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I don't think you understand MMA - you can't just "walk right through" someone that has length/reach/speed/technical footwork/better striking tools/etc.
What type of fighter is Izzy? He's a technical out-fighter, he wants to sit at range and snipe off opponents that either sit at distance or counter opponents that aren't able to effectively pressure (not technical enough with closing footwork/feints/etc. and can't match him in length/reach/speed so he has edges).
What type of fighter is Costa? He's a technical brawler that likes to pressure but does so pretty recklessly at times (Achilles heel of the brawler, complete faith in their chin as the last line of defense); he's willing to eat 2 to land 1 because he knows he takes damage better than his opponents (tougher than almost anyone), so he wants to walk opponents into the fence and then unload hell on their body.
You seem to have this idea that Costa is an unstoppable badass that can just absorb damage like it's nothing; as noted, he got dropped by a Uriah Hall jab and looked slightly hurt, so he is not some unstoppable god that can't be touched. He has a lot of defensive holes and the advantages are going to be significant - 4 inches of height, 8 inches of reach, going against someone that has the best linear striking in the division and most technical defensive footwork; that's not a recipe for success, that's a hell of a mountain to overcome.
Not saying Costa can't do it because the dude is an absolute beast and if can hurt or trap Izzy can certainly stun and finish him; if it's a smaller cage then I think his chances go up considerably, but in the 30-foot cage there is so much room to work with that it's almost impossible to trap opponents like Izzy (they will always stay on their bike to stay off the cage). I don't know why you think Izzy is going to just let himself get walked back into the cage and sit there when he's literally never done that in his entire MMA career.
Hagler vs. Hearns, while one of the greatest match-ups/short fights of all-time, was a boxing match - this isn't boxing though, there are more target areas then the head and body, more weapons then 4 types of punches, and there are a lot more strategies/tactics to employ so you aren't in non-stop fire-fight where you can't avoid getting hit. The reason Izzy is champ is because he's avoided brawling and forced opponents to fight him technically; maybe Costa can be the guy to change that and create a more Gastelum-like brawl in there where there are prolonged exchanges.
Also if we learned anything from that fight it was that Hearns employed a terrible strategy as he tried to brawl a brawler when he was a far superior technical boxer (remember that concept about brawling a boxer and brawling a boxer?). Strategy matters, it's not just about being a physical specimen - Hagler didn't force Hearns to brawl, that was a decision Hearns made in the first and it was a fatal mistake.
Since you are so confident please do share your bet-slip with us.
I understand MMA (and plenty of other forms of combat) better than you.
Aside from Hagler/Hearns, also watch Barkley/Hearns I ... Barkley was getting murdered by Hearns, trying to "box him," and then his corner told him to "fight the MFer" ... and Barkley turned it into a street brawl, and KO'd Hearns, who was 1000x times better boxer and puncher than Izzy. And Barkley wasn't half the specimen Costa is.
You write all of this stuff that is self-explanatory. I understand Izzy is technically-sound. I understand he's the better counter-striker. Same as Hearns was better (on every possible level) than Barkley, from speed to timing, to punch.
What you need to understand is the role of physical superiority. Barkley had two things on Hearns and those were a better chin and a tougher constitution.
Izzy really doesn't have a whole lot going for him over Costa, not as much as Hearns had over Barkley—and yet Barkley got the win by making a street brawl out of it. (Juan Roldan almost got a similar KO of Hearns, but Hearns got him first.)
That is the way to beat Izzy, not trying to "outpoint him," or "catch him" from the outside (or by jumping in from the outside) ... the way to beat him is by making an absolute street brawl out of it, where Costa's advantage in strength, power, physical durability will wear Izzy down.
All of the effort, the physical contact, of interacting with Costa, will tax Izzy's body, and especially legs, more than it will ever affect Costa.
As I said, Costa may get caught cold. I know he has suffered flash knockdowns before, you've not telling me anything I don't already know.
The point you need to recognize about Costa is 1) he gets right back up, and (more importantly) and 2) it doesn't faze him in the least. He is still after your ass trying to knock you TF out.
Also, Romero and Hall are extremely powerful men, unlike Izzy, and they could not hold Costa off of them.
I think Costa's relentless, non-stop brutal pace, brutal power, and just sheer physical superiority will wear Izzy down.
The only way Costa loses is 1) if he disappoints and comes out tentatively, which I doubt, or 2) he gets caught cold early.
If Costa fights his typical relentless, pummeling, non-stop pressure style—and doesn't get caught—then he will batter and wilt Izzy into a KO or quit.
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