Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

Going to the good outside speed horses tomorrow even though I doubt I get the odds on some of these. I'll probably play some $5 exactas by keying these horses if I don't get the odds. May play the exactas even if I do, but I have to see the scratches first;

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Race 1 at Finger Lakes - $15 to win on the #5 Salsa River Girl at 2/1 or better at post time

Race 2 at Finger Lakes - $20 to win on the #7 Algorix at 8/5 or better

Race 4 at Finger Lakes - $15 to win on the #8 Red Rei Rei at 5/2 or better

Race 5 at Finger Lakes - $15 to win on the #7 Sunday Soldier at 9/5 or better

Race 5 at Saratoga - $15 to win on the #6 Missile Bomb at 5/2 or better

Race 8 at Saratoga - $15 to win on the #7 Pat On the Back at 5/2 or better

Race 3 at Louisiana Downs - $10 to win on the #6 Gina's Biscuit at 7/2 or better

Race 4 at Louisiana Downs - $10 to win on the #8 Emily's Entourage at 7/2 or better

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Sharkey said:
Going to the good outside speed horses tomorrow even though I doubt I get the odds on some of these. I'll probably play some $5 exactas by keying these horses if I don't get the odds. May play the exactas even if I do, but I have to see the scratches first;

==========

Race 1 at Finger Lakes - $15 to win on the #5 Salsa River Girl at 2/1 or better at post time

Race 2 at Finger Lakes - $20 to win on the #7 Algorix at 8/5 or better

Race 4 at Finger Lakes - $15 to win on the #8 Red Rei Rei at 5/2 or better

Race 5 at Finger Lakes - $15 to win on the #7 Sunday Soldier at 9/5 or better

Race 5 at Saratoga - $15 to win on the #6 Missile Bomb at 5/2 or better

Race 8 at Saratoga - $15 to win on the #7 Pat On the Back at 5/2 or better

Race 3 at Louisiana Downs - $10 to win on the #6 Gina's Biscuit at 7/2 or better

Race 4 at Louisiana Downs - $10 to win on the #8 Emily's Entourage at 7/2 or better

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Click to expand...

Only made 3 win bets on these guys today and lost them all. I played for the exacta in all the races, though, and also lost them all until the very last race at Louisiana Downs. Got that one at 28/1 and somehow made $25 in profit for the day.
 
I'm going to try for some prices this evening at Hastings. $5 win bets for shits and giggles. Not taking less than 5/1 on any of these and we'll figure out who to bet come post time;

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Race 3 at Hastings (7:00);

#5 Under Par 8/5 - 472.0
#6 Dorys Darlin 7/2 - 429.0
#3 Halloween Queen 3/1 - 422.2
#1 Sharp Contrast 5/1 - 411.3
#2 Veloso Raptor 10/1 - 408.0
#4 Bear 6/1 - 398.4

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Race 4 at Hastings (7:30);

#6 Titochip 5/1 - 435.2
#2 Smart Deal 6/1 - 431.0
#3 A.F. Indy 5/2 - 419.8
#5 Harry's Hammer 12/1 - 411.4
#7 Mr. Finch 7/2 - 399.1
#1 Not Yet 8/1 - 388.0
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Race 5 at Hastings (8:00);

#4 Brave Nation 7/2 - 432.3
#1 Chef 5/2 - 415.6
#6 Random Act 8/1 - 394.5
#5 Speculator 9/2 - 394.3
#3 Stone Carver 5/1 - 388.8
#7 Spokane Gem 5/1 - 388.8
#2 Back Alley Denali 8/1 - 384.5
==========

Race 6 at Hastings (8:30);

#2 Papa Papa Papa 6/1 - 470.0
#1 Prados Way 4/1 - 446.6
#8 Silvertown 9/2 - 433.2
#9 Master Ewen 8/1 - 416.2
#3 Moonman 7/2 - 408.3
#6 Code of Arms 15/1 - 393.0
#4 Mustachio 15/1 - 392.9
#5 Got My Mo 5/1 - 390.2

==========
 
I'll probably be going with the #3 horse in race 3 here Have that one's fair odds at 11/2, and it's currently sitting at 13/1. The #6 is also an option at 6/1 with 9/2 fair odds.
 
Yeah, I went with the #3 even though the #5 is a very likely winner.
 
Already in with #2, #6 over #2, #5, #6 exactas in race 4. Would like to get the #5 home in 2nd as the longest shot in the race. The #2 will probably be my win bet. Currently 7/1 and will-pays say that it should be the right odds in the end. But I'll wait on that win bet for a little bit.
 
Going skinny with a pair of trifectas with the #4 over #1 over #5, #2 here in race 5. I want a meltdown basically.
 
My top 3 horses that race just finished 1st, 3rd, and 2nd (at 21/1) for a 180/1 trifecta. But no, I have to try to get cute don't I.
 
#2 over #1, #8, #9 exactas and trifectas in race 6.
 
Ah, I'll play a tiny super ticket as well with the #2 over #1, #3, #8, #9 since this is a big enough field.
 
An exacta and super is a good way to end the day I'm thinking.
 
Not that the exacta and super paid much compared to what they'd typically pay mind you. But still.
 
That's funny. The #2 beat them by so much that they had to give him his own little window on the screen in the corner just to show him while also showing the rest of the field.
 
Going to look at some races today from Finger Lakes;

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Race 2 at Finger Lakes (10:37);

5- 406.2
8- 395.6
3- 387.1
4- 375.5
6- 371.8
7- 357.3
2- 348.1
1- 346.8

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Race 3 at Finger Lakes (11:04);

4- 387.6
2- 375.4
1- 366.2
7- 336.6
6- 326.7
5- 288.0
3- 283.1

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Race 4 at Finger Lakes (11:31);

7- 385.8
5- 353.4
6- 342.1
1- 318.8
4- 315.3
2- 305.8
8- 297.0
3- 287.4

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Race 5 at Finger Lakes (11:58);

7- 472.5
6- 467.8
2- 467.0
1A- 463.6
4- 459.6
3- 454.2
5- 423.6
1- 397.1

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Race 7 at Finger Lakes (12:52);

3- 437.4
5- 433.9
6- 415.3
2- 394.3
1- 393.6
4- 389.8

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Race 8 at Finger Lakes (1:19);

3- 466.0
9- 440.6
5- 433.3
1- 411.9
4- 404.6
2- 399.1
10- 397.0
7- 388.9
8- 375.8
6- 375.5
11- 358.8

==========
 
From Louisiana Downs;

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Race 1 at Louisiana Downs (1:15);

2- 382.1
5- 365.1
4- 348.4
3- 345.2
8- 341.0
7- 337.4
6- 329.8
1- 319.5

==========

Race 2 at Louisiana Downs (1:44);

5- 444.7
6- 401.8
2- 394.7
7- 385.6
3- 372.3
1- 359.7
4- 338.6

==========

Race 3 at Louisiana Downs (turf) (2:13);

6- 405.4
8- 404.3
5- 402.2
4- 392.0
3- 389.9
2- 386.5
1- 385.5
7- 371.3

==========

Race 4 at Louisiana Downs (2:41);

9- 355.3
5- 352.0
4- 350.5
3- 339.6
7- 322.7
6- 305.3
2- 297.1
1- 288.4
8- 282.7

==========

Race 6 at Louisiana Downs (3:37);

2- 440.2
8- 417.6
4- 410.3
6- 406.8
1- 374.1
3- 368.3
5- 367.4
7- 344.7

==========

Race 7 at Louisiana Downs (turf) (4:05);

11- 375.2
4- 343.7
7- 338.4
10- 319.8
1- 306.6
6- 302.6
3- 302.1
5- 292.2
9- 284.9
8- 272.8
2- 247.3

==========
 
And from Fort Erie;

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Race 2 at Fort Erie (1:48);

3- 368.9
1- 348.7
4- 345.1
2- 340.9
5- 333.1
6- 331.8

==========

Race 5 at Fort Erie (turf) (3:12);

8- 398.5
1- 394.6
2- 383.4
4- 365.7
9- 363.5
6- 354.8
3- 352.6
5- 337.4
7- 301.0

==========

Race 6 at Fort Erie (3:40);

4- 401.3
8- 375.7
5- 349.8
3- 346.0
7- 345.7
1- 322.5
6- 289.7
2- 289.5

==========
 
I'm going to try a 5% cutoff today for all these races to make the decision making process easier. Meaning that a horse has to be within 5% of the top number for me to consider a win bet. 5% of the 2nd ranked number for me to consider an exacta option. 5% of the 3rd ranked for for the trifecta.

e.g.

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Race 2 at Finger Lakes (10:37) ;

5- 406.2 (5/2)
8- 395.6 (7/2)
3- 387.1 (9/2)
4- 375.5
6- 371.8
7- 357.3
2- 348.1
1- 346.8

==========

For this race 385.9 is my win cutoff and 375.8 is my place cutoff. I won't play the trifecta this race, but 367.7 would be my cutoff if I was going to.

I'll win bet one (or even two) of the win contenders within 5% if I get better than fair odds.
 
I'm going to use that 5% guideline for multi-race wagers as well since we have some sequences there.
 
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