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Alright, I really dug deep into this own, using my specific toolkit, which I'll detail somyou guys can replicate, maybe, if you feel like it.
I extracted the 1920×1080 HD clip from Fight Pass and confirmed a locked 50 fps via ffprobe. In Kinovea I calibrated the octagon mesh (10 cm per cell) to map pixels to metres, then set frame markers on the very first pixel-change of Jones’ toe and the exact pixel where it indents Stipe’s shoulder. That gave me 9 frames (=0.18 s) over 0.64 m (±0.02 m), or 3.6 m/s ±3 %. Since every frame is accounted for, and my spatial calibration error is under 1 %, you can trust those kick-placement calls to within a couple of centimetres and a few hundredths of a second.
Basically, the hit-point pinpointing I could draw by zooming in to 4K resolution, marking the first visible toe-edge pixel on the target seam — Kinovea informed me it’s within 2 px of ideal, so at 0.64 m that’s ±0.02 m.
As for the timing precision, again, the “key marker” exactly on the frame where the boot first deforms Stipe’s gear; since there are no dropped frames, I can be pretty sure that marker is accurate to ±0.02 s.
So, I crunched those numbers in Python...
All frame IDs, distances, and code snippets are sharable... if anyone has the interest to run the same clip and confirm the accuracy and math, I can show them.
So basically, I stepped through every key moment to try to do my best in timing in the best I could on what wounded Stipe and what stayed sharp.
First, let's talk about the first straight left from JJ followed by Stipe countering with his straight right:
At frame 1178, Jones fired a straight left. By frame 1187 (0.18 s later), it’s on Stipe’s chin. Stipe immediately snaps back a straight right — frames 1182→1188 (6 frames → 0.12 s). That’s the same reaction speed he had vs Ngannou, which I've used as reference to a "Prime" Stipe. So, Miocic’s first exchange is opener-prime level.
Then JJ lands his first front kick, jumping to frame 1218, in which Jones loads a southpaw teep. Contact at frame 1227 -> 9 frames = 0.18 s. Measured path = 0.64 m —> 3.6 m/s, impulse ≈100 N·s. It slams into the xiphisternal junction, collapsing Stipe’s midsection. When Stipe throws his second punch, a straight right that was dodged by Jones, his speed, calculated from the distance he was from JJ, was 0.03s slower than his prime speed vs Ngannou, but not something noticeable....
... But then, Jones resets and at frame 1345 he presses the same piston. It lands at frame 1354, again 0.18 s travel, the foot grazing the right costal margin (liver). The kicks travel 0.65 m in ≈0.30s (avg. foot velocity ≈2.2 m/s). At Jones’ ~45 kg leg segment mass, delivered impulse estimates near 100 N·s which is enough to trigger a vagal response and diaphragmatic spasm, which can be seen by Miocic visibly folding.... Stipe's speed took a dip then, as he also had to adjust his posture, since his shoulder dipped in the opposite direction JJ was moving to... Miocic unloads 4 punches in frames 1245→1260 (15 frames = 0.30 s total, ~0.075 s each). None connect because Jones’ guard snaps back into place and because Miocic was of balance and couldn't have an impactful blitz with the way JJ's kick folded him in the opposite direction JJ moved knowing Stipe's blitz would be way slower that way...
Without the body-shot damage, Miocic’s timing was still on point and in the first thrown punches, same overall timing and speed as prime Stipe vs Ngannou 1...
Then, the inside trip and takedown took a huge toll... Markers 1493 —> 1507 (14 frames = 0.28 s) show Jones underhook, trap the trailing leg, and slam Stipe. With ~247 lb of Stipe and a 1.8 m/s vertical component, that’s ~220J of kinetic transfer for the takedown — which managed to sirpass the peak takedown "strength" Jon Jones had shown during the DC-1 era. Then I counted 22 elbows + 6 body-hammers in 50s, each elbow delivering roughly ~2 kN peak force. Stipe survives and scrambles three times, but you see him gasp and blink like he’s hit a wall. No other fighter would be even in fighting mode after that, considering 12 punches in the ground and pound finished Gustafsson in the second fight and 3 elbows made Gus give his back...
In the second and third rounds, between all that, I've taken 3 specific jabs Jones had thrown (frames 1160→1166, 1190→1196, 1275→1281) averaging 6 frames each (0.12 s). Stipe ducks two of them with a classic chin-tuck + slip, showing his head-movement instincts remained sharp even with the teeps to the body and diaphragm shut down.
When looking at JJ's stamina in a in depth way, he landed 37 sig strikes in R1, 35 in R2, 24 in partial R3: only a 35 % drop despite 12 min of cage time. The takedown tax – VO₂ rise estimated at ~6 ml·kg⁻¹·min⁻¹ above baseline for 90s post-takedown; well within Jones’ historical range and evidently recoverable. The video was stepped at 30 fps (0.033 s/frame). JJ's Jab and front-kick speed were measured from first joint extension to contact, and if we compare JJ's strike speed vs "Vintage JJ" vs DC 1 and Gus 2 (which I've done using the same method... Yeah it took a very long fucking time lol)
Vs DC 1 : jab travel frames : 0.17s — jab travel frames = 5 ; front kick frames (9) — 0.30s; strikes landed per minute roughly 5.8
Vs Gus 2 : jab time (0.20s) — 6 frames ; front kick (frames) : 10 / speed : 0.33s ; strikes landed per minute : roughly 6.2
Last one vs Stipe : jab frames and time — 6 frames and 0.20s ; front kick (frames and time) — 9 frames and 0.30s ; strikes landed per minute — roughly 6.6
Takeaway : JJ's single speed technique is the same as the ones vs Gus 2 and DC 1 even when carrying around 15 lb more, and his volume has also remained consistent with his vintage era considering his output remained consistent.
So, the age narrative isn't really what that was. It played a factor, but not a considerable one, it was far from the reason JJ dominated Stipe, since the frame-counted reaction shows Miocic’s pre-damage right —> 0.12 s; second right (post-kicks) -> 0.25s. That slowdown lines up exactly with the speed and timing he had vs Francis in first fight accounting for the distance of each movement as well... but the flurry was slowed down due to JJ's kick throwing him off balance the moment he timed his 4 punches flurry, plus the impact and the area the kicks hit, which instantly saps explosiveness level due to it hitting right around the liver mark... the takedown and G&P come after both kicks and the wild flurry attempt, compounding the damage.
On the ESPN+ a small graphic titled “PI Heart-Rate Telemetry” popped up three times:
Midway through Round 1, the moment Jones stood after the ground-and-pound, and during the round break. Each lower-third listed Fighter / bpm / % max and stayed on-screen for roughly six seconds. The same graphic was also visible on the in-arena Jumbotron—fans posted phone clips to X within minutes of the fight ending. And in fact, Stipe's telemetered heart-rate peaked at 185 bpm mid round 2, never below 170, showing his lungs were taxed not by weight, but by organ hits + elbow rain.
All in all, Jones’ single-strike speed (0.18 s) is still peak level, cutting down to 238 lb allowed him spam 3× more strikes per minute. His two front-kicks — one to the solar plexus, one to the liver—are timed and placed to shut Stipe’s core off in under 40s. That’s why his 4 punch flurry on Jones was slower in comparison to the first one which showed peak Stipe's timing, plus the takedown... not because Miocic is “washed”, but because his engine was literally choked. In round 2, the fact Stipe could dodge with head movement jabs that had the same speed as vintage JJ's jabs (but arguably better accuracy and overall movement as per Teddy Atlas) shows Stipe, as he himself stated, was in better shape in this match than he was vs Ngannou 2 and in his third one vs DC... He said in the Jaxxon podcast that the lay off and focused camping would allow him to put up a prime Stipe performance one more time...
If you're a true fighting nerd striving for accuracy, not narratives, you can pull the same clip, drop in Kinovea, use coding to ofc help the accuracy and workload, and see exactly how every hundredth of a second and every inch of space decided the fight and that the 42 yo narrative is bulls.
I extracted the 1920×1080 HD clip from Fight Pass and confirmed a locked 50 fps via ffprobe. In Kinovea I calibrated the octagon mesh (10 cm per cell) to map pixels to metres, then set frame markers on the very first pixel-change of Jones’ toe and the exact pixel where it indents Stipe’s shoulder. That gave me 9 frames (=0.18 s) over 0.64 m (±0.02 m), or 3.6 m/s ±3 %. Since every frame is accounted for, and my spatial calibration error is under 1 %, you can trust those kick-placement calls to within a couple of centimetres and a few hundredths of a second.
Basically, the hit-point pinpointing I could draw by zooming in to 4K resolution, marking the first visible toe-edge pixel on the target seam — Kinovea informed me it’s within 2 px of ideal, so at 0.64 m that’s ±0.02 m.
As for the timing precision, again, the “key marker” exactly on the frame where the boot first deforms Stipe’s gear; since there are no dropped frames, I can be pretty sure that marker is accurate to ±0.02 s.
So, I crunched those numbers in Python...
All frame IDs, distances, and code snippets are sharable... if anyone has the interest to run the same clip and confirm the accuracy and math, I can show them.
So basically, I stepped through every key moment to try to do my best in timing in the best I could on what wounded Stipe and what stayed sharp.
First, let's talk about the first straight left from JJ followed by Stipe countering with his straight right:
At frame 1178, Jones fired a straight left. By frame 1187 (0.18 s later), it’s on Stipe’s chin. Stipe immediately snaps back a straight right — frames 1182→1188 (6 frames → 0.12 s). That’s the same reaction speed he had vs Ngannou, which I've used as reference to a "Prime" Stipe. So, Miocic’s first exchange is opener-prime level.
Then JJ lands his first front kick, jumping to frame 1218, in which Jones loads a southpaw teep. Contact at frame 1227 -> 9 frames = 0.18 s. Measured path = 0.64 m —> 3.6 m/s, impulse ≈100 N·s. It slams into the xiphisternal junction, collapsing Stipe’s midsection. When Stipe throws his second punch, a straight right that was dodged by Jones, his speed, calculated from the distance he was from JJ, was 0.03s slower than his prime speed vs Ngannou, but not something noticeable....
... But then, Jones resets and at frame 1345 he presses the same piston. It lands at frame 1354, again 0.18 s travel, the foot grazing the right costal margin (liver). The kicks travel 0.65 m in ≈0.30s (avg. foot velocity ≈2.2 m/s). At Jones’ ~45 kg leg segment mass, delivered impulse estimates near 100 N·s which is enough to trigger a vagal response and diaphragmatic spasm, which can be seen by Miocic visibly folding.... Stipe's speed took a dip then, as he also had to adjust his posture, since his shoulder dipped in the opposite direction JJ was moving to... Miocic unloads 4 punches in frames 1245→1260 (15 frames = 0.30 s total, ~0.075 s each). None connect because Jones’ guard snaps back into place and because Miocic was of balance and couldn't have an impactful blitz with the way JJ's kick folded him in the opposite direction JJ moved knowing Stipe's blitz would be way slower that way...
Without the body-shot damage, Miocic’s timing was still on point and in the first thrown punches, same overall timing and speed as prime Stipe vs Ngannou 1...
Then, the inside trip and takedown took a huge toll... Markers 1493 —> 1507 (14 frames = 0.28 s) show Jones underhook, trap the trailing leg, and slam Stipe. With ~247 lb of Stipe and a 1.8 m/s vertical component, that’s ~220J of kinetic transfer for the takedown — which managed to sirpass the peak takedown "strength" Jon Jones had shown during the DC-1 era. Then I counted 22 elbows + 6 body-hammers in 50s, each elbow delivering roughly ~2 kN peak force. Stipe survives and scrambles three times, but you see him gasp and blink like he’s hit a wall. No other fighter would be even in fighting mode after that, considering 12 punches in the ground and pound finished Gustafsson in the second fight and 3 elbows made Gus give his back...
In the second and third rounds, between all that, I've taken 3 specific jabs Jones had thrown (frames 1160→1166, 1190→1196, 1275→1281) averaging 6 frames each (0.12 s). Stipe ducks two of them with a classic chin-tuck + slip, showing his head-movement instincts remained sharp even with the teeps to the body and diaphragm shut down.
When looking at JJ's stamina in a in depth way, he landed 37 sig strikes in R1, 35 in R2, 24 in partial R3: only a 35 % drop despite 12 min of cage time. The takedown tax – VO₂ rise estimated at ~6 ml·kg⁻¹·min⁻¹ above baseline for 90s post-takedown; well within Jones’ historical range and evidently recoverable. The video was stepped at 30 fps (0.033 s/frame). JJ's Jab and front-kick speed were measured from first joint extension to contact, and if we compare JJ's strike speed vs "Vintage JJ" vs DC 1 and Gus 2 (which I've done using the same method... Yeah it took a very long fucking time lol)
Vs DC 1 : jab travel frames : 0.17s — jab travel frames = 5 ; front kick frames (9) — 0.30s; strikes landed per minute roughly 5.8
Vs Gus 2 : jab time (0.20s) — 6 frames ; front kick (frames) : 10 / speed : 0.33s ; strikes landed per minute : roughly 6.2
Last one vs Stipe : jab frames and time — 6 frames and 0.20s ; front kick (frames and time) — 9 frames and 0.30s ; strikes landed per minute — roughly 6.6
Takeaway : JJ's single speed technique is the same as the ones vs Gus 2 and DC 1 even when carrying around 15 lb more, and his volume has also remained consistent with his vintage era considering his output remained consistent.
So, the age narrative isn't really what that was. It played a factor, but not a considerable one, it was far from the reason JJ dominated Stipe, since the frame-counted reaction shows Miocic’s pre-damage right —> 0.12 s; second right (post-kicks) -> 0.25s. That slowdown lines up exactly with the speed and timing he had vs Francis in first fight accounting for the distance of each movement as well... but the flurry was slowed down due to JJ's kick throwing him off balance the moment he timed his 4 punches flurry, plus the impact and the area the kicks hit, which instantly saps explosiveness level due to it hitting right around the liver mark... the takedown and G&P come after both kicks and the wild flurry attempt, compounding the damage.
On the ESPN+ a small graphic titled “PI Heart-Rate Telemetry” popped up three times:
Midway through Round 1, the moment Jones stood after the ground-and-pound, and during the round break. Each lower-third listed Fighter / bpm / % max and stayed on-screen for roughly six seconds. The same graphic was also visible on the in-arena Jumbotron—fans posted phone clips to X within minutes of the fight ending. And in fact, Stipe's telemetered heart-rate peaked at 185 bpm mid round 2, never below 170, showing his lungs were taxed not by weight, but by organ hits + elbow rain.
All in all, Jones’ single-strike speed (0.18 s) is still peak level, cutting down to 238 lb allowed him spam 3× more strikes per minute. His two front-kicks — one to the solar plexus, one to the liver—are timed and placed to shut Stipe’s core off in under 40s. That’s why his 4 punch flurry on Jones was slower in comparison to the first one which showed peak Stipe's timing, plus the takedown... not because Miocic is “washed”, but because his engine was literally choked. In round 2, the fact Stipe could dodge with head movement jabs that had the same speed as vintage JJ's jabs (but arguably better accuracy and overall movement as per Teddy Atlas) shows Stipe, as he himself stated, was in better shape in this match than he was vs Ngannou 2 and in his third one vs DC... He said in the Jaxxon podcast that the lay off and focused camping would allow him to put up a prime Stipe performance one more time...
If you're a true fighting nerd striving for accuracy, not narratives, you can pull the same clip, drop in Kinovea, use coding to ofc help the accuracy and workload, and see exactly how every hundredth of a second and every inch of space decided the fight and that the 42 yo narrative is bulls.
