Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

You've got a good eye my man, because the way Creator came through the traffic is a great sign. Especially in the manner he did since he was pushing a couple of horses out of his path while not breaking stride. Moves such as those rank very high when it comes to the herd dynamics of handicapping races. It's both physically and mentally strong move that very few of the off the pace types in this year's race have shown so far. Creators is a tough horse who's already shown a willingness to take control of the paths he wants to run on.

In addition to Creator, horses like Nyquist, Brody's Cause, and Gun Runner have also shown similar qualities in regards to a willingness to compete for running space. Horses like Mor Spirit and Mohaymen are the opposite from what I've seen. From watching the races of those two they look like they'd rather back down to their competition rather than fight for that running space.

This workout was from this morning and is a small example of what I was meaning here when it comes to Mor Spirit. His workmate is a 4 year-old maiden who has raced only once in his life, and while Mor Spirit got up to him easily enough, he allowed his workmate to beat him to the wire and also during the gallop out. Mor Spirit never did get a nose in front. He looked visually okay during the workout save that. But he's got to put workmates like that away.

 
Sorry if I missed it and I know it's several days away, but who's your favorite to win so far Shark? Not necessarily bet wise just in general. Nyquist was impressive in the race I watched (I think you recommended to bet him and he won and looked really good doing it). Also know he's the favorite to win but wondering if you favor him as well.
 
Sorry if I missed it and I know it's several days away, but who's your favorite to win so far Shark? Not necessarily bet wise just in general. Nyquist was impressive in the race I watched (I think you recommended to bet him and he won and looked really good doing it). Also know he's the favorite to win but wondering if you favor him as well.

I don't know if I'd favour him outright, Blunt, but along with Creator and Exaggerator I do see him as one of the three most likely winners at this point. Hard to knock last year's two year-old champion who's gone 7 for 7 during his career which includes four grade 1 wins. But there are questions there with him too;

- his two best races based on the speed figures came in sprint races at 6.5 and 7 furlongs
- the statistical analysis of his breeding is very poor for the Derby distance, whether that be his AWD at the top & bottom of his pedigree which I posted, his Tomlinson distance rating of 202 being the lowest in the field, his 7.00 dosage is incredibly high
- he's only ran 16F in total this year when racing, which I can't remember the last time a Derby winner came out of running such a short distance competitively
- couple that 16F of racing this year with the fact that he had an elevated white cell count a few weeks ago that kept him from doing anything more than walking for about a week on the track
- couple both of those with the fact that his last workout before the Derby was officially a full mile. Why the need for a full mile I wonder when the vast majority of horses should be in maintenance mode at this point.

I think he's the best horse in the race regardless of distance, but is he the best horse in the race for the 10F distance? Is he coming into this race in the type of peak condition that he'll need to win this thing? I don't know. But those questions need to be asked. Horses can certainly out run their pedigree as we've seen in the past on many occasions. And maybe that mile work was just what he needed to get up to peak condition for the race. But there's questions there with him.

I'm also very interested in how Mohaymen looks in the next few days. If he is still his over agressive self that we've seen the past couple of weeks I'll be playing the race with Mohaymen aggressively pursuing the front, which obviously helps the pace play faster than it otherwise should. I still see a pace that's slightly on the fast side anyways. But if Mohaymen doesn't settle down this week I think the pace becomes that much faster and would be detrimental to a horse like Nyquist who likes to be up close.
 
I should have mentioned him before, but Outwork is another horse who has good fight in him and likes to battle for position. Him and Nyquist could be fighting for similar positioning on the track, and sometimes that's all the off the pace types need in a race regardless of timed intervals of the pace. Both have that willingness to battle and if that is what happens in the Derby and they start contesting each other early in the race that's going to drain both of them both mentally and then physically.
 
I don't know about anybody else, but I plan on crushing the Derby by cashing a win bet, an exacta and a trifecta. Who's with me, huh? Come on, who's with me? Blunt is paying for the beer and supplying the pot after the race if that helps entice you all.
 
One more thing with Nyquist, Blunt, if you watch him running during the stretch of the Florida Derby you can see him veer out a couple of paths just before the 1/16th pole. Often times that's a sign of a horse who was close to dead tired. But there are times when that is simple a sign that a horse lacked concentration at that moment in time for whatever reason. I'm leaning towards the latter just because he was straightened quick enough by the jock and didn't have the appearance of an exhausted horse crossing the line. But then again, as I pointed out, the 2nd place horse went well by him in the gallop out soon after the race was over. Maybe a combination of both things?
 
Great stuff man, thanks for the feedback. Great thread btw, glad you made it. Can't wait for this Saturday.
 
Great stuff man, thanks for the feedback. Great thread btw, glad you made it. Can't wait for this Saturday.

Cheers Blunt. I can't wait either. I also want the post draw over and done with too then I can really start to figure out how I want to play the race. I'm hoping for one or two early speed or presser types to draw into one of the first 3 or 4 gates. Or one of those to draw to draw a gate that's early in the loading sequence whether it be 1-3 or 11-13. I may be doing cartwheels if Mohaymen is one to draw one those posts while still be over aggressive in the mornings. He's already looking like a potential run off candidate as of now. Throw in a gate position where the jock would have no choice but to send him early and after sitting in the gate for a few minutes? Yes please.
 
"Mohaymen, however. He was back to his old antics today after seeming a little bit calmer yesterday. He was really on the muscle again this morning. Buck jumping down the backstretch. Running off with his rider. Coming down the lane on his left lead. Just not what I really want to see..."

- Mike Welsch from this morning (2:55 mark of following video)

http://www.drf.com/kentucky-derby-workouts

Love it. An 8/1 second or third choice that will be dead on the board. But hey, he should at least give other horses some pace to run at unless by some off chance he calms right down over the next couple of mornings.
 
Mohaymen was like that kid in school who matured really early and had grown hair on his balls by the time he was 11. Now that he is a senior in high school he's finding out that all of his classmates have grown a full patch of hair on their balls by this point.
 
I don't typically bet the Oaks, but if anybody is interested in doing so they held the draw for that race earlier today;


1 - Terra Promessa 10/1
2 - Weep No More 9/2
3 - Lewis Bay 8/1
4 - Go Maggie Go 12/1
5 - Dream Dance 30/1
6 - Mokat 20/1
7 - Mo d'Amour 30/1
8 - Royal Obsession 20/1
9 - Paola Queen 30/1
10 - Venus Valentine 30/1
11 - Rachel's Valentina 7/2
12 - Cathryn Sophia 9/2
13 - Land Over Sea 5/1
14 - Taxable 20/1

AE - Dothraki Queen 30/1


And some free PP's for this race courtesy of Brisnet;

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KYOaks16.pdf


I haven't done any sort of handicapping at all for the race, but if I do decide to play it that 8/1 price on Lewis Bay is very intriguing even though I'd hate to play against Rachel's little girl. A quick look through the Brisnet PP's says Lewis Bay is the only one to have previously won at the 9F distance that is the Oaks, and she did so on two separate occasions. Most haven't even raced at 9F. She has the best last out speed figure of the bunch, which is the best in the group as a whole regardless of when. And according to the coverage from the various clockers from the past week there's not a horse, male or female, that is training better for the races this weekend than she is. May have to take a more serious look at this Oaks race some and see if I can back that one.
 
Great stuff man, thanks for the feedback. Great thread btw, glad you made it. Can't wait for this Saturday.

You know what, Blunt. I'm just going to come out and say it. There really is some great stuff in this thread. Stuff that nobody else has access to unless they read this thread. The vast majority of people are going to be betting on the Derby based on either very little information or they're going to be basing their picks on what mainstream sports outlets or popular horse racing outlets. There's no value there. How can there be when the vast majority of people are betting based on reading the same articles. The advantage in betting the Derby and finding value is when you have access to information that almost nobody else does. And all the detailed data I came up with in here with this year's horses, and how it relates to Derby winners/top3 finishers is one prime example of that. You're not going to find this shit anywhere else. I've read a couple of articles and a couple of horse racing forums who tried this approach, but the data isn't nearly as detailed or as extensive as I came up with. Not even close. It took me at least 10, maybe even 15 hours to compile and then post it all. Who the fuck does that? Who knows if it will pay off in the end. It may. Maybe not. But I feel very strongly that I have a big advantage going into the race over the typical player because I put the time into compiling all that.
 
Post positions and, as screwed up as it is (off by 10-15%), the morning line odds for this year's runners;

1 - Trojan Nation 50/1
2 - Suddenbreakingnews 20/1
3 - Creator 10/1
4 - Mo Tom 20/1
5 - Gun Runner 10/1
6 - My Man Sam 20/1
7 - Oscar Nominated 50/1
8 - Lani 30/1
9 - Destin 15/1
10 - Whitmore 20/1
11 - Exaggerator 8/1
12 - Tom's Ready 30/1
13 - Nyquist 3/1
14 - Mohaymen 10/1
15 - Outwork 15/1
16 - Shagaf 20/1
17 - Mor Spirit 12/1
18 - Majesto 30/1
19 - Brody's Cause 12/1
20 - Danzing Camdy 15/1

AE - Laoban
AE - Cherry Wine
 
All the speed drawing outside with the fastest of the early runners drawing widest of all. He has no choice but to gun. You don't think there's going to be a pace to run at now?

Gun Runner drew great. Best draw of the bunch.
 
Liking that I locked in Creator at 20-1 seeing his price now. AND I got it on the sportsbook not the racebook so they can't fuck me over and pay me less if he wins. NOICE.
 
Liking that I locked in Creator at 20-1 seeing his price now. AND I got it on the sportsbook not the racebook so they can't fuck me over and pay me less if he wins. NOICE.

Yeah, that's great value man. This morning line is a little out of whack, though. If the linemaker was doing his job right Creator would be either 11/1 or 12/1 on the morning line. Still way less than what you got him.

Did you notice what post he got? Noticed what post he got in the Arkansas Derby? Noticed who drew in right beside him once again? That exacta paid 60/1 that day. Think a 300/1 exacta on Saturday is worth taking a shot at history repeating itself in the Derby? I just might.
 
3,5,10

Exacta and Trifecta boxes.

Still scoping here for more knowledge from Sharkey but as of now locking in on these three horses. Have bets locked on each to win (in sportsbook not racebook just like BT so odds locked and much better than the morning line).

Could add some depending on what I'm seeing here.
 
3,5,10

Exacta and Trifecta boxes.

Still scoping here for more knowledge from Sharkey but as of now locking in on these three horses. Have bets locked on each to win (in sportsbook not racebook just like BT so odds locked and much better than the morning line).

Could add some depending on what I'm seeing here.

What would you like to see my friend? I've been trying to think of what else I could come up with to try to narrow down the field even more or maybe unearth some value with the longer shots. Would some statistical data based on pedigree help some? It may not show who won't be able to get the 10F distance since horses do outrun their pedigrees. But it might give confidence to your horses if the data shows that they should be able to relish the distance. As long as they have some talent, those bred to run long generally do perform better as the distances get longer.

I was also planning on doing a quick horse by horse analysis based on what I think their chances might be to win or run in the money. I may simplify that by categorizing them like "best win candidates", "best value for the win", "best longshots to hit the board", "worst value", etc., etc. But I still kind of want people to do what you yourself did and came up with your own horses. More fun that way. Especially in the Derby. It's a big feather in the cap when someone can say "I picked the Derby winner" rather than have someone else pick it for them.
 
What would you like to see my friend? I've been trying to think of what else I could come up with to try to narrow down the field even more or maybe unearth some value with the longer shots. Would some statistical data based on pedigree help some? It may not show who won't be able to get the 10F distance since horses do outrun their pedigrees. But it might give confidence to your horses if the data shows that they should be able to relish the distance. As long as they have some talent, those bred to run long generally do perform better as the distances get longer.

I was also planning on doing a quick horse by horse analysis based on what I think their chances might be to win or run in the money. I may simplify that by categorizing them like "best win candidates", "best value for the win", "best longshots to hit the board", "worst value", etc., etc. But I still kind of want people to do what you yourself did and came up with your own horses. More fun that way. Especially in the Derby. It's a big feather in the cap when someone can say "I picked the Derby winner" rather than have someone else pick it for them.

The first part would be cool. For me really just to (like you said) confirm the horses I like are okay at this distance. I don't think it's an issue for the horses I'm on but to see it backed up by data would be sweet.


The second part for sure if you have time would be awesome. I think based on what you've posted so far (which is awesome) I actually have a decent feel for where you will come out on a lot of the horses. But if you did a horse by horse breakdown the way you listed I (should say "we" since there's others looking) could see if there's anything that might have slipped by.

I've pretty much decided I'm rolling with the 3 I listed but I wouldn't be opposed to possibly adding 1-2 more horses into the mix. That said, in a field this size where is the point of diminishing returns? I don't feel like 4 horses is too many but not sure. I won't add any to my 3 just to add but if there's another horse or two that look really good and seem to have value...? Not sure.
 
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