Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

Sharkey said:
I'm not sure, K. I thought XBTV would be showing the full card today, but it looks like they'll only be doing that tomorrow. Do you have NBC Sports? If so, I think you can watch it with their online service. Maybe. I don;t have it myself, so I'm not sure.

Apparently with how sloppy the track is right now the rail trip has been key so far today. Not that the Oaks' favourite, Paradise Woods, needed any more advantages, but she'll get that rail trip with her breaking from the #4 post. I'm not going to try to beat her, but will make a couple of small wagers just to have something on the race today cause I think this race could open up for a couple of late runners to hit the board;

#1 Ever So Clever to place for 1u and to show for 2u
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Semi tailing this:

0.5u Ever So Clever to show
0.2u Paradise Woods/Ever So Clever (Exacta)

Good luck Sharkey and thanks as always!
 
Race after race today it couldn't be any more clear where you want to have your horse positioned on the track;

 


I'll worry about tomorrow when the times comes as today I'll be on another longshot closer who'll be breaking from the #1 post and riding the rail the whole way around in the Oaks.
 
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/oaks-live-odds

36/1 on a filly who's last race was even better than it looks, who should have the race shape that will suit her style, and will get to ride the best part of the track for however long she wants to considering where she drew? Yes please. I'll take a little bit of that thank you very much.
 
Looking At Lee top 5 +340
Practical Joke top 5 +350
Sonneteer top 5 +525




Seems like those 3 lines have value? Unlikely, but they all could hit, too
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Looking At Lee top 5 +340
Practical Joke top 5 +350
Sonneteer top 5 +525




Seems like those 3 lines have value? Unlikely, but they all could hit, too
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Looking At Lee and Sonneteer are probably the safer plays to finish top 5, Jae, as I'd say that the odds of at least one of them gets a clean trip and can crack the top 5 if not even higher are quite good. Both may get through and be passing a lot of tired horses late as well. Practical Joke is more of a question mark of the three at this distance, but he also likely has more upside as a win candidate if that makes any sense. What I mean by that is no finish between 1st and 15th would really surprise me with Practical Joke whereas the other two look more like the safer 2nd to 8th place horses.
 
Added 0.2u Ever So Clever to win at +3500
 
Miss Sky Warrior was apparently fired up on the walkover to the track a little while ago. Hopefully she continues to be since she was figuring to be a pace presence anyways and could be even moreso now. The #1 is gonna need some pace here.
 
Sharkey said:
So you're saying you'll be buying the beer if she gets the job done, yes? Best of luck to you, T.
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Cheers, bud. This would be a seriously nice hit. Couldn't resist putting in an Ever So Clever over Paradise Woods exacta too just in case.
 
t6p said:
Cheers, bud. This would be a seriously nice hit. Couldn't resist putting in an Ever So Clever over Paradise Woods exacta too just in case.
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At 35/1 you're pretty much obligated to throw a little bit on her in the win spot if you like her to finish top 3, so I don't blame you. Wished I did the same myself, but only playing her to place and show.
 
Haven't commented in here in quite awhile, but been checking in. @Sharkey as always amazing stuff for us casuals. You are the man. I'm tailing on your plays here based on what you've posted. I have Hence locked in at +2500 and top 3 at +450. Also boxed up exactas and trifectas on Lookin at Lee, Hence, Sonneteer, and Practical Joke.

My wife and daughter always each pick a random horse too that I put little win bets on for them. (Not capping, purely just picking by name alone and don't even know the odds LOL). Wife picked Thunder Snow and daughter picked Battle of Midway.

So outside all the above horses, if there was one other horse you'd think about taking a stab at given current odds who would it be. I see @t6p liking Ever so Clever. Worth a shot at long odds maybe? Or is there another horse you think has more value? With such a huge field I'm thinking I want to make one more play.
 
mkess101 said:
Haven't commented in here in quite awhile, but been checking in. @Sharkey as always amazing stuff for us casuals. You are the man. I'm tailing on your plays here based on what you've posted. I have Hence locked in at +2500 and top 3 at +450. Also boxed up exactas and trifectas on Lookin at Lee, Hence, Sonneteer, and Practical Joke.

My wife and daughter always each pick a random horse too that I put little win bets on for them. (Not capping, purely just picking by name alone and don't even know the odds LOL). Wife picked Thunder Snow and daughter picked Battle of Midway.

So outside all the above horses, if there was one other horse you'd think about taking a stab at given current odds who would it be. I see @t6p liking Ever so Clever. Worth a shot at long odds maybe? Or is there another horse you think has more value? With such a huge field I'm thinking I want to make one more play.
Click to expand...

Ever So Clever actually ran earlier today in the Kentucky Oaks and she didn't perform well. But not to worry, today was just a warm up for the main event where we'll all (hopefully) cash some tickets. Good luck with your plays.

EDIT: If any of those exactas or tris especially come through you're going to be looking at some really nice payouts
 
mkess101 said:
Haven't commented in here in quite awhile, but been checking in. @Sharkey as always amazing stuff for us casuals. You are the man. I'm tailing on your plays here based on what you've posted. I have Hence locked in at +2500 and top 3 at +450. Also boxed up exactas and trifectas on Lookin at Lee, Hence, Sonneteer, and Practical Joke.

My wife and daughter always each pick a random horse too that I put little win bets on for them. (Not capping, purely just picking by name alone and don't even know the odds LOL). Wife picked Thunder Snow and daughter picked Battle of Midway.

So outside all the above horses, if there was one other horse you'd think about taking a stab at given current odds who would it be. I see @t6p liking Ever so Clever. Worth a shot at long odds maybe? Or is there another horse you think has more value? With such a huge field I'm thinking I want to make one more play.
Click to expand...

Cheers Mike.

Your question is a tough one and I think the ladies in your family actually picked a couple of decent ones beyond the original four that we're playing. As for some other longer priced horses, State of Honor is a horse that I keep going back and forth on, and I can see him doing okay under the right pace circumstances. Can't see him winning this race, but he's been a consistent hard trying type who's going to give his all regardless. If there's a pace that's on the soft side up front I could see him sticking around to grab a piece at the end at huge odds. If the track comes up wet again like it did today then Gormley has that impressive race he ran in the slop earlier in the year, which has been his best race to date so far. Maybe he could duplicate that to some extent tomorrow. I talked up Irap a little bit a few pages back in comparison to one of the favourites, so maybe he can be considered at big odds. He's got that big new top angle going against him and that's one of the worst ones there are. But a few of those who came into the Derby off a big new top have finished 3rd or 4th, and he has looked quite good in his training this week. He's not without at least a chance. I guess one of those three would be who I'd recommend as a longshot possibility.
 
t6p said:
Ever So Clever actually ran earlier today in the Kentucky Oaks and she didn't perform well. But not to worry, today was just a warm up for the main event where we'll all (hopefully) cash some tickets. Good luck with your plays.

EDIT: If any of those exactas or tris especially come through you're going to be looking at some really nice payouts
Click to expand...

Hey, look on the bright side, T. She finished better than the 6/5 favourite and the 4/1 2nd choice so it wasn't all bad. Ugh. But a performance like that from a 35/1 shot is pretty easy to stomach in the end. We also had the shape of the race pretty figured out, so we had the right idea but were just on the wrong horse.
 
@t6p

TDN still hasn't put up Sonneteer's thorograph sheet on their site, so I'm going to have to make an estimate that it looks like;

Sonneteer: 82.5, 91, 92.5 (109) * ?, 5 1/4, 3 1/4 (?, T, T) * 4th last race * 24.4 feet * 5/2

I wouldn't know what his race from 3 back would have been given, but I'm 99.9% sure that I'm right there in the ballpark with his last two races and that each of them constituted a new top for him since we know what horses like Untrapped, Malagacy, Lookin At Lee, Classic Empire, etc. got in those races. Every other figure maker has him as a horse that has just gotten good over the last couple of races, so I feel good about giving him that T, T pattern and thus having him check in a total of 7 categories. The two race pattern is what we're mainly looking at anyways when it comes to the Derby.
 
I'm done and ready to go tomorrow when I put these in;

Hence / Lookin At Lee, Sonneteer / Lookin At Lee, Sonneteer, Practical Joke

Exactas for 2u each (4u total)
Trifectas for 0.5u each (2u total)

I'm playing those exotics very narrow, so if they hit then I'm laughing. And if they don't then that's okay since I'm not in total reliance on them.

Hence to win for 4u and to place for 6u
Lookin At Lee to show for 5u
Sonneteer to show for 4u


That's it. That'll be my plays for the Derby. I eventually decided against State of Honor just because him and my other runners have such contrasting running styles and, save for Hence and maybe Practical Joke, are going to need an opposite pace scenario than what State of Honor wants. He doesn't really fit with the others, so he's off the tickets.
 
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