Islam vs Olivera

[SeattleFightFan]

oops never mind.

 

[WhiteMousse]

Well if he'd spend more time working on striking defense instead of convincing all his friends to dye their hair he'd be a serious threat to Islam, and he and his group would seem a lot less gay

 

[Tweak896]

Really? I haven't seen anyone suggest that. Islam out started charles through and through.

Yeah I see many implying Olivera was "off that night", "injured", or "wrong strategy". Just sort of downplaying how Olivera has basically the worst style for Islam.

 

[fortheo]

I strongly disagree with the premise that Charles is too experienced to make significant changes. Volk and GSP don't have an inherent trait that makes them uniquely able to follow a tailored game plan. Charles is an experienced fighter, he can emulate what they do if he has the will to change. Justin Gaethje is someone who actually succeeded at doing this, Gaethje completely reformed himself from an all action "instinct" fighter (like charles) to a much more cerebral fighter that follows a plan.

I never said he can't make changes -- in fact i tried to convince you that they are in fact coming in with a different gameplan. You are suggesting radical changes, and I merely suggested that making radical changes could be over correcting an issue and have more negative effects than positive

What is it exactly that you want to hear from that team?

 

[fortheo]

Yeah I see many implying Olivera was "off that night", "injured", or "wrong strategy". Just sort of downplaying how Olivera has basically the worst style for Islam.

Do you think Charles had the right strategy? Or do you just think it doesn't matter and Charles can't beat him no matter what?

Most fighters that lost had the wrong strategy to be honest. I don't see this as an insult to islam, because he out smarted Charles and strategy is part of the game.

 

[Tweak896]

Do you think Charles had the right strategy? Or d you just think it doesn't matter and Charles can't beat him no matter what?

Most fighters that lost had the wrong strategy to be honest. I don't see this as an insult to islam, because he out smarter Charles and strategy is part of the game.

No I think Islam is too defensive and careful on the feet it doesn't matter about the strategy. He tried the best strategy and that's being aggressive and hoping for a KO. If he hangs back and tries to outland for points, eventually Islam would just take him down as a plan B. And on the ground I really don't see him subbing Islam. I don't care he has the most submissions ever, Islam's wrestling + sub defense is too much to get caught like that. I think it's a bad matchup for Olivera all around.

 

[moosaev]

I never said he can't make changes -- in fact i tried to convince you that they are in fact coming in with a different gameplan. You are suggesting radical changes, and I merely suggested that making radical changes could be over correcting an issue and have more negative effects than positive

What is it exactly that you want to hear from that team?

I never said you said he can’t make changes, I said you said he can’t (or shouldn’t) make significant changes. Where we disagree is in how drastic a change Charles needs to make, you’re claiming a drastic change isn’t advisable or feasible, I’m saying it is and it is, and there is already an example of a fighter who made such a change, Justin Gaethje.

 

[fortheo]

I never said you said he can’t make changes, I said you said he can’t (or shouldn’t) make significant changes. Where we disagree is in how drastic a change Charles needs to make, you’re claiming a drastic change isn’t advisable or feasible, I’m saying it is and it is, and there is already an example of a fighter who made such a change, Justin Gaethje.

Gaethje took a long time to make such changes, and he wasn't 34 and 40 fights deep into his career. Also, the majority of the changes in Gaethje's game have been TACTICAL which are the exact changes I said charles can make. So I feel like we are agreeing here but arguing over semantics.

 

[fortheo]

No I think Islam is too defensive and careful on the feet it doesn't matter about the strategy. He tried the best strategy and that's being aggressive and hoping for a KO. If he hangs back and tries to outland for points, eventually Islam would just take him down as a plan B. And on the ground I really don't see him subbing Islam. I don't care he has the most submissions ever, Islam's wrestling + sub defense is too much to get caught like that. I think it's a bad matchup for Olivera all around.

Strong disagreement there. It always matters, but that is just my opinion.

 

[Kampfpanzer]

No I think Islam is too defensive and careful on the feet it doesn't matter about the strategy. He tried the best strategy and that's being aggressive and hoping for a KO. If he hangs back and tries to outland for points, eventually Islam would just take him down as a plan B. And on the ground I really don't see him subbing Islam. I don't care he has the most submissions ever, Islam's wrestling + sub defense is too much to get caught like that. I think it's a bad matchup for Olivera all around.

Oliveiras best chance is to do what he did last time. If he plays it slow and careful he's losing the chance to KO Islam in the chaos.

Bad matchup for him

 

[Tweak896]

Strong disagreement there. It always matters, but that is just my opinion.

Maybe I eat crow for the rematch. I just don't see it. I'm not a mma Nostradamus who makes perfect predictions. I just don't see a path for victory for Olivera besides catching Islam lowering his guard or maybe a club/sub in similar fashion. Volk sort of exposed the gameplan you need to beat him, but even with his skills he was edged out.

 

[Tweak896]

Oliveiras best chance is to do what he did last time. If he plays it slow and careful he's losing the chance to KO Islam in the chaos.

Bad matchup for him

Agreed. I don't see Olivera winning on points. Maybe he can pull a Leon and catch Islam off guard in the last rounds where I noticed Islam sort of plays loose.

 

[Shaddows]

Anyone giving Charles a chance..

He looked very well rounded until he faught him the first time his striking iq looked terrible whent in for that telegraphed knee and got dropped text book

Is islam too well rounded for him. Islams striking is actually good I hate to say it.

I think olivera coulda beaten khabib but I believe from watching his fights islam is a way better striker.

Hope he can pull it off but I see him over working again. Trying to keep his pressure up.

I disagree.
IMHO this battle could be an amazing chess match on the ground.
Or standing, CHarles has any chance to knock Islam out (it happened before) as much as Cain can catch Olives (like he did).
I don't know what went wrong for Charles, or why he didn't look like the killer himself; and I hope he can rectify those things and take this win!

IMHO, I think that will be amazing for him! Crown his career and make this division (and the obvious trilogy) would be the best thing for the UFC as well!!!

 

[fortheo]

Maybe I eat crow for the rematch. I just don't see it. I'm not a mma Nostradamus who makes perfect predictions. I just don't see a path for victory for Olivera besides catching Islam lowering his guard or maybe a club/sub in similar fashion. Volk sort of exposed the gameplan you need to beat him, but even with his skills he was edged out.

I'm not saying charles wins lol. I'm just saying that I don't agree with the notion that strategy doesn't matter. Many of the best fighters like GSP, Jones, Volk, Mighty mouse, hell Islam himself, are well known for their ability to strategize. It isn't just coincidence that a lot of the best fighters are known for having good Fight IQ. Strategy matters, especially at the top level.

 

[Tweak896]

I'm not saying charles wins lol. I'm just saying that I don't agree with the notion that strategy doesn't matter. Many of the best fighters like GSP, Jones, Volk, Mighty mouse, hell Islam himself, are well known for their ability to strategize. It isn't just coincidence that a lot of the best fighters are known for having good Fight IQ. Strategy matters, especially at the top level.

Oh yes 100% strategy matters for most fighters. But I'm just saying for Olivera's strategy against Islam, I don't see what gameplan would even work besides aggressive early KO, so I'm saying no adjustment will matter in this matchup. Maybe if he could develop TDD? But I think in this matchup it's out of his wheelhouse.

 

[fortheo]

Oh yes 100% strategy matters for most fighters. But I'm just saying for Olivera's strategy against Islam, I don't see what gameplan would even work besides aggressive early KO, so I'm saying no adjustment will matter in this matchup. Maybe if he could develop TDD? But I think in this matchup it's out of his wheelhouse.

I mean, not looking to engage in the clinch with islam, not inviting guard, and not over extending on punches while out of range for starters. Islam is a slick counter striker on the backfoot, nasty in the clinch, and has excellent top game. Charles literally played into not one, but all of Islam's strengths. I can't think of much of a worse gameplan for charles than the one he used in the first fight to be honest.

So while a change in strategy might not get him the win, I'm pretty confident it will give him better chances than the first strategy he used.

 

[Tweak896]

I mean, not looking to engage in the clinch with islam, not inviting guard, and not over extending on punches while out of range for starters. Islam is a slick counter striker on the backfoot, nasty in the clinch, and has excellent top game. Charles literally played into not one, but all of Islam's strengths. I can't think of much of a worse gameplan for charles than the one he used in the first fight to be honest.

So while a change in strategy might not get him the win, I'm pretty confident it will give him better chances than the first strategy he used.

Hope you're right and we get a good back and forth fight!

 

[rjmbrd]

Islam will retire an all-time great and he's knocking at the door of GOAT status. Volk could beat many top 10 lightweights and some of them he would embarrass. It underlines how special Islam is.

It should go without saying he's a "bad matchup" for Charles because he is a bad matchup for everybody. A disciplined submission grappler who's become a world class MMA striker. His counters against Volk looked incredible - think about how hard it is to tag a guy that fast and mobile.

What Charles has going for him is he has legit show stopping power when he lands clean and he's one of the best finishers of this generation. Maybe the best? If you get in trouble, he can close the show. He's a live dog here, we just have to wait and see what adjustments he makes but his options are plentiful.