Btw, I know that your physique means jackshit when it comes to fighting and Jones is clearly a prodigy of the sport...but he looks like dog shit. He’s just not made to carry lots of muscle. Chubby torso, skinny arms and legs. Added 60 pounds? lmao... not even 16 of sheer muscle.
All that said, I want to see Jon at HW. Very intriguing. Do I see him cleaning hw? Not at all. He will have great wins and devastating losses. Nobody leaves HW unscathed. He even has a decent chance to become champ if Lewis beats Ngannou imo.
I wish he would have done it when he was at his apex, which also coincided with slightly less massive HWs at the elite level. I feel reasonably confident that he would have beaten Cain by defending takedowns and being a more diverse striker (most likely with more pop IMO). I think JDS or Reem could have caught him, but think Jones would’ve been favored, too smart, too much timing, too crafty. Would have smashed up either if he got top position somehow and could’ve out-pointed them standing. Stipe would’ve been tough, he has pretty solid TDD (though DC took him down) and better boxing than Jon. Would have been very competitive if they met at their respective peaks I think. Go back a little further and I think he murks guys like Mir, Nog, Randy who were taking turns with the belt/interim belt. Brock who knows, weird matchup back then.
Right now I think it’s just a perfect storm of terrible. Jones is older, definitely lose his fastball a little bit. Can’t quite put my finger on what attributes have fallen off, but this isn’t the guy who brutalized Shogun, strangled Machida standing, sparked DC or even the guy who dominated Gus in the rematch. Just slightly weaker, slower, and less violent. Not good trends when you have an apex heavyweight predator topping the scales at 265+ of perfectly distributed muscle who is reaching his absolute prime physically and mentally. I think Jones gets knocked unconscious very badly by Ngannou. He could pull his head with the shots at LHW because he’s so rangy and has such good vision and reflexes, but Francis might genuinely be longer AND faster than him right now, and he’ll have no fear when it comes to navigating kicking range the way guys at LHW like Anthony Smith did. Bones won’t be ready for the aggression and explosive violence in my view.
Stipe I think Jon has a reasonable shot to beat. Tough fight, but if he’s quick and cagey and stays at kicking range I think he can score points and then clinch when he ends up in boxing range, land some bows and knees, and then escape. Competitive but he can win.
Lewis is so much worse at MMA than Jones that it’s hard to even evaluate the scale of the gap. Jones isn’t nearly as complacent and irresponsible as guys like Volkov who have allowed themselves to get caught. He does what Volkov did (I know he’s not as tall/long but he’s so much craftier and instinctive, it’s highly unlikely he leaves his chin there for one of those telegraphed bombs).
This all assumes that he’ll maintain most of his skills, chin and speed and add some core strength. If he’s fallen off after a bunch of tough fights, doesn’t add material pop to his strikes, and most of all looks as uninspired as he did against Reyes and especially Santos, he could lose to a lot of guys.
Just my two cents. Prime Jones does very well; this