Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

Cheers man.

You know, just using the data I posted here I think the two horses you landed on show that you interpreted that stuff quite well.

My advice, though, if you want to lock in now is to take Whitmore at that price if you like him. His odds are going to be dropping quite a bit come Derby day simply because of who'll be riding him in the race (Victor Espinoza). I'd be surprised if he's north of 20/1 next week. I'd wait on Gun Runner, though. You should be able to get around 12/1 next week as well. Maybe even a little better. And if does drop it won't be more than a point or two I don't think.

Locking in Whitmore now. Will hold off on Gun Runner. If' he's 11-1 or 10-1 next week not gonna kill me, and like you said maybe he drops a bit and I get better odds.
 
Locking in Whitmore now. Will hold off on Gun Runner. If' he's 11-1 or 10-1 next week not gonna kill me, and like you said maybe he drops a bit and I get better odds.

Best of luck to you. I think you have a very intriguing longshot with Whitmore there. Personally speaking and before the draw, etc, I think he's the longshot to play in the field myself. He can run and I think has already shown better than at least half the field in here. I think there's a good chance he came out of the key prep race as well, in which he ran a very respectable 3rd. As an off the pace type he also has one of the better late runs in the field when coming around the turn and into the stretch. His issue in the last couple of races has been sustaining that late run to the line, though. If he can do that then he's quite dangerous because those off the pace types who have already started their run and are picking off horses before they hit the stretch are what you want to see from a potential Derby winner. Those closers like Suddenbreakingnews and Mo Tom, who don't start their late run until late in the turn or into the stretch almost never get it done in the Derby. Those two will have to start earlier if they want to win. But Whitmore does that already, so again, he just has to sustain it to the finish. Also, while I haven't seen the video yet, but some of the people I follow on twitter were impressed with the way Whitmore looked this morning. Apparently he was looking healthy, happy, attentive, energetic, but also relaxed. All good signs going into the race.
 
Head down with his ears pricked. Relaxed and attentive to what the rider wants, as he switched leads on command and then also pulled up when only given a little bit of urging to do so. What's not to like? As Jay Privman of DRF said this morning on twitter "Creator looked awesome galloping".

 
Not sure if the following can help anybody narrow the field down anymore when making their wagers, but here's some more stuff in regards to a horse's finishing position in their final prep and with some comparisons with the data I posted back on page 1;

- 10 of the last 16 Derby were won by a horse who had won their final prep
- 14 of the last Derby winners were won by a horse who finished in either 1st or 2nd in their final prep

Out of the two that didn't finish first or second, Giacomo and Mine That Bird, each were on a positive pattern for their racing careers going into the Derby. Giacomo had a combined BSF/BRIS of that was above 95 for his last prep (97.5), had maintain or improve pattern to that BSF/BRIS figure, and also had a late pace that was 95 or better in final prep (101). He just missed by 0.5 of having his best combined BSF/BRIS. He also had a positive thorograph pattern going into the race as well with a (P, P, P) pattern with the (P, P) pattern for his last two preps being tied with the (P, T) pattern as far as producing the most board hitters in the Derby over the last 34 years. Mine That Bird came into the Derby with a maintain or improve pattern to his BSF/BRIS numbers and also ran his best BSF/BRIS combined figure in his last race before the Derby. He also had a positive thorograph pattern as well with a (P, P, T) with the (P, T) pattern over his last two being tied with the (P, P) pattern for hitting the board, but has been the best pattern for the win spot itself. Both had an AWD of the dam sire side that was greater than the sire side if that stat deserves any credence


As far as hitting the board and filling out trifectas go;

- 29 of the 48 horses who hit the board in the last 16 Derbys came into the race after having won their final prep. 8 of 48 board hitters came in after having finished 2nd in their final prep

Out of the 19 horses that hit the board in the Derby after having failed to win their final prep, 6 of them ran a combined BSF/BRIS of 95 or better in their final prep, had a maintain or improve pattern to their BSF/BRIS figure, had run their best BSF/BRIS in their last race, and had a late pace figure of 95 or greater in it. Another 6 of them checked the boxes in three of those categories, while another 4 checked the boxes in two. As far as thorograph goes, 14 of those 19 that didn't win their prep entered the Derby after having run a P or T in their final prep. 13 of the 19 had a positive two race pattern going into the Derby whether that be a (PT), (P, P), (T, T) or (T, P).
 
A combined BSF/BRIS in their final 9F of 95 or greater. A maintain or improve pattern to the combined BSF/BRIS number. Their best BSF/BRIS number coming in their final prep race at 9F. A Brisnet late pace figure of 95 or more in their final prep race at 9F. Running a new top (T) thorograph figure in their last race but not drastically so. Have one of the four most positive thorograph patterns over their last two prep races (P,T), (T, T), (P, P) or (T, P)*

- 9 of the last 16 Derby winners checked the boxes in five or six of those categories
- 15 of the last 16 Derby winners checked the boxes in at least three of them

For this year's runners;

- Exagerrator (6), Creator (6) and Gun Runner (5) check the boxes in at least five of those six categories
- Suddenbreakingnews (4), Nyquist (3), Outwork (3) and Trojan Nation (3) are the only other ones who check the boxes in three or more of those

*Of note, the (P, T) pattern over a horses' final two preps going into the Derby has produced 6 of the past 16 Derby winners, which is double what both the (T, T) and (P, P) patterns have done with those being tied for second most at 3 apiece in that span.
 
I'm actually going to the derby this year, pretty excited.
I haven't been betting horses too long so any tips for derby weekend Fri-Sat would be appreciated!

Has anyone been to a major race before, what can I expect?
 
I'm actually going to the derby this year, pretty excited.
I haven't been betting horses too long so any tips for derby weekend Fri-Sat would be appreciated!

Has anyone been to a major race before, what can I expect?

Lucky you.

I've never attended the Derby or any big race myself. Best I did was going to Assinboine Downs in Winnipeg on occasion in the late 80's/early 90's. But some quick tips from a common sense standpoint;

Avoid the lines as much as you can. There's going to be over 150,000 people, so you want to spend as little time as possible in any lineup whether that be at the windows, concessions, or even the bathroom if you can help it. Bring your own drinks and food. Check in advance what is or isn't allowed in that regards. Get your Derby bets in early in the day. Tons of people are going to be trying to get their bets in between the race before the Derby and the Derby itself, so you want to avoid that traffic jam in the waiting lines at all costs.

Do the work, cash the ticket. Know who and how you are going to bet the Derby before you even get to the track, and then stick with that when making your bets. There's a going to be a lot of people there trying to tip people off on what horses to play in the Derby. Ignore that all. It's just a lot of noise. If you've spent the time handicapping the race beforehand then you've already done a lot more that the vast majority of these "tipsters" have done. Trust your own opinion above all others and don't allow yourself to be talked off a horse(s) that you like. And again, get your Derby bets in early in the day before the mad rush to the window lines.
 
Oh, and bet a horse to win the Derby. A lot of people are going to be trying to get rich betting the tris and supers hoping for the massive payout. But often times those people fail to cash a ticket because they failed to bet a horse to win even though he was the one they liked the most going in. Don't make that mistake. If there's a horse you like more than any other then bet him to win first and foremost. Then you can play around with the exotic wagers after that.
 
Something I noticed for the first time today and it's in regards to the Florida Derby;

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/USA/GP/2016/4/2/14/xpressbet-com-florida-derby-gr-i

Nyquist crosses the line at the 1:53 mark in that video and then the camera pans back to him about 12 seconds later. He's not what caught my eye, though. Look at the horse who has galloped out more than 5 lengths past Nyquist at that point in the video. That's the 2nd place finisher Majesto. You think he's going to want the 10F distance that is the Derby? He's already ran in three 9F races already this year. It's very, very unlikely that he has the talent or ability to win the Derby at this point in time. But he should definitely be able to stay the distance better than the vast majority of these guys and could spice up the tris & supers by grinding away at the end to a 3rd or 4th finish while being north of 30/1. Might be worth a dabble here or there on some of those exotic tickets. Oh, and watch for this guy if he's enters the Belmont. Those with his type of running style usually do quite well in that race as long as the stamina is there for them.
 
From earlier today;

"The best of the gallopers this morning I thought was Creator, who's looked sensational all week. He had a super work on Monday and..."

- Mike Welsch of DRF (3:20 mark of following video in link)

http://www.drf.com/kentucky-derby-workouts

That's been echoed by everybody who has seen him all week (Bruno De Julio, etc). It's even been said by the competition as Dale Romans, who trains Brody's Cause, said that Creator looks as good as anybody out there in the mornings. When asked in an interview who would finish 2nd behind his horse he picked Creator.

 
Creator is looking so good in training that even his competition can't help but be "impressed" by him. fast forward to the 35 second mark to see what I mean;

 
Think I have to make a bet on Creator from all this good info we're getting and just love that horse b/c of the big win we had the other day. You are obviously the expert with the ponies here but I was thinking that it's also a good sign that the horse and jockey not only closed so well but made their way through the traffic from all the way at the back of the pack in the Arkansas. I was thinking that even though it was a smaller field that this could be a good sign that he can maneuver his way through traffic this time around and close well again.
 
Think I have to make a bet on Creator from all this good info we're getting and just love that horse b/c of the big win we had the other day. You are obviously the expert with the ponies here but I was thinking that it's also a good sign that the horse and jockey not only closed so well but made their way through the traffic from all the way at the back of the pack in the Arkansas. I was thinking that even though it was a smaller field that this could be a good sign that he can maneuver his way through traffic this time around and close well again.

Currenty 5d has him +2000 to win. I already bet Whitmore at +3000 but gonna bet Creator here for a little too I think. Said it before but based on Sharkey's data I like Gun Runner too (currently +1200).

Closer to Saturday will probably use these 3 plus maybe pick one other horse for some exotics too. If they were to hit with horses at these odds I'd imagine really big payouts.
 
Think I have to make a bet on Creator from all this good info we're getting and just love that horse b/c of the big win we had the other day. You are obviously the expert with the ponies here but I was thinking that it's also a good sign that the horse and jockey not only closed so well but made their way through the traffic from all the way at the back of the pack in the Arkansas. I was thinking that even though it was a smaller field that this could be a good sign that he can maneuver his way through traffic this time around and close well again.

You've got a good eye my man, because the way Creator came through the traffic is a great sign. Especially in the manner he did since he was pushing a couple of horses out of his path while not breaking stride. Moves such as those rank very high when it comes to the herd dynamics of handicapping races. It's both physically and mentally strong move that very few of the off the pace types in this year's race have shown so far. Creators is a tough horse who's already shown a willingness to take control of the paths he wants to run on.

In addition to Creator, horses like Nyquist, Brody's Cause, and Gun Runner have also shown similar qualities in regards to a willingness to compete for running space. Horses like Mor Spirit and Mohaymen are the opposite from what I've seen. From watching the races of those two they look like they'd rather back down to their competition rather than fight for that running space.
 
Currenty 5d has him +2000 to win. I already bet Whitmore at +3000 but gonna bet Creator here for a little too I think. Said it before but based on Sharkey's data I like Gun Runner too (currently +1200).

Closer to Saturday will probably use these 3 plus maybe pick one other horse for some exotics too. If they were to hit with horses at these odds I'd imagine really big payouts.

+2000 on Creator is excellent value compared to what he likely is next Saturday. I see him in the 12/1 to 15/1 range myself when they go to post. He might even be a touch lower than 12/1 next Saturday based on how he's looked over the past week. I suspect he'll be 4th or 5th come at post time behind Nyquist, Exaggerator and Mohaymen, and in the range of Gun Runner and Mor Spirit.
 
Lucky you.

I've never attended the Derby or any big race myself. Best I did was going to Assinboine Downs in Winnipeg on occasion in the late 80's/early 90's. But some quick tips from a common sense standpoint;

Avoid the lines as much as you can. There's going to be over 150,000 people, so you want to spend as little time as possible in any lineup whether that be at the windows, concessions, or even the bathroom if you can help it. Bring your own drinks and food. Check in advance what is or isn't allowed in that regards. Get your Derby bets in early in the day. Tons of people are going to be trying to get their bets in between the race before the Derby and the Derby itself, so you want to avoid that traffic jam in the waiting lines at all costs.

Do the work, cash the ticket. Know who and how you are going to bet the Derby before you even get to the track, and then stick with that when making your bets. There's a going to be a lot of people there trying to tip people off on what horses to play in the Derby. Ignore that all. It's just a lot of noise. If you've spent the time handicapping the race beforehand then you've already done a lot more that the vast majority of these "tipsters" have done. Trust your own opinion above all others and don't allow yourself to be talked off a horse(s) that you like. And again, get your Derby bets in early in the day before the mad rush to the window lines.

Thanks for the advice Sharkey.

Hope we can keep this thread going past the derby!
 
Currenty 5d has him +2000 to win. I already bet Whitmore at +3000 but gonna bet Creator here for a little too I think. Said it before but based on Sharkey's data I like Gun Runner too (currently +1200).

Closer to Saturday will probably use these 3 plus maybe pick one other horse for some exotics too. If they were to hit with horses at these odds I'd imagine really big payouts.

By the way, thanks for reading what I put together and then analyzing for yourself. It took me quite a few hours to put it all together and I was doing so to maybe help people cash a ticket or two by interpreting it for themselves and making their own picks.
 
Thanks for the advice Sharkey.

Hope we can keep this thread going past the derby!

Cheers man. I hope so too. There's a lot of big races for these guys after the Derby. Preakness, Belmont, and the two big summer races being the Haskell and Travers. Some of these will still be around then and racing in those. There's also a whole lot of big races to bet on for older horses as well that are coming up this spring and summer. Then we have the fall races leading up to Breeders Cup. Always something in the horse racing game to bet on.
 
By the way, thanks for reading what I put together and then analyzing for yourself. It took me quite a few hours to put it all together and I was doing so to maybe help people cash a ticket or two by interpreting it for themselves and making their own picks.

That info was amazing man. As someone who likes to bet the "big" horse races but who just doesn't have the knowledge or time to dig in that deep, it's just awesome to be able to go through that and make some more informed bets. Probably for the first time this year, win or lose, I'll feel like my Derby bets are based on something more than a few random things I read online (where I don't even know if the sources are any good or not).

Appreciate you putting in the work man!
 
That info was amazing man. As someone who likes to bet the "big" horse races but who just doesn't have the knowledge or time to dig in that deep, it's just awesome to be able to go through that and make some more informed bets. Probably for the first time this year, win or lose, I'll feel like my Derby bets are based on something more than a few random things I read online (where I don't even know if the sources are any good or not).

Appreciate you putting in the work man!

Well, I hope this all works out for you and you are able to cash a ticket or two next Saturday, so best of luck.
 
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