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Jones vs Reyes --- Analysis done by expert AI

Round 3 Analysis:

Striking: This was the closest round. Reyes landed power shots early, but Jones’s volume and efficiency improved, with a notable increase in leg kicks and jabs. He defended better and retaliated with steady strikes, aiming to wear down Reyes.

Grappling: Jones attempted a few takedowns, but Reyes defended well, preventing any significant ground control. Jones’s attempts did shift the momentum slightly.

Octagon Control: Jones started pressuring forward more consistently, showing control and keeping Reyes moving backward at times.

Aggression: Reyes was aggressive but less effective as Jones’s pressure mounted.

Stats Summary:

Reyes: Effective early but waned slightly.

Jones: Built momentum, controlled movement, slight edge in effective grappling.


Score: 10-9 Jones (close round)
Few issues with this round 3 analysis:
First, Striking.
Reyes "landed the power shots, but then Jones' volume improved with jabs and leg kicks?" But those are jabs and leg kicks. They only overtake power shots if there's more of them, but by the end of the round, Reyes still had the greater volume overall. So if that's the case, then the AI is noting that the power strikes go to Reyes, that Jones was landing the less impactful strikes as the round continued, and did not outstrike Reyes in any measurable way. So the striking is still in Dom's corner. The post round highlights show 3 things, Jon overextended on a oblique kick and eating a head kick for his troubles (mostly toes, but the sweat explosion tells you it landed), Dom landing a flush body kick, and Dom ducking Jones jab to load up on an uppercut that distorting Jon's face. The striking is just unarguably Dom's.

It gives Jones an edge in effective grappling, despite the fact it says Dom prevented any significant ground control. This is because Jon didn't have any effective grappling. There was maybe 20 seconds of clinch against the cage, but that didn't result in any kind of damage or takedowns, as the AI notes.

Aggression: Reyes was aggressive, but less effective? How is that possible when Dom both landed AND threw more strikes? And the harder strikes? AND he was more accurate with those strikes, so in what way is Jon more aggressive other than octagon control? But then, having said that, although I'd agree Jon generally kept the center of the octagon, he was moving back any time Dom was striking and Dom literally had Jon turn and run from him that round.

None of this works. All of this is just giving Jon points for doing better than before. Even with Dom slowing down, he's still ahead.

*edit* just watched it. Still obviously a Dom round. Fun note: Jones also throws a deliberate knee into Dom's thigh after the bell and Mirg smiles about it when Dom protests
 
Last edited:
Well, I guess I would have to go back and watch round 3 since AI is saying it was so close. I remember Reyes clearly winning the first 3 and Jones clearly winning the last 2. Perhaps it does all come down to the 3rd round
It depends on which deluded Jones fan you ask. Some say round 3, but some will tell you, "No way, it was round 2 that Jones won. Dom won round 3." And then some psychos will even say it was round 1. It's just whatever extra round they think they can get away with to make themselves feel warm about the robbery
 
New analysis from AI adjusting for that fact (round 3 grappling)



Final Comprehensive Analysis of Jon Jones vs. Dominick Reyes


---

Introduction

The fight between Jon Jones and Dominick Reyes at UFC 247 was a highly competitive and closely contested bout that sparked significant debate among fans and analysts. To provide a meticulous and objective analysis, each round will en examined in detail, incorporating all available data, statistics, and the UFC's official scoring criteria as of February 2020.


---

UFC Scoring Criteria

The UFC utilizes the 10-point must system, with the following prioritized criteria:

1. Effective Striking/Grappling


2. Effective Aggressiveness


3. Fighting Area Control (Octagon Control)



Effective Striking/Grappling: Primary factor; focuses on the impact and number of legal strikes or grappling maneuvers.

Effective Aggressiveness: Secondary; considered when Effective Striking/Grappling is equal.

Fighting Area Control: Tertiary; used when both prior criteria are equal.



---

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Round 1

Statistics:

Significant Strikes:

Jones: 17 of 26 (65% accuracy)

Reyes: 23 of 51 (45% accuracy)


Total Strikes:

Jones: 17

Reyes: 23


Takedowns:

Neither fighter attempted a takedown.



Analysis:

Effective Striking:

Reyes landed more significant strikes with higher volume.

He connected with impactful shots, including a left hand that momentarily staggered Jones.


Effective Grappling:

Not applicable.


Effective Aggressiveness:

Reyes was the aggressor, initiating most exchanges.


Fighting Area Control:

Reyes dictated the pace and positioning.



Scoring:

10-9 Reyes



---

Round 2

Statistics:

Significant Strikes:

Jones: 22 of 35 (63% accuracy)

Reyes: 27 of 56 (48% accuracy)


Total Strikes:

Jones: 22

Reyes: 27


Takedowns:

Neither fighter attempted a takedown.



Analysis:

Effective Striking:

Reyes continued to outland Jones in significant strikes.

Both fighters had moments of impact, but Reyes maintained a slight edge in volume.


Effective Grappling:

Not applicable.


Effective Aggressiveness:

Reyes sustained his offensive output.


Fighting Area Control:

Relatively even.



Scoring:

10-9 Reyes



---

Round 3

Statistics:

Significant Strikes:

Jones: 19 of 33 (57% accuracy)

Reyes: 21 of 59 (36% accuracy)


Total Strikes:

Jones: 19

Reyes: 21


Takedowns:

Jones: Attempted 1 takedown (unsuccessful)

Reyes: Successfully defended the takedown



Analysis:

Effective Striking:

Reyes landed slightly more significant strikes, but with lower accuracy.

Jones had higher accuracy and landed shots that had a more noticeable reaction.

Reyes landed strikes while on the defensive, often moving backward, many of which didn't stop Jones from keeping the pressure.

The strikes from Jones had higher accuracy and appeared to have a more visible effect on Reyes, who showed signs of fatigue (e.g., open mouth breathing), while Jones didn't show visible signs of being hurt, remaining composed and moving forwards.


Effective Grappling:

Jones attempted a takedown, which Reyes defended effectively.

Reyes landed an elbow upon separation, but its impact was moderate.


Effective Aggressiveness:

Jones increased his forward pressure, controlling the pace.

Reyes was retreating more, focusing on counter-striking.


Fighting Area Control:

Jones controlled the center of the Octagon.

Reyes circled the perimeter, creating angles but ceding space.



Scoring Considerations:

Effective Striking/Grappling:

Volume vs. Impact:

Reyes landed a slightly higher number of strikes.

Jones's strikes came with higher accuracy and when moving forward.


Quality over Quantity:

Many judges prioritize the effectiveness and impact of strikes over sheer volume.


Defensive Striking:

Reyes's strikes while retreating may be seen as less effective.



Effective Aggressiveness and Control:

Jones's forward pressure and Octagon control are significant.

Reyes's defensive posture could be viewed as less favorable under these criteria.



Scoring:

Option 1: 10-9 Jones

Based on effective aggression, control, and the higher accuracy and circumstances of strikes, based on the circumstances they were landed and a few but noticeable reaction they got from Reyes.


Option 2: 10-9 Reyes

Based on higher strike count and few but significant offensive strikes when rushing forwards.



Final Determination for Round 3:

Given the closeness of the round and considering that Jones's strikes came mostly from instances of forwards pressure, while many of Reyes' came from trying to get into a more comfortable octagon position, along with Jones' overall bigger pace control, Round 3 might be more objectively scored as 10-9 Jones. Very close round. Up for debate.


---

Round 4

Statistics:

Significant Strikes:

Jones: 26 of 35 (74% accuracy)

Reyes: 14 of 36 (39% accuracy)


Total Strikes:

Jones: 26

Reyes: 14


Takedowns:

Jones: 1 of 2 attempts successful

Reyes: No attempts



Analysis:

Effective Striking:

Jones outstruck Reyes significantly in both volume and accuracy.

His strikes appeared to have more impact.


Effective Grappling:

Jones secured a takedown, advancing his position briefly.


Effective Aggressiveness:

Jones maintained offensive pressure.


Fighting Area Control:

Jones dominated the center.



Scoring:

10-9 Jones



---

Round 5

Statistics:

Significant Strikes:

Jones: 28 of 38 (74% accuracy)

Reyes: 19 of 43 (44% accuracy)


Total Strikes:

Jones: 28

Reyes: 19


Takedowns:

Jones: 1 of 3 attempts successful

Reyes: No attempts



Analysis:

Effective Striking:

Jones continued to outland Reyes with higher accuracy and impact.


Effective Grappling:

Jones secured another takedown.


Effective Aggressiveness:

Jones was the aggressor, pressing the action.


Fighting Area Control:

Jones controlled the Octagon.



Scoring:

10-9 Jones



---

Final Scoring

Round 1: 10-9 Reyes

Round 2: 10-9 Reyes

Round 3: 10-9 Jones (based on impact, aggression, and control, but a close and debatable round)

Round 4: 10-9 Jones

Round 5: 10-9 Jones


Total Score:

Jon Jones: 48

Dominick Reyes: 47



---

Final Verdict

Objective Assessment:

Rounds 1 and 2:

Reyes won these rounds with higher volume and effective striking.


Round 3:

Extremely close; however, considering:

Jones's strikes came mostly from forward pressure and got few but more noticeable reactions from Reyes, who started to slow down.

Jones displayed effective aggression and Octagon control.

Reyes's strikes were mostly delivered while retreating and didn't visibly slow or hurt Jones, who didn't show as visible signs of slowing down.


Edge to Jon Jones due to overall effectiveness. The amount of significant strikes favors Reyes, but that is not the sole criteria when evaluating effective striking, which might bring additional factors into consideration.


Rounds 4 and 5:

Jones clearly won these rounds with superior striking, aggression, and control.



Conclusion:

Jon Jones edged out the victory by winning Rounds 3 to 5.

The decision aligns with the UFC's scoring criteria, emphasizing effective striking (impact over volume), effective aggression, and Octagon control.



---


The bout was exceptionally close, particularly due to the competitiveness of Round 3.

Both fighters had strong moments, and the outcome hinged on a single round that could reasonably be scored for either fighter.


Judging Criteria Application:

Judges must interpret and apply the criteria, which can be subjective, especially in close rounds.

Effective striking considers impact, circumstances and damage, over sheer numbers.

Effective aggression and control are valid secondary criteria when the primary is close and debatable.


Reasonable Decision:

Awarding the fight to Jon Jones is justifiable under the UFC's scoring criteria.

The judges' decision reflects a valid interpretation of the fights dynamics.



Conclusion:

The fight was close enough that awarding the victory to either fighter would have been reasonable.




---

Final Thoughts

Acknowledging the Controversy:

The debate over the decision highlights the challenges in judging close fights.

Fans and analysts can reasonably disagree on the outcome due to the subjective elements involved.


Importance of Clear Rounds:

Fighters in close bouts benefit from decisively winning rounds to avoid ambiguous outcomes.

In this fight, Reyes started strong but could not maintain the same level of effectiveness in the later rounds.





---

Summary:

Based on a meticulous analysis of all rounds, considering all data, statistics, and the UFC's scoring criteria, Jon Jones is the winner, having edged out Dominick Reyes by winning the final three rounds. While the fight was exceptionally close and the decision could go reasonably either way, it is within the criteria of the judging system.

---

Note: This assessment aims to be as objective and thorough as possible, incorporating all relevant information and adhering strictly to the official scoring criteria to provide a fair evaluation of the fight.



-----



Well, another breakdown. It acknowledged the fight was close enough, and was subjective, but it still gave JJ as slight edge.
 
Few issues with this round 3 analysis:
First, Striking.
Reyes "landed the power shots, but then Jones' volume improved with jabs and leg kicks?" But those are jabs and leg kicks. They only overtake power shots if there's more of them, but by the end of the round, Reyes still had the greater volume overall. So if that's the case, then the AI is noting that the power strikes go to Reyes, that Jones was landing the less impactful strikes as the round continued, and did not outstrike Reyes in any measurable way. So the striking is still in Dom's corner. The post round highlights show 3 things, Jon overextended on a oblique kick and eating a head kick for his troubles (mostly toes, but the sweat explosion tells you it landed), Dom landing a flush body kick, and Dom ducking Jones jab to load up on an uppercut that distorting Jon's face. The striking is just unarguably Dom's.

It gives Jones an edge in effective grappling, despite the fact it says Dom prevented any significant ground control. This is because Jon didn't have any effective grappling. There was maybe 20 seconds of clinch against the cage, but that didn't result in any kind of damage or takedowns, as the AI notes.

Aggression: Reyes was aggressive, but less effective? How is that possible when Dom both landed AND threw more strikes? And the harder strikes? AND he was more accurate with those strikes, so in what way is Jon more aggressive other than octagon control? But then, having said that, although I'd agree Jon generally kept the center of the octagon, he was moving back any time Dom was striking and Dom literally had Jon turn and run from him that round.

None of this works. All of this is just giving Jon points for doing better than before. Even with Dom slowing down, he's still ahead.

*edit* just watched it. Still obviously a Dom round. Fun note: Jones also throws a deliberate knee into Dom's thigh after the bell and Mirg smiles about it when Dom protests
Look the new updated post. What you think?

I'm curious tbh, I'm up for debating, I've no agenda to be clear and I know you're very well informed.
 
man, haters are still salty years later!

"Theres gotta be something! Let me revisit that Reyes fight he won. Again. Damnit"

giphy.gif
 
Look the new updated post. What you think?

I'm curious tbh, I'm up for debating, I've no agenda to be clear and I know you're very well informed.
I was just getting through it after I posted. Here's what I've come to. *edit* aw shit, there was a 3rd analysis? Goddamn, I've been trying to get to sleep, haha. I'll have to get to it later, but again I'm already seeing things like, incorrectly prioritizing scoring criteria, coming up with different strike numbers, and now again admitting Dom landed more impactful strikes than being relatively the same. I'll have to come back

### **Detailed Analysis of Round 3**

**Statistics:**

- **Significant Strikes:**
- **Jones:** 19 of 33 (57% accuracy)
- **Reyes:** 21 of 59 (35% accuracy)
- **Total Strikes:**
- **Jones:** 19
- **Reyes:** 21
Don't know where these numbers came from, cuz they're not the numbers I see from tallies

- **Volume vs. Accuracy:**
- *Reyes* threw more strikes but landed at a lower percentage.
- *Jones* was more accurate with his strikes.
- **Impact:**
- Neither fighter landed strikes that significantly hurt the other.
- The strikes were relatively equal in impact and damage.
The impacts and damage were not relatively equal. It was just noted that Dom scored the power shots. And additionally, accuracy is not a part of MMA judging. As a matter of fact, it's been far more the precedent (wrongly, imo) that more thrown strikes nets people more score, not less, because of aggression. The AI is scoring based neither on how fights should be judged or how they are judged.

**Effective Aggressiveness:**

- Both fighters had moments of aggression.
- *Jones* began to press forward more consistently.
- *Reyes* showed a slight decrease in activity compared to earlier rounds.
But you don't score the round compared to other rounds. Again, this is just giving Jon points for doing better than before, not because he actually did well

### **Scoring Considerations**

**Primary Criterion—Effective Striking/Grappling:**

- The effectiveness of strikes is measured not just by the number landed but also by their impact and efficiency.
- *Reyes* landed slightly more significant strikes.
- *Jones* had higher accuracy and began to land more meaningful strikes.

**Secondary Criteria (if the primary is equal):**

- **Effective Aggressiveness:**
- *Jones* was increasingly aggressive, moving forward and initiating exchanges.
- **Fighting Area Control:**
- *Jones* controlled the center and limited *Reyes*' movement.
There is no "primary criteria." This fight took place in Texas that did not adopt the new rules. All parts of the fight are judged together. The AI is basing it's score off of incorrect info
 
It depends on which deluded Jones fan you ask. Some say round 3, but some will tell you, "No way, it was round 2 that Jones won. Dom won round 3." And then some psychos will even say it was round 1. It's just whatever extra round they think they can get away with to make themselves feel warm about the robbery
It wasn't a robbery. It was a close fight. The second and third round were close, and the third one was really close. A robbery would be a one sided fight. It was not. 2 round were won by JJ. One by Reyes and 2 were tough, but Reyes ashed out in 2... But 3 had it even closer to the point I don't know. I think it could be scored to JJ as well. Far from a robbery. It was a close fight, like every close fight that there is. Officially, JJ won, so there is no need to feel warm when I think JJ fans can see what is a complete beat down from a fight that is close.
 
I was just getting through it after I posted. Here's what I've come to. *edit* aw shit, there was a 3rd analysis? Goddamn, I've been trying to get to sleep, haha. I'll have to get to it later, but again I'm already seeing things like, incorrectly prioritizing scoring criteria, coming up with different strike numbers, and now again admitting Dom landed more impactful strikes than being relatively the same. I'll have to come back


Don't know where these numbers came from, cuz they're not the numbers I see from tallies


The impacts and damage were not relatively equal. It was just noted that Dom scored the power shots. And additionally, accuracy is not a part of MMA judging. As a matter of fact, it's been far more the precedent (wrongly, imo) that more thrown strikes nets people more score, not less, because of aggression. The AI is scoring based neither on how fights should be judged or how they are judged.


But you don't score the round compared to other rounds. Again, this is just giving Jon points for doing better than before, not because he actually did well


There is no "primary criteria." This fight took place in Texas that did not adopt the new rules. All parts of the fight are judged together. The AI is basing it's score off of incorrect info
The primary criteria was debatable. That's why there are other criteria. If a primary criteria is debatable, judges may look into other forms to draw it in
 
if he won "clearly" as you say he should have already the belt
but captain obvious says he lost

jones almost crippled him
proceeds to look bad the next fights

lemme remind you he fought the worst D version the unmotivated version of jones
still cant beat jones
That's right. I mean, if the fight was REALLY obvious, then you could, idk, take the fight back to the ABC for a training course on judges and have 18 judges from across the state all look at the fight simultaneously for the course on how to score fights and have all 18 judges present score the fight unanimously for Dom.



..oh shit, wait.
 
The primary criteria was debatable. That's why there are other criteria. If a primary criteria is debatable, judges may look into other forms to draw it in
No, there is no "primary criteria" in Texas. They don't have that scoring guide.

And that's also not quite how that works, even if the criteria was in play. It must be "even," not just "debatable"
 
That's right. I mean, if the fight was REALLY obvious, then you could, idk, take the fight back to the ABC and have 18 judges look at the fight simultaneously when they train on how to score fights and have all 18 judges present score the fight unanimously for Dom.



..oh shit, wait.
No one is saying the fight was obvious. Quite the opposite, they're saying it's close enough that the word robbery is farfetched
 
No one is saying the fight was obvious. Quite the opposite, they're saying it's close enough that the word robbery is farfetched
I am, because it was. I was just being sarcastic with Orca cuz he's usually a big dumb idiot.

Like I said, they DID do that. The ABC, who is an overseeing regulatory body for the commissions who writes the guidance on judging and rules ran a course with the CSAC, had 18 judges all view it, and all 18 unanimously scored it for Dom. During the discussion, the judges perceived that Reyes was the more effective striker, and should have won. Big John concluded their response and said, “He won the first three rounds.”
 
No, there is no "primary criteria" in Texas. They don't have that scoring guide.

And that's also not quite how that works, even if the criteria was in play. It must be "even," not just "debatable"
Nope, judges were not required to find effective striking/grappling to be completely "even" before considering effective aggressiveness or cage control... you can look into the old rules, the judges also had the discretion to weigh all criteria collectively and did not require the primary criteria to be exactly "even" before considering secondary factors like effective aggressiveness and cage control—in close or debatable rounds, such as Round 3 of the fight, judges could reasonably factor in aggression and control to make their decision, so while partially true, it's worth mentioning that judges could and did consider all aspects of a fighter's performance.
 
I am, because it was. I was just being sarcastic with Orca cuz he's usually a big dumb idiot.

Like I said, they DID do that. The ABC, who is an overseeing regulatory body for the commissions who writes the guidance on judging and rules ran a course with the CSAC, had 18 judges all view it, and all 18 unanimously scored it for Dom. During the discussion, the judges perceived that Reyes was the more effective striker, and should have won. Big John concluded their response and said, “He won the first three rounds.”
Except it wasn't obvious? There are many analysts that told the fight was even and could go to Jon Jones as well. I mean, Joe Rogan said that many analysts he talked to said it all boiled down to round 3 and that a case could be made for each fighter. I've no means to go searching it now, but a robbery would be a blatant one sided fight. It wasn't. I've watched round 3 over and over and could not see a clear edge on either side. Even round 2 wasn't that much clear, but it was more clear. The round is close enough that there is leeway to interpretation.

Effective striking isn't only getting on a good jab to the body. Reyes did that a lot while trying to create angles from Jon Jones, who was getting into favored positions in the octagon. Jon Jones, most times, didn't take step back from many of those strikes, they came as a way for Reyes to get into a better cage position. Effective striking could be valid when many from JJ came in moments he had Reyes close to the fence and landed jabs and hooks while Reyes was retreating, or spinning back kicks that drew more visible reactions. Most of Reyes' significant strikes came when rushing towards Jones, but those accounted for few bursts moments, in comparison to a more methodical striking that came when Reyes was moving backwards when landed by Jones, while Reyes landed many in the backfoot trying to get out of uncomfortable positions, and that, most, did not have significant impact on Jon Jones.

The striking doesn't need to be even. The effective striking can be debatable, actually, even under older rules.
 
Nope, judges were not required to find effective striking/grappling to be completely "even" before considering effective aggressiveness or cage control... you can look into the old rules, the judges also had the discretion to weigh all criteria collectively and did not require the primary criteria to be exactly "even" before considering secondary factors like effective aggressiveness and cage control—in close or debatable rounds, such as Round 3 of the fight, judges could reasonably factor in aggression and control to make their decision, so while partially true, it's worth mentioning that judges could and did consider all aspects of a fighter's performance.
Right, I thought you were still thinking it was the new rules where the requirement is "even" before moving on.

But even then, with the old rules, it's not "if it's debatable, then go to these." It's just generally all thrown in a bucket. It says "effective striking, effective grappling, fighting area control, and effective aggressiveness/defense." It doesn't dictate any primary.

And I've repeatedly put the evidence as to why almost none of the criteria favor Jon. Dom is ahead in nearly every measurable category, other than keeping the center of the cage.
 
"""Effective Striking

Definition in Scoring Criteria:

Effective striking is a qualitative assessment used by judges to evaluate the impact, effectiveness, and damage of strikes landed by a fighter.

It considers how much a strike contributes to the likelihood of ending the fight, not just the number of strikes thrown or landed.

Judges assess factors such as:

Damage Inflicted: Visible signs like cuts, swelling, or staggering.

Impact: The force behind the strikes and how they affect the opponent.

Effectiveness: Whether the strikes disrupt the opponent's game plan or control.




Significant Strikes

Statistical Measure:

Significant strikes are a quantitative metric recorded by statisticians (e.g., FightMetric, now known as UFC Stats) to count specific types of strikes.

They include all strikes at distance and power strikes in the clinch and on the ground.""""


This was still in play under the older rules. Where is the source that only the quantitative measure was considered? Because I didn't get it from where I read, the opposite actually.
 
Right, I thought you were still thinking it was the new rules where the requirement is "even" before moving on.

But even then, with the old rules, it's not "if it's debatable, then go to these." It's just generally all thrown in a bucket. It says "effective striking, effective grappling, fighting area control, and effective aggressiveness/defense." It doesn't dictate any primary.

And I've repeatedly put the evidence as to why almost none of the criteria favor Jon. Dom is ahead in nearly every measurable category, other than keeping the center of the cage.
I don't see the evidence based on a breakdown of the fight. Actually, many of Reyes' strikes could fall under the quantitative but not qualitative aspect... And I've just watched yet again the round... I know basically what happened at each point of the round now lulz. I can do a thorough breakdown of it pointing out each moment and how the effective striking may apply to each moment. It would be a long winded breakdown, but I can easily see that as the case in the fight.
 
Right, I thought you were still thinking it was the new rules where the requirement is "even" before moving on.

But even then, with the old rules, it's not "if it's debatable, then go to these." It's just generally all thrown in a bucket. It says "effective striking, effective grappling, fighting area control, and effective aggressiveness/defense." It doesn't dictate any primary.

And I've repeatedly put the evidence as to why almost none of the criteria favor Jon. Dom is ahead in nearly every measurable category, other than keeping the center of the cage.
Ok, what's the primary then? How are them all thrown into a bucket? Which weight do any of them have?
 
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