9 - Gift Box 12/1
10 - Connect 4/1
11 - Majesto 30/1
12 - Creator 15/1
13 - Laoban 15/1
14 - Gun Runner 10/1


What a strong field that is, and it's the first time the Travers has had a full field of 14 since nearly 30 years ago. Makes for a great betting race as well, as I can see people making an argument for 11 of these guys. I can only hope this morning lines odds prove accurate come Saturday since I would absolutely friggin love 12/1 on Governor Malibu and 15/1 on Creator. Yes please.

 

[Sharkey]

I really like the way that draw played out for our two horses with Laoban drawing way outside. Or even Gun Runner and Connect. Somebody's gotta go from out there unless they want to be in danger of being caught wide in the first turn. Sorry Laoban. No walking the dog on the lead this time around.

 

[Sharkey]

Here's a very interesting and very positive stat regarding Creator, which I think also illustrates what I've been talking about as far how demanding this 10F distance is on this track compared to what we usually see in the Derby and how important it is to have a healthy dose of stamina in your horse;

"5. Of 62 Belmont Stakes winners who have run in the Travers, 29 of them won the race and another 18 finished second or third. This means Belmont winners finish in the top three 75.8 percent of the time that they run, potentially boosting Creator’s credibility in this year’s Travers."

https://www.americasbestracing.net/...you-should-know-about-the-2016-travers-stakes

Taking a quick peak at the top 3 finishes of both the Belmont and Travers, there also seems to be a correlation between non-Belmont winners who still ran well in that race before going on to have a good run in the Travers as well. Last year the same top 3 finishers in the Travers were also the same top 3 finishers in the Belmont. The year before Wicked Strong finished a good 4th in the Belmont then finished 2nd in the Travers. Tonalist won the Belmont and finished 3rd in the Travers. Orb finished 3rd in both races in 2013. Stay Thirsty finished 2nd in the Belmont the year before that then won the Travers. Fly Down finished 2nd in both races the year before that with First Dude finishing 3rd in both the same year. Summer Bird won both races in 2009. Bluegrass Cat finished 2nd in both races. Etc, etc. It may be something worth looking into with more depth in the next couple of days, but just on the surface it seems like a thing in the plus column for any of the horses who ran well in the Belmont going into the Travers. Creator, Governor Malibu, and Destin, who also have that prep race over the Saratoga track as all three were in the Jim Dandy which itself has been a very successful route for the eventual Travers winners. Interesting. Maybe not since it's not changing any picks of mine. But still interesting.

 

[timmyclax22]

Hey Sharkey can you post all of your plays once you have them finalized?

Love all this info! Goodluck!

 

[Sharkey]

"Oh shit" stat time now;

Destin will be ridden by Javier Castellano in the Travers. Castellano has ridden in the Travers 7 times previously. His Travers record in those 7 races? 5-1-0. Um, yeah. I can't ignore that. There's no way I can ignore that. I have to add Destin in there as my 3rd horse considering that and the fact that he has both the Belmont and Jim Dandy angles going for him too. Plus he's a grey.

 

[Sharkey]

Hey Sharkey can you post all of your plays once you have them finalized?

Love all this info! Goodluck!

Yes, of course, Timmy. I usually post my final plays a couple/few hours before a race, but do tend to give out a good idea on where I'm leaning long before that. The other guys usually post what they're playing as well.

 

[t6p]

"Oh shit" stat time now;

Destin will be ridden by Javier Castellano in the Travers. Castellano has ridden in the Travers 7 times previously. His Travers record in those 7 races? 5-1-0. Um, yeah. I can't ignore that. There's no way I can ignore that. I have to add Destin in there as my 3rd horse considering that and the fact that he has both the Belmont and Jim Dandy angles going for him too. Plus he's a grey.

Wow, that is some stat. I assume that means you're planning to bump My Man Sam?

 

[Sharkey]

Wow, that is some stat. I assume that means you're planning to bump My Man Sam?

I'm not sure, T. I may still use him, but just use him in the 3rd spot in trifectas with the other 3. I'm doing this off the top of my head, so forgive me if I'm wrong. But if I only use him in 3rd with the other ones in trifectas I think that is 12 different combinations. If I play those trifectas for $5 each that would be $60. That's well within the budget I plan on having. Then I could just use Governor Malibu, Creator and Destin in an exacta box for $10, which would also total $60. Then make the two win bets on our original two since they're sure to be higher odds than Destin. I could play it like that quite easily I'm sure.

 

[Sharkey]

Yeah, that would be 12 different combinations for the trifecta by using My Man Sam no higher than 3rd on the tickets he would be on. I could do that if I decide to go that way. Wasn't going to use him in 1st regardless and was even debating using him in 2nd before this stuff about Destin.

 

[Sharkey]

123
132
124
134
213
231
214
234
312
314
321
324

1=Governor Malibu, 2=Creator, 3=Destin, 4=My Man Sam

That's easily affordable regardless of budget, and the absolute minimum it pays is 250/1 with the potential for a 2000/1 if My Man Sam does finish in 3rd behind two of the others.

 

[t6p]

I'm not sure, T. I may still use him, but just use him in the 3rd spot in trifectas with the other 3. I'm doing this off the top of my head, so forgive me if I'm wrong. But if I only use him in 3rd with the other ones in trifectas I think that is 12 different combinations. If I play those trifectas for $5 each that would be $60. That's well within the budget I plan on having. Then I could just use Governor Malibu, Creator and Destin in an exacta box for $10, which would also total $60. Then make the two win bets on our original two since they're sure to be higher odds than Destin. I could play it like that quite easily I'm sure.

Gotcha. Sounds like that could potentially be a good way to play it.

 

[Sharkey]

"The middle move"

I wanted to talk about this a little bit, guys, since one of the horses it looks like we're all betting displayed this in his last race. I mentioned this angle last weekend with Going for Broke, and I also mentioned it earlier in the year to Blunt when discussing the Louisiana Derby. May be the only two times I mentioned it. Going for Broke finished 2nd in that race last weekend, and earlier in the year when talking to Blunt, I mentioned it in regards to Tom's Ready who went on to finish 2nd in the Louisiana Derby at 30/1 or something like that. It's a really good betting angle with the ponies when it comes to off the pace types. One of the best and it's something you guys could look for when looking at the PP's (DRF's work too they just don't give you the E2 number like Brisnet) while you're at the track or whenever you're handicapping races for yourself. Most people who handicap races for themselves only look for early speed or late speed from the horse, but the "middle move" is mostly ignored yet is one of the best indicators of how good a horse is going to do in his next start. A middle move for a horse is a big plus as far as it's conditioning goes. Or as Tom Ainslee put it, it's a "lung opener" and sets them up well for their next race as long as they're not completely crapping the bed in the stretch. Some middle moves are more pronounced than others. Some are more subtle or what is called a "hidden middle move". Governor Malibu had one of these subtle middle moves in the Jim Dandy, which serve him well for the Travers this Saturday. Check it out at the 45 second mark of the video;



A move like that isn't going to be as clear as others when looking at PP's since he didn't gain all that much ground on the leader at that point. But the middle move is there to see on the video.

 

[Sharkey]

Here's an obvious and an extreme example on how a middle move helps a horse from one race to the other and we'll use the favourite in the Travers to show it.

Here's the San Felipe Stakes from earlier in the year and watch Exaggerator from the 45 second mark. He starts making a big middle move at that point in the race, but because his conditioner wasn't at it's peak level yet he wasn't able to sustain it til the end of the race and he faded down the stretch to finish 3rd;




In Exaggerator's next race, the Santa Anita Derby, he was racing against pretty much the same horses he did in the San Felipe. The race shape was a little different, but this time he was able to sustain that move he tried in his race before and went on to crush the field by daylight;

 

[Sharkey]

I should say that such middle moves should be taking place early in a horse's form cycle. Betting this angle when the horse is having his 5th race in 3 months isn't usually going to do you much good. Look for it in a horse's 1st or 2nd start off a layoff.

 

[Sharkey]

Just saw a funny conversation on Bloodhorse where someone is saying they are going to bet one of the Baffert horse by giving the reasoning "he(Baffert) wouldn't be attending the race unless he thought he had a big shot". That seems to be the guy's main handicapping angle. I'm almost tempted to point out to the guy that Baffert has been in attendance for all 5 of the Travers horses he's had over the past decade, including when Bayern finished 10th of 10 in 2014, when Liaison finished 9th of 11 in 2012, and when Coil finished 10th of 10 in 2011. But I won't. He's got his own dumb reasoning while I have to worry about my own dumb reasoning.

 

[Sharkey]

Brisnet PP's for the Travers and the other races on the card are up if anyone wants to take a peak at them;

https://downthestretchs.com/tag/free-past-performances/

 

[Sharkey]

Some more potentially useless stats factoring in Belmont runners;

- 17 of the last 20 Travers winners have ran in either the Belmont or Jim Dandy, or, as in the case with 6 of them, sometimes both. One of the ones who didn't was VE Day who ran on the Saratoga track in the Curlin that year and also showed himself a stamina horse after the Travers by finishing 2nd in stakes races at 12F and 13F. Another one was Deputy Commander, who also had proven himself at longer distances after the Travers by winning at 10F in the Super Derby and finishing 2nd in the BC Classic.

- 50 of the last 60 horses who have hit the board in the Travers had ran in either the Belmont or Jim Dandy before that with 16 in total having ran in both.

This year Governor Malibu, Creator and Destin have ran in both. Laoban of course won the Jim Dandy. And while people may have forgot they were in the race considering how far they were behind at the finish, both Exaggerator and Forever d'Oro ran in the Belmont. That's it. Just those 6 out of this group of 14. Ho hum. It changes nothing for me. But hey. I figured I'd see what that angle said when looking at the data.

 

[Sharkey]

The last horse to win the Haskell then go on to win the Travers was Point Given in 2001. Point Given was quite the beast though, having crushed everything he entred that year besides the Derby, including him winning the 2001 Belmont by daylight. Besides American Pharoah last year, 3 of the last 4 Haskell winners who attempted the Travers have been complete non-factors. Including two who finished in last place in the Travers after winning the Haskell. Those two being Bob Baffert trained horses as mentioned above with Bayern and Coil.

Some of these Haskell winners who attempted the Travers after that were front running types who found the Saratoga track a hell of a lot more demanding than what they saw running at Monmouth, which typically favours front end speed types like those that Baffert usually produces. Bayern was last in the Travers. Verrazano was 7th of 9. Lion Heart was last in 2004.

 

[Sharkey]

Re: Jockey Standings for this Saratoga meet;

Irad Ortiz is in 1st and rides Creator. Javier Castellano is in 3rd and rides Destin. Joel Rosario is in 5th and rides Governor Malibu. They're all in good hands.