Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

Sharkey said:
- A combined BSF/BRIS figure in their final 9F prep of 95 or greater
- A maintain or improve pattern to their combined BSF/BRIS figure over the last 3 races going into the Derby (less than 4 pt drop in either of their last two races)
- Best combined BSF/BRIS came in their last prep at 9F
- Brisnet late pace figure of at least 95 in their final prep at 9F
- Running a new top (T) thorograph figure in their final prep but not drastically so
- Having one of the four positive thorograph patterns over their last two prep races (P, T), (P, P), (T, T) or (T, P)
- Finished 1st or 2nd in their final prep with 1st being preferred
- Showed a stride length of at least 23.5 feet at the end of their final prep race at 9F
- Have at least a 6 count when combining races that are over a mile in length and that featured 10+ field sizes, or at least 3 races at over a mile with 2 races with 10+ field sizes

Always Dreaming (4): 87, 77.5, 99.5 (99) * 9 1/4, 9 1/4, -0 1/2 (X, X, T) * 1st last race * 22.4 feet * 3/1
Girvin (5): 86.5, 95.5, 95 (96) * 9 1/2, 4 3/4, 4 3/4 (X, P, P) * 1st last race * 22.9 feet * 2/2
Gunnevera (3): 94, 99.5, 91.5 (102) * 3 1/4, -2 1/2, 3 1/4 (P, T, X) * 3rd last race * ??? (+) * 5/4
Hence (8): 80.5, 83.5, 100 (93) * 9 3/4, 7, 3 (P, T, T) * 1st last race * 24.3 feet * 4/5
McCraken (2): 89.5, 97, 92 (90) * 5, 2, 2 (P, T, P) * 3rd last race * 22.2 feet * 3/2
Irish War Cry (4): 99.5, 69.5, 101.5 (80) * 1 1/4, 10 1/4, -2 3/4 (T, X, T) * 1st last race * 22.1 feet * 3/2
Gormley (2): 97, 90.5, 93.5 (77) * 1, 5 1/4, 4 (T, X, O) * 1st last race * 22.5 feet * 4/3
Battle of Midway (4): 83, 88, 93 (71) * 6, 5 1/4, 5 1/4 (P, P, P) * 2nd last race * 22.0 feet * 2/1
Practical Joke (7): 94, 91.5, 95.5 (93) * 3 1/2, 1 , -0 1/2 (P, T, T) * 2nd last race * 21.7 feet * 3/3
J Boys Echo (1): 88.5, 103, 88.5 (87) * 5 1/4, 1 1/4, 4 (T, T, O) * 4th last race * ??? (-) * 5/4
Tapwrit (2): 95, 98.5, 81.5 (76) * 4, 1 1/2, 4 3/4 (P, T, O) * 5th last race * ??? (-) * 3/2
Irap (5): 79.5, 86, 96.5 (92) * 10, 7 1/2, 0 1/4 (O, P, T...giant new top) * 1st * 22.1 feet * 6/2
Patch (2): 72, 95, 93.5 (94) * 12 3/4, 3, 7 1/2 (T, T, X) * 2nd last race * 22.3 feet * 1/2
State of Honor (4): 94.5, 96, 93.5 (92) * 4, 4 3/4, 4 (P, P, P) * 2nd last race * 22.0 feet * 5/5
Classic Empire (5): 105, 86.5, 95 (97) * 0, 4 1/2, 2 1/2 (T, X, O) * 1st last race * 24.3 ft * 4/3
Lookin At Lee (7): 85, 88.5, 92.5 (107) * 7, 6, 3 1/4 (P, P, T) * 3rd last race * 24.1 ft * 6/5
Fast and Accurate (5): 74.5, 81, 84 (65) * 12 1/2, 10 3/4, 8 (T, T, T) * 1st last race * 21.5 ft * 1/1
Untrapped (2): 93.5, 91, 88 (84) * 4 3/4, 4 3/4, 4 3/4 (P, P, P) * 6th last race * ??? (-) * 4/5
Royal Mo (2): 94.5, 77, 92.5 (70) * 6 1/4, 8, 4 (T, O, T) * 3rd last race * 22.9 feet * 3/3
------------------
Sonneteer: 82.5, 91, 92.5 (109) * ?, ?, ? (?, ?, ?) * 4th last race * 24.4 feet * 5/2
Thunder Snow: ??, ??, ??, (??) * 6, 3 1/4, 3 (T, T, P) * 1st last race * 23.3 ft * 1/3


That should be the full 20 horse field for this year's Derby and then with Royal Mo included too as he's next in line to draw in should one of the others have to scratch for whatever reason. I can't do Thunder Snow's BSF/BRIS numbers since they don't do numbers for overseas races and I wouldn't even want to guess too much with them. Still waiting for Sonneteer's thorograph numbers to appear on TDN, but I'm about 95% positive he'll be going into the race on a nice T, T pattern based on what his competitors got in those races, and if so, he'll be only one of four horses who check in at least 7 categories (Hence 8, Lookin At Lee 7, and Practical Joke 7 are the other three). I also had to guess with a few of these guy's stride length just because they weren't on the screen enough at the end of their last race. I gave Gunnevera a plus in that regard since he has always shown good stride length before and was finishing well at the end of his last race, and he's the only one of the four I gave it too for different reasons (Tapwrit was finishing poorly in last race despite showing stride length in other races, and J Boys Echo & Untrapped finished poorly, plus those two have never shown that length even in their best races).

What all this stuff means and how it impacts the winner and other top finishers in the Derby can be found over the last 10 pages or so of this thread (page 53, 55, etc). Forgive me for not typing all that stuff out again. But hopefully some of this stuff can be useful in helping us cash a ticket or two on Saturday.
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Hey Sharkey, what do you think about Hence placing better than J Boys Echo at -160 based on your numbers/rankings?
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Hey Sharkey, what do you think about Hence placing better than J Boys Echo at -160 based on your numbers/rankings?
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Well, 2/3rds of my planned bankroll will be focused on Hence finishing top 2, Jae, with most of that 2/3rds being on him beating everybody in the race. Not just J Boys Echo, who I have no interest in putting even a single penny on. That should tell you who I think finishes better between those two. But at the same time I'll be looking for a lot more than 3/5 on Hence running well on Saturday (e.g. I'd be all over that line that @t6p gave for Hence to finish top 3 if I had a 5dimes account, which I don't), so I'll leave the individual matchups up to you guys to decide.
 
Sharkey said:
Well, 2/3rds of my planned bankroll will be focused on Hence finishing top 2, Jae, with most of that 2/3rds being on him beating everybody in the race. Not just J Boys Echo, who I have no interest in putting even a single penny on. That should tell you who I think finishes better between those two. But at the same time I'll be looking for a lot more than 3/5 on Hence running well on Saturday (e.g. I'd be all over that line that @t6p gave for Hence to finish top 3 if I had a 5dimes account, which I don't), so I'll leave the individual matchups up to you guys to decide.
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Awesome, thanks. I just put a little on Hence top 3 at +450. What do you think about Hence top 5 +210? haha
 
I think Irap is the only common opponent of Hence and J Boys Echo. Hence crushed Irap by 8 1/2 lengths in the Sunland Derby and then Irap came back to crush J Boys Echo by 6 1/4 lengths in the Blue Grass. Not that that is going to mean a whole lot. But maybe something to think about in addition to those other things that say that Hence is much more likely to run a good race in the Derby of those two. J Boys Echo has also trained inconsistently the past couple of week. Some days he looks just okay. And other days he looks like he's not ready to run a 50 claimer.
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Awesome, thanks. I just put a little on Hence top 3 at +450. What do you think about Hence top 5 +210? haha
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Sure why not, Jae. If you want a little bit more insurance then that doesn't look like a bad bet I guess.
 
Sharkey said:
I think Irap is the only common opponent of Hence and J Boys Echo. Hence crushed Irap by 8 1/2 lengths in the Sunland Derby and then Irap came back to crush J Boys Echo by 6 1/4 lengths in the Blue Grass. Not that that is going to mean a whole lot. But maybe something to think about in addition to those other things that say that Hence is much more likely to run a good race in the Derby of those two. J Boys Echo has also trained inconsistently the past couple of week. Some days he looks just okay. And other days he looks like he's not ready to run a 50 claimer.
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Awesome, good to hear! That was the one matchup that stood out, since Hence is the highest (8) vs lowest, JBE(1) according to your numbers.
 
Anyone done any capping on the Kentucky Oaks tomorrow?
Going to be weird watching the Derby on TV Saturday since I was there last year.
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Awesome, good to hear! That was the one matchup that stood out, since Hence is the highest (8) vs lowest, JBE(1) according to your numbers.
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Well, if you want to play it, Jae, I think you could do so with a lot of confidence. But I'm looking and thus playing Hence to have much higher aspirations in the Derby than simply beating a turd like J Boys Echo. Haha.
 
kenfloshogun said:
Anyone done any capping on the Kentucky Oaks tomorrow?
Going to be weird watching the Derby on TV Saturday since I was there last year.
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I looked at the Oaks some myself, K, but the favourite looks legitimate and I'm not sure I'd either want to bet her at a very short price or try to beat her. The filly who drew the #1 post, Ever So Clever, did catch my eye as a longshot that may have the race shape to her advantage and allow her to run a big race and hit the board.
 
Sharkey said:
Well, if you want to play it, Jae, I think you could do so with a lot of confidence. But I'm looking and thus playing Hence to have much higher aspirations in the Derby than simply beating a turd like J Boys Echo. Haha.
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Although I don't really know what I'm talking about re horses, it sounds like that line should be at least -200. I'm going to play it along my other Hence action. I don't want this to happen, but maybe Hence has a poor showing and places like 9th, but JBE places like 16th haha. At least I will hit the -160
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Although I don't really know what I'm talking about re horses, it sounds like that line should be at least -200. I'm going to play it along my other Hence action. I don't want this to happen, but maybe Hence has a poor showing and places like 9th, but JBE places like 16th haha. At least I will hit the -160
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It certainly is possible that Hence has a troubled race, Jae. No doubt about that. It's a huge 20 horse field and there's going to be some horses that find themselves in traffic trouble during the running of the race. It's hard to handicap which horses will have that trouble, although horses who prefer to run in the back half of the field are obviously more prone to it than others. Depending on the pace, Hence does have enough early tactical speed to find himself a good position in the early running, and has displayed a very strong middle move in the past (especially his last race), and a good sustained run to end a race. I think he should be okay from a tactical point of view since he should already be in a good position with clearance around the far turn when some of the early front runners start backing up. But you never know, right? A lot of chaos can happen in a 20 horse field and it can happen to any horse.
 
Sharkey said:
I looked at the Oaks some myself, K, but the favourite looks legitimate and I'm not sure I'd either want to bet her at a very short price or try to beat her. The filly who drew the #1 post, Ever So Clever, did catch my eye as a longshot that may have the race shape to her advantage and allow her to run a big race and hit the board.
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The #1 Ever So Clever is sitting at 47/1 in the early wagering for the Oaks. If that keeps up I'm going to have to go down to the OTB tomorrow and put a little something on her. Maybe play her across the board. She's okay and her last race was better than it looks as she was forced to make up over 9 lengths on horses that were setting soft fractions, which she did to win.
 
Add me on the Hence train. I love it. Got him at +1950. We're gonna hit it big on the Derby this year boys, I can FEEL IT!!
 
Churchill Downs has carded 5 Grade 1 races for Friday & Saturday, 5 Grade 2 races, and then 3 Grade 3 races. In a couple of weeks for the Preakness we'll be lucky if we get 3 graded stakes races at the very most for that weekend. And the cheap fuckers at Pimlico also charge a higher takeout as well, in addition to boosting their ticket prices way the hell up there.

Kentucky Derby ---> Belmont Stakes ---> Travers Stakes

That's the real Triple Crown of horse racing for these 3 year-olds I say. The three longest races of the year for the crop from three tracks who are willing to give back to the players/fans by carding other big races those days as well. They're also, year after year, the three strongest fields of the year for horses of this age, and tend to absolutely trounce the Preakness fields in overall quality.
 
kenfloshogun said:
Anyone have a link to the action at Churchill today?
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I'm not sure, K. I thought XBTV would be showing the full card today, but it looks like they'll only be doing that tomorrow. Do you have NBC Sports? If so, I think you can watch it with their online service. Maybe. I don;t have it myself, so I'm not sure.

Apparently with how sloppy the track is right now the rail trip has been key so far today. Not that the Oaks' favourite, Paradise Woods, needed any more advantages, but she'll get that rail trip with her breaking from the #4 post. I'm not going to try to beat her, but will make a couple of small wagers just to have something on the race today cause I think this race could open up for a couple of late runners to hit the board;

#1 Ever So Clever to place for 1u and to show for 2u
 
Based on the Oaks-Derby will pays for that double it looks like Always Dreaming, Gunnevera, McCraken, Classic Empire, and Irish War Cry are all going to go off at very similar odds this time tomorrow. All five may be bunched up in that 6/1 to 8/1 range.
 
I did a bunch of different combos with McCracken and hence irish war cry and hence. My longshot is the 11 battle of midway. Also threw in the 10 gunnevera and 18 gormley in different exactas
 
Monster Meat said:
I did a bunch of different combos with McCracken and hence irish war cry and hence. My longshot is the 11 battle of midway. Also threw in the 10 gunnevera and 18 gormley in different exactas
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Best of luck to you, Meat, and nice to see you mixing it up some with a few different horses.
 
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