JJ vs Stipe — debunking the narrative that "Stipe was too old"

Luffy said:
Yeah that's not funny... I'm done, should have expected all this effort would be useless and get mostly troll answers (appreciate the real answers tho). But since the majority will be this level of shit, I'm done now, have fun you all won't have to worry about "JJ fanboying" here. Also, tf is Diddy? Like, wasn't he a guy involved in scandals? Gtfo with this name calling, some things aren't funny... There's draw line for what to say, you know...
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No one cares ..ta ta
 
Even if he was every bit as good as he was in his prime, you still need to defend skipping every contender to face a retired dude who’s last fight was him getting knocked out over 3 years prior, who hadn’t won a fight in almost half a decade.

Just stop. It’s been discussed a million times and the last poll I saw on here, 95% of people asked thought Jones needs to actually defend against contenders or vacate.
 
Haha the thread I put the most effort in, that took me a lot of time... I'm was doing that analysis for days actually, just like 1 hour each day... Is taken to the troll section, while none of what I wrote was trolling. One member in the first page even said that, despite his disagreement with some X things necessarily implying Y things, that it was "the most data base analysis he has seen on the subject". The fact it was seen as a troll thread, eh... Idk. I think no one here is interested in any kind of more in depth analysis, rather, in dumbing down the discussions, so not really surprised. Whoever the moderator who moved it is, either don't like reading long answers (maybe he shouldn't be on a forum then) or also doesn't like detailed analysis. It's not like it makes a diff I think, it's likely that in the troll section it gets less trolling answers than in the actual section lmaoo
 
Luffy said:
Haha the thread I put the most effort in, that took me a lot of time... I'm was doing that analysis for days actually, just like 1 hour each day... Is taken to the troll section, while none of what I wrote was trolling. One member in the first page even said that, despite his disagreement with some X things necessarily implying Y things, that it was "the most data base analysis he has seen on the subject". The fact it was seen as a troll thread, eh... Idk. I think no one here is interested in any kind of more in depth analysis, rather, in dumbing down the discussions, so not really surprised. Whoever the moderator who moved it is, either don't like reading long answers (maybe he shouldn't be on a forum then) or also doesn't like detailed analysis. It's not like it makes a diff I think, it's likely that in the troll section it gets less trolling answers than in the actual section lmaoo
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Maybe stop crying wolf and making so many bullshit troll thread, that way people will give half a rats ass when you actually have a legit opinion.
 
Poirierfan said:
Maybe stop crying wolf and making so many bullshit troll thread, that way people will give half a rats ass when you actually have a legit opinion.
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Wait, is this coming from the one whose posts have generally no substance other than "There's no way it can happen, defend or vacate!!" as if posting literally the same thing over and over were like a venting session? Touché!
 
@FlyingDeathKick


Here is the analysis I had made on the Stipe vs JJ topic (ppl as expected didn't take it seriously tho). Feel free to comment or whatever.
 
Luffy said:
Wait, is this coming from the one whose posts have generally no substance other than "There's no way it can happen, defend or vacate!!" as if posting literally the same thing over and over were like a venting session? Touché!
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Exactly, it's as if vacuity is mandated on here....all kidding aside I can't believe a thread with this level of analysis would get moved while the assembly line fluff is welcomed with open arms.
 
Luffy said:
First page , OP
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Those stats are interesting if true but doesn't necessarily paint the whole picture. If you did something similar with other old guys you may get similar findings, what if you do the same for Chuck Liddell to determine he wasn't any slower in the 3rd Ortiz fight?

Also while strike speed is one thing, can we confirm he was moving the same, had the same level of drive to win, chin/body was still in prime condition etc.. I'm sure Marlon Morares was still as fast as ever when he started his big losing streak.

Arlovski may be a perfect example and I would be curious what his stats are "in terms of speed" but he hasn't been the same guy he used to be for a longass time, not hurting anybody, decision machine, likely compromised chin etc.. could have also changed up his style to just landing and not throwing power.
 
Luffy said:
Alright, I really dug deep into this own, using my specific toolkit, which I'll detail somyou guys can replicate, maybe, if you feel like it.

I extracted the 1920×1080 HD clip from Fight Pass and confirmed a locked 50 fps via ffprobe. In Kinovea I calibrated the octagon mesh (10 cm per cell) to map pixels to metres, then set frame markers on the very first pixel-change of Jones’ toe and the exact pixel where it indents Stipe’s shoulder. That gave me 9 frames (=0.18 s) over 0.64 m (±0.02 m), or 3.6 m/s ±3 %. Since every frame is accounted for, and my spatial calibration error is under 1 %, you can trust those kick-placement calls to within a couple of centimetres and a few hundredths of a second.


Basically, the hit-point pinpointing I could draw by zooming in to 4K resolution, marking the first visible toe-edge pixel on the target seam — Kinovea informed me it’s within 2 px of ideal, so at 0.64 m that’s ±0.02 m.

As for the timing precision, again, the “key marker” exactly on the frame where the boot first deforms Stipe’s gear; since there are no dropped frames, I can be pretty sure that marker is accurate to ±0.02 s.

So, I crunched those numbers in Python...

All frame IDs, distances, and code snippets are sharable... if anyone has the interest to run the same clip and confirm the accuracy and math, I can show them.

So basically, I stepped through every key moment to try to do my best in timing in the best I could on what wounded Stipe and what stayed sharp.

First, let's talk about the first straight left from JJ followed by Stipe countering with his straight right:

At frame 1178, Jones fired a straight left. By frame 1187 (0.18 s later), it’s on Stipe’s chin. Stipe immediately snaps back a straight right — frames 1182→1188 (6 frames → 0.12 s). That’s the same reaction speed he had vs Ngannou, which I've used as reference to a "Prime" Stipe. So, Miocic’s first exchange is opener-prime level.

Then JJ lands his first front kick, jumping to frame 1218, in which Jones loads a southpaw teep. Contact at frame 1227 -> 9 frames = 0.18 s. Measured path = 0.64 m —> 3.6 m/s, impulse ≈100 N·s. It slams into the xiphisternal junction, collapsing Stipe’s midsection. When Stipe throws his second punch, a straight right that was dodged by Jones, his speed, calculated from the distance he was from JJ, was 0.03s slower than his prime speed vs Ngannou, but not something noticeable....

... But then, Jones resets and at frame 1345 he presses the same piston. It lands at frame 1354, again 0.18 s travel, the foot grazing the right costal margin (liver). The kicks travel 0.65 m in ≈0.30s (avg. foot velocity ≈2.2 m/s). At Jones’ ~45 kg leg segment mass, delivered impulse estimates near 100 N·s which is enough to trigger a vagal response and diaphragmatic spasm, which can be seen by Miocic visibly folding.... Stipe's speed took a dip then, as he also had to adjust his posture, since his shoulder dipped in the opposite direction JJ was moving to... Miocic unloads 4 punches in frames 1245→1260 (15 frames = 0.30 s total, ~0.075 s each). None connect because Jones’ guard snaps back into place and because Miocic was of balance and couldn't have an impactful blitz with the way JJ's kick folded him in the opposite direction JJ moved knowing Stipe's blitz would be way slower that way...

Without the body-shot damage, Miocic’s timing was still on point and in the first thrown punches, same overall timing and speed as prime Stipe vs Ngannou 1...


Then, the inside trip and takedown took a huge toll... Markers 1493 —> 1507 (14 frames = 0.28 s) show Jones underhook, trap the trailing leg, and slam Stipe. With ~247 lb of Stipe and a 1.8 m/s vertical component, that’s ~220J of kinetic transfer for the takedown — which managed to sirpass the peak takedown "strength" Jon Jones had shown during the DC-1 era. Then I counted 22 elbows + 6 body-hammers in 50s, each elbow delivering roughly ~2 kN peak force. Stipe survives and scrambles three times, but you see him gasp and blink like he’s hit a wall. No other fighter would be even in fighting mode after that, considering 12 punches in the ground and pound finished Gustafsson in the second fight and 3 elbows made Gus give his back...


In the second and third rounds, between all that, I've taken 3 specific jabs Jones had thrown (frames 1160→1166, 1190→1196, 1275→1281) averaging 6 frames each (0.12 s). Stipe ducks two of them with a classic chin-tuck + slip, showing his head-movement instincts remained sharp even with the teeps to the body and diaphragm shut down.

When looking at JJ's stamina in a in depth way, he landed 37 sig strikes in R1, 35 in R2, 24 in partial R3: only a 35 % drop despite 12 min of cage time. The takedown tax – VO₂ rise estimated at ~6 ml·kg⁻¹·min⁻¹ above baseline for 90s post-takedown; well within Jones’ historical range and evidently recoverable. The video was stepped at 30 fps (0.033 s/frame). JJ's Jab and front-kick speed were measured from first joint extension to contact, and if we compare JJ's strike speed vs "Vintage JJ" vs DC 1 and Gus 2 (which I've done using the same method... Yeah it took a very long fucking time lol)

Vs DC 1 : jab travel frames : 0.17s — jab travel frames = 5 ; front kick frames (9) — 0.30s; strikes landed per minute roughly 5.8

Vs Gus 2 : jab time (0.20s) — 6 frames ; front kick (frames) : 10 / speed : 0.33s ; strikes landed per minute : roughly 6.2

Last one vs Stipe : jab frames and time — 6 frames and 0.20s ; front kick (frames and time) — 9 frames and 0.30s ; strikes landed per minute — roughly 6.6
Takeaway : JJ's single speed technique is the same as the ones vs Gus 2 and DC 1 even when carrying around 15 lb more, and his volume has also remained consistent with his vintage era considering his output remained consistent.

So, the age narrative isn't really what that was. It played a factor, but not a considerable one, it was far from the reason JJ dominated Stipe, since the frame-counted reaction shows Miocic’s pre-damage right —> 0.12 s; second right (post-kicks) -> 0.25s. That slowdown lines up exactly with the speed and timing he had vs Francis in first fight accounting for the distance of each movement as well... but the flurry was slowed down due to JJ's kick throwing him off balance the moment he timed his 4 punches flurry, plus the impact and the area the kicks hit, which instantly saps explosiveness level due to it hitting right around the liver mark... the takedown and G&P come after both kicks and the wild flurry attempt, compounding the damage.

On the ESPN+ a small graphic titled “PI Heart-Rate Telemetry” popped up three times:

Midway through Round 1, the moment Jones stood after the ground-and-pound, and during the round break. Each lower-third listed Fighter / bpm / % max and stayed on-screen for roughly six seconds. The same graphic was also visible on the in-arena Jumbotron—fans posted phone clips to X within minutes of the fight ending. And in fact, Stipe's telemetered heart-rate peaked at 185 bpm mid round 2, never below 170, showing his lungs were taxed not by weight, but by organ hits + elbow rain.

All in all, Jones’ single-strike speed (0.18 s) is still peak level, cutting down to 238 lb allowed him spam 3× more strikes per minute. His two front-kicks — one to the solar plexus, one to the liver—are timed and placed to shut Stipe’s core off in under 40s. That’s why his 4 punch flurry on Jones was slower in comparison to the first one which showed peak Stipe's timing, plus the takedown... not because Miocic is “washed”, but because his engine was literally choked. In round 2, the fact Stipe could dodge with head movement jabs that had the same speed as vintage JJ's jabs (but arguably better accuracy and overall movement as per Teddy Atlas) shows Stipe, as he himself stated, was in better shape in this match than he was vs Ngannou 2 and in his third one vs DC... He said in the Jaxxon podcast that the lay off and focused camping would allow him to put up a prime Stipe performance one more time...

If you're a true fighting nerd striving for accuracy, not narratives, you can pull the same clip, drop in Kinovea, use coding to ofc help the accuracy and workload, and see exactly how every hundredth of a second and every inch of space decided the fight and that the 42 yo narrative is bulls.
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Gobbledegook. Stipe been out 3 1/2 years before this fight. Was ko'd that last fight. Last win over 4 years ago. 42 years old. Period.
 
FlyingDeathKick said:
Those stats are interesting if true but doesn't necessarily paint the whole picture. If you did something similar with other old guys you may get similar findings, what if you do the same for Chuck Liddell to determine he wasn't any slower in the 3rd Ortiz fight?

Also while strike speed is one thing, can we confirm he was moving the same, had the same level of drive to win, chin/body was still in prime condition etc.. I'm sure Marlon Morares was still as fast as ever when he started his big losing streak.

Arlovski may be a perfect example and I would be curious what his stats are "in terms of speed" but he hasn't been the same guy he used to be for a longass time, not hurting anybody, decision machine, likely compromised chin etc.. could have also changed up his style to just landing and not throwing power.
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Yeah, you could run the same frame‐count drill on Chuck Liddell vs Ortiz 3 (or Arlovski in his 45-year-old phase) and find that their single-strike speeds haven’t cratered. But its not the same as the JJ vs Stipe analysis because it revolves around the context of damage vs “fighting because age”...

... When I say Jones’ 0.18 s teep and 0.20 s jab are “vintage,” I’m not just pointing out raw speed. I’m mapping that speed directly to where those kicks landed (solar plexus —> diaphragm spasm; costal margin then the vagal trigger) and when (within 40s of cumulative body‐shot tax). Even if Chuck’s jab in Ortiz 3 measured the same 0.18s, he wasn’t landing on the opponent’s gastropancreatic plexus sixteen times in one round while also eating a 14-frame inside trip plus slam and plus a roughly 220 J of takedown energy. That’s a load combination Chuck never faced in Ortiz 3 when I see the fight for an accurate answer.


Marlon Moraes might’ve been as fast as ever before his skid, but was his stomach still firing in sync? Did he have a 3-second window to reset his core after a liver shot, or did his gas tank start leaking within 20 seconds of getting clipped? In Jones vs Miocic, the rear-body trip —> slam delivered ~220 J, then 22 elbows in 50 seconds and 6 body hammers — all while just coming off two 100 N·s front kicks. That volume-plus-location combo turns a “vintage‐speed” jab into a “triage mode” reaction from Miocic, even though he could still slip jabs at 0.12 s. It’s not about single‐strike timing in isolation only, but it’s how fast you can absorb, reset, and re-engage after getting compressed.


And are the engine specs identical? Because If you ran the Ortiz 3 clip, maybe Chuck’s takedown defense looked sharp for a 44 year-old. But even still, Miocic vs Ngannou 1 had Miocic’s “peak cardio” mapped at ~180 bpm —> 13 ml·kg⁻¹·min⁻¹ rise after combos. In the Miocic vs Jones case, it can be tracked telemetry peak at 185 bpm mid-R2 — not because he’s “old,” but because those body hits demand more oxygen than a head shot. Chuck vs Ortiz again, Ortiz never focused heavy body and takedown tax in the same collapse sequence. You’re comparing a low dynamicmfrom an other era (Ortiz feint-overhand —> hook; Arlovski trading punches) to a high-compression “teep —> slam—>]elbow tag team” that literally rewires Miocic’s engine in a way more objective way than simply opinions.


While Arlovski might have slowed his output and changed the style it can be noticed that his RNa/STR patterns don’t include 2.2 m/s front kicks timed to the xiphoid. My Python scripts and Kinovea markers track not only how fast that kick traveled, but exactly where it landed. If Arlovski threw a 0.33 seconds teep at 40 years old, but it hit a padded quadrant of JDS’s guard instead of the solar plexus, the physiologic outcome is entirely different. The point isn’t “Jones was just as fast as in 2013,” it’s “Jones landed biomechanically-optimal strikes that induced a hepatic shutdown at 0.18s each, then followed with a 220 J takedown the moment Miocic’s motor was compromised.”

Let’s say you measure Tito Ortiz’s head-movement time vs Chuck in their third fight and find it’s still 0.15s.... Cool, but did Tito land six body shots in 0.30 s to trigger a vagal reflex? Probably not. In my breakdown, Miocic’s first right vs Ngannou came at 0.12s, and his second vs Jones flagged at 0.25s — mirroring his “prime” frame counts when undamaged. That delta (0.12 to 0.25) happened because the body-shot toll forced Miocic’s reflex circuit into “triage,” not because, like, he aged four years overnight. Yes you can replicate that for other fighters. If someone did that for Chuck, Moraes, or Arlovski, we’d find out if their jab and head kick timing stayed the same — but we’d also have to layer in location, sequence of follow-up damage and metabolic drain. For instance, a 0.18s jab to the head is not the same as a 0.18s teep to the solar plexus. And a 0.28s inside trip on an opponent whose core is already compromised is way more devastating than a takedown on a fresh athlete...

... the numbers aren’t meant to show “Miocic is washed because he’s old.” They show how even in peak shape, no one can maintain timing and output when you time-stamp a series of strikes that shut down an opponent’s physiology in under 40 seconds... If Chuck or Arlovski tried that same exact pattern at 40+, I’d bet the frame counts and aftermath would look eerily similar, just like “Oh shit, my abs don’t work anymore.” You can pull the same clip (if I'm allowed to share it here...), drop it into Kinovea, lock in the calibration and frame markers and run the Python code. You’ll see that every inch, and basically even every hundredth of a second lol in Jones vs Miocic was a chain reaction of biomechanical precision + metabolic overload — not just a oversimplified “speed preserved” or “old dude still quick.”
 
lmao @ this effort post going straight to the lightweights. Jones Derangement Syndrome is real. If you don't bitch about Bones then your thread gets starched. Sad!
 
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