Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

Sharkey said:
@BluntTrauma21

I was just waiting for that race at Belmont to end before posting some videos of Ghostzapper. But check him out;







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thanks will do. I googled him and looks like he only had 11 races but won 9 of them if I'm not mistaken. That's really impressive, obv, so excited to watch some races of his, appreciate the links.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
thanks will do. I googled him and looks like he only had 11 races but won 9 of them if I'm not mistaken. That's really impressive, obv, so excited to watch some races of his, appreciate the links.
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Ghostzapper also showed he could beat you in a dogfight as well, as he did to Saint Liam, who I believe won 5 G1 races during his career including the BC Classic in 2005;




But yeah, Ghostzapper didn't really get to complete a full career due to him having chronic foot issues. But what he did accomplish and the sheer talent he showed was quite brilliant.
 
Going with the following:

Justify / Quip, Diamond King, Tenfold, Bravazo
Justify / Quip, Diamond King, Tenfold, Bravazo / Quip, Diamond King, Tenfold, Bravazo

This along with my little Diamond King to win bet. Kind of forcing it here but I'm afraid I'll upset the betting gods if I don't make a play after how well they treated me on the Derby. GL all.
 
I'm going to need a lot better than 8/5 on this #6 horse coming up in 10 minutes at Emerald Downs. Was 4/1 on the morning line and was hoping for something close to that.
 
t6p said:
Going with the following:

Justify / Quip, Diamond King, Tenfold, Bravazo
Justify / Quip, Diamond King, Tenfold, Bravazo / Quip, Diamond King, Tenfold, Bravazo

This along with my little Diamond King to win bet. Kind of forcing it here but I'm afraid I'll upset the betting gods if I don't make a play after how well they treated me on the Derby. GL all.
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T going for the kill shot. I like it!
 
That pisses me off. I bet the Emerald Downs horse as they were in the gates at 5/2 and it wins at 6/5. At least it won. But still. That's annoying as fuck when you're betting one price and getting something not even close to it.
 
Justify/Good Magic finish top 2 (either order): +125
Any other horse finishes in top 2: -165

I'm kinda tempted by the "any other horse" prop. I know these are the best 2 horses, but man doesn't it seem like way more often than not that one of the two favorites has a bad day and finishes out of the money? Esp when there's evidently a realistic chance Good Magic burns out trying to match Justify's pace? Any value here, or no?
 
mkess101 said:
Justify/Good Magic finish top 2 (either order): +125
Any other horse finishes in top 2: -165

I'm kinda tempted by the "any other horse" prop. I know these are the best 2 horses, but man doesn't it seem like way more often than not that one of the two favorites has a bad day and finishes out of the money? Esp when there's evidently a realistic chance Good Magic burns out trying to match Justify's pace? Any value here, or no?
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It is a rare enough when the two best horses also end up finishing 1st and 2nd, Mike. You're bang on there. Favourites only win races about 35-40% of the time, although odds-on favourites like Justify do win more often than that. Saying that I think you may find more value betting the exactas, though, if you can wait for about an hour or so to see what the exacta will pays will be.
 
t6p said:
Going with the following:

Justify / Quip, Diamond King, Tenfold, Bravazo
Justify / Quip, Diamond King, Tenfold, Bravazo / Quip, Diamond King, Tenfold, Bravazo

This along with my little Diamond King to win bet. Kind of forcing it here but I'm afraid I'll upset the betting gods if I don't make a play after how well they treated me on the Derby. GL all.
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What do the /‘s and then the commas mean? I know nothing about horse racing but this makes even less sense to me lol.

Thanks in advance.
 
timmyclax22 said:
What do the /‘s and then the commas mean? I know nothing about horse racing but this makes even less sense to me lol.

Thanks in advance.
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The / are to separate the positions T is playing them in, Timmy. i.e. His structure there says that only Justify can win for him, then he's playing Quip, Diamond King, Tenfold, Bravazo to finish in both 2nd and 3rd in exactas and tris.
 
Sharkey said:
The / are to separate the positions T is playing them in, Timmy. i.e. His structure there says that only Justify can win for him, then he's playing Quip, Diamond King, Tenfold, Bravazo to finish in both 2nd and 3rd in exactas and tris.
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So justify has to win and then any of the other combo of horses in 2nd and 3rd?
 
Sharkey said:
It is a rare enough when the two best horses also end up finishing 1st and 2nd, Mike. You're bang on there. Favourites only win races about 35-40% of the time, although odds-on favourites like Justify do win more often than that. Saying that I think you may find more value betting the exactas, though, if you can wait for about an hour or so to see what the exacta will pays will be.
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Is there a place where you can see current track odds? I'm asking because I'm seeing Justify being shown on TV now at 2-5. But right now on 5d you can bet Justify at -200 (1-2) in the sportsbook as opposed to the racebook. If track odds are worse than what's offered in the sportsbook, makes more sense to bet in the sportsbook. But track odds change so it's hard to know.
 
mkess101 said:
Is there a place where you can see current track odds? I'm asking because I'm seeing Justify being shown on TV now at 2-5. But right now on 5d you can bet Justify at -200 (1-2) in the sportsbook as opposed to the racebook. If track odds are worse than what's offered in the sportsbook, makes more sense to bet in the sportsbook. But track odds change so it's hard to know.
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Yeah, I got you, Mike.

http://www.drf.com/live_odds/winodds/track/PIM/USA/13/D

Click on the probably pays heading for the exacta payouts if you're still interested in making one of those type of plays.
 
timmyclax22 said:
So justify has to win and then any of the other combo of horses in 2nd and 3rd?
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Yep.

T is basically saying;

Justify to win / Quip to finish 2nd, Diamond King to finish 2nd, Tenfold to finish 2nd, Bravazo to finish 2nd / those same four there to finish 3rd

He's playing 4 potential combinations in the exacta and 12 combinations in the trifecta. But he needs Justify to win first and foremost.
 
I'm in with a couple of $5 exactas with Justify over Diamond King, Tenfold. That's all.
 
Man Diamond King winning would be great.

I have some exacta and trifecta combos with Justify, Diamond King, Bravazo, and Good Magic too. A couple superfectas with those as well.
 
mkess101 said:
Man Diamond King winning would be great.

I have some exacta and trifecta combos with Justify, Diamond King, Bravazo, and Good Magic too. A couple superfectas with those as well.
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You're getting some great odds compared to what the pools are offering if he can somehow pull it off. The 50/1 you got on him is triple the 17/1 he is in the pools right now.
 
Oh wow. I just noticed that Diamond King's jockey is wearing the same silks as Afleet Alex did back in the 2005 Preakness when he fell to his knees and yet still won going away.

 
It's about that time. Thanks for all the knowledge and info you've dropped as you always do @Sharkey we all appreciate it more than you know. GL with your plays boys!
 
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