Elections Kamala Harris for POTUS

[Rational Poster]

Fact Check - False

"On its final poll released Nov. 7, the day before Election Day, Rasmussen had Hillary Clinton up 2 points on Donald Trump. Clinton won the popular vote by 1 percentage point, even though Donald Trump beat her on electoral votes.

No other pollster tracked by RealClearPolitics came as close to the final results."

https://thehill.com/media/306721-rasmussen-calls-itself-most-accurate-pollster-of-2016/

"Scott Rasmussen’s final national poll, conducted October 29-31, 2020, shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading by seven points–51% to 44%. The race has been remarkably consistent. Biden has been at 51% in five consecutive weekly polls."

Election Polls 2020

Note: Neither Scott Rasmussen, ScottRasmussen.com, nor RMG Research, Inc. have any affiliation with Rasmussen Reports. While Scott Rasmussen founded that firm, he left more than seven years ago and has had no involvement since that time. Scott Rasmussen's final national poll, conducted October...

scottrasmussen.com

So your evidence that they're the most accurate agency is that they got it wrong in 2016?

 

[Rational Poster]

12 people from every state determines an 'accurate & scientific' poll. No wonder why so many been wrong in the 2016 & 2020 elections.

Note, that +5 Kamala poll, its for just registered voters, not likely voters.

Tell me you don't understand the concepts of scientific polling without telling me you don't understand the concepts of scientific polling.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

So your evidence that they're the most accurate agency is that they got it wrong in 2016?

*Sigh* Rational, you're smarter than this.
Go ahead and find the polling agency that perfectly predicted the 1% popular vote margin in 2016.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

Tell me you don't understand the concepts of scientific polling without telling me you don't understand the concepts of scientific polling.

Which scientists came up for the criteria of 'scientific' polling, Rational?

Or is it a meaningless adjective being used to make a polling method more authoritarive?

Which 'Scientific polls' were completely wrong in 2016 & 2020 that said Hillary & Biden has 5+ leads in the popular vote in the days before election day? Are they ashamed they were so wrong? Have they changed their standards to be more accurate for the 2020 polls?

 

[Rational Poster]

Which scientists came up for the criteria of 'scientific' polling, Rational?

Or is it a meaningless adjective being used to make a polling method more authoritarive?

Which 'Scientific polls' were completely wrong in 2016 & 2020 that said Hillary & Biden has 5+ leads in the popular vote in the days before election day? Are they ashamed they were so wrong? Have they changed their standards to be more accurate for the 2020 polls?

 

[GearSolidMetal]

Concession accepted.

 

[Rational Poster]

*Sigh* Rational, you're smarter than this.
Go ahead and find the polling agency that perfectly predicted the 1% popular vote margin in 2016.

Almost all of them.

 

[Rational Poster]

Concession accepted.

I'm not conceding, genuinely laughing at how confidently wrong you are about this.

 

[Rational Poster]

Rasmussen Reports

​

Methodology​

"Data for Rasmussen Reports survey research is collected using an automated polling methodology.

Generally speaking, the automated survey process is identical to that of traditional, operator-assisted research firms such as Gallup, Harris, and Roper. However, automated polling systems use a single, digitally-recorded, voice to conduct the interview while traditional firms rely on phone banks, boiler rooms, and operator-assisted technology.

For tracking surveys such as the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, the automated technology ensures that every respondent hears exactly the same question, from the exact same voice, asked with the exact same inflection every single time.

All Rasmussen Reports' survey questions are digitally recorded and fed to a calling program that determines question order, branching options, and other factors. Calls are placed to randomly-selected phone numbers through a process that ensures appropriate geographic representation. Typically, calls are placed from 5 pm to 9 pm local time during the week. Saturday calls are made from 11 am to 6 pm local time and Sunday calls from 1 pm to 9 pm local time.

To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel.

After the surveys are completed, the raw data is processed through a weighting program to ensure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age, race, gender, political party, and other factors. The processing step is required because different segments of the population answer the phone in different ways. For example, women answer the phone more than men, older people are home more and answer more than younger people, and rural residents typically answer the phone more frequently than urban residents.
"

Translation - We just copy everyone else's polling data and then add our bias

 

[Fedor>Cain]

Trump not surprisingly is fuming about kamalas crowd size

LOL

I think we all had Trump getting triggered over Kamala's crowds on our bingo cards.

If they don't start trolling him over the crowd sizes, then somebody on her campaign staff needs to be fired.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

I'm not conceding, genuinely laughing at how confidently wrong you are about this.

And you're not bothering to explain with links how & why I'm 'wrong' probably because you can't.

 

[Rational Poster]

And you're not bothering to explain with links how & why I'm 'wrong' probably because you can't.

It's more fun to watch you do this honestly and further discredit you.

 

[ShadowRun]

 

[GearSolidMetal]

Translation - We just copy everyone else's polling data and then add our bias

Even what you posted proves this incorrect -

"All Rasmussen Reports' survey questions are digitally recorded and fed to a calling program that determines question order, branching options, and other factors. Calls are placed to randomly-selected phone numbers through a process that ensures appropriate geographic representation. Typically, calls are placed from 5 pm to 9 pm local time during the week. Saturday calls are made from 11 am to 6 pm local time and Sunday calls from 1 pm to 9 pm local time.

And all the polls in 2016 & 2020 that were very wrong, which the MSM put a spotlight on in the days prior to the election to encourage Democrats to vote & discourage Republicans all oversample Democrats more than they're represented in actual voting ratios.

Rasmussen evens out the over-sampling of Democrats to be more accurate to the most recent Presidential Elections and they've proven to be more accurate than all the poling agencies.

 

[NickNick]

Neither side has laid out a plan on bring down grocery prices. The nearest thing I have heard from Trump is that he is going to start drill for more oil to bring down cost of transportation. This sounds all well and good until you realize that the cost groceries has far out paced the cost of oil/gas, the correlation isn't there.. This problem exists EVERYWHERE, we are supposed to believe that either side has some magic wand solution that no other country has figured out?

 

[Rational Poster]

Even what you posted proves this incorrect -

"All Rasmussen Reports' survey questions are digitally recorded and fed to a calling program that determines question order, branching options, and other factors. Calls are placed to randomly-selected phone numbers through a process that ensures appropriate geographic representation. Typically, calls are placed from 5 pm to 9 pm local time during the week. Saturday calls are made from 11 am to 6 pm local time and Sunday calls from 1 pm to 9 pm local time.

And all the polls in 2016 & 2020 that were very wrong, which the MSM put a spotlight on in the days prior to the election to encourage Democrats to vote & discourage Republicans all oversample Democrats more than they're represented in actual voting ratios.

Rasmussen evens out the over-sampling of Democrats to be more accurate to the most recent Presidential Elections and they've proven to be more accurate than all the poling agencies.

Same polling methods, same questions, same sample sizes, lmao

The only difference is they are proudly and overtly biased.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

The only difference is they are proudly and overtly biased

...and most correct in predicting actual election results.

 

[Rational Poster]

...and most correct in predicting actual election results.

They didn't even predict the correct winner in 2016, weren't even closest wrong ones either. Marist was the only poll to correctly predict Trump to win in 2016 and it was just by +1.

Your source for them being the most accurate is literally a quote from themselves, lmao.

 

[Andy Capp]

*Sigh* Rational, you're smarter than this.
Go ahead and find the polling agency that perfectly predicted the 1% popular vote margin in 2016.

LOL and what was their margin of error?

 

[GearSolidMetal]

LOL and what was their margin of error?

In the most recent poll...

"The survey of 1,794 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on August 1 and 4-7, 2024 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence."

Election 2024: Trump 49%, Harris 44%, RFK Jr. 3%

Former President Donald Trump has maintained his lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, and support for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent campaign continues to decline.

www.rasmussenreports.com

In the final Rasmussen poll before the election, which had Biden up by 1%, which was the margin he won the popular vote -

"The survey of 1,500 Likely Voters was conducted October 28-29 and November 1, 2020 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence."

White House Watch

President Trump and Democrat Joe Biden are in a near tie in Rasmussen Reports’ final White House Watch survey before Election Day.

www.rasmussenreports.com