International Isis/syria/iraq thread

[Videer]

I just dont see a no fly zone happening. While Russian and Syrian air defenses could easily be suppressed and if need to be destroyed, escalation which always tends to provide unforseen consequences in a conflict with about zero vital US intrests just not going to happen (and no, I do not think for a second that Putin would be launching a first strike in even of a downed Russian plane or two) but they could easily strike elsewhere like targeting facilities around the ME by the Caspian Sea Flotilla. Nevermind that no one really gives a damn about Syria, hell parts of EU want to get rid of sanctions against Russia.

UAE HSV 2 Swift before the Houthi missile attack:

After:

 

[BBT13]

1) A no-fly zone is a military matter.

2) Like they did in Georgia and Ukraine?

3) Of course, and since they dont have plans, the US wont back them all the way through a confrontation with Russia.

You claim that the US must get involved because of the humanitarian cost, yet you are accepting that toppling Assad wont stop the fighting.

4) No, i dont consider them the same faction. But they are part of the uprising. You are making as simple as either Assad or the rebels, but the rebels are not a single group, a victory of Assad means the fighting is over, a victory for the rebels just means one man leaves the Royal Rumble ring, and the others will keep fighting.

5) Hillary is not an sunni arab supremacist like you, she already gets a shitload of flak because if Libya which is still in turmoil, she needs to profit from a Syrian opposition victory, and i certainly dont see what she can gain from it politically at all.

- Regarding your allegations of Russians attacking Georgia.

 

[whougonnacall]

1) What if Russia just ignores the no-fly threat and keeps bombing? shoot down their planes?

2) LOL so the US has a policy of allowing Russia to invade their neighbours? Bush Jr and Obama allowed Russia to invade Ukraine and Georgia when all it takes is as you put it, a phone call to Putin telling them that invasions will mean war?

3) Yes, just like in Libya and Iraq, these went perfectly once their dictators fell.

4) The US is a professional when it comes to ignoring warcrimes, it ignored Saddam warcrimes against Kurds, it ignored the Taliban warcrimes in Afghanistan, it ignored the Contras, the Guatemala warcrimes.

5) How does he shows that he has the back of dictators if he pulls out? how does failing to prevent the regime collapse shows his weapons are any good? and how does he ensures that the naval base lease will be respected? its far easier to drop a shitload of bombs on the rebels.

His economy is tanking but Syria isnt really being quite expensive, he is just dropping old bombs in there and flying old planes that would otherwise be collecting rust back home, im pretty sure that such bombings are also being excellent training for his pilots. And his weapons are all domestic, so its not like he is paying for them in US dollars.

6) See thats the crux of the issue, nobody wants to test the waters with Russia, because they have nukes, you cant tell if the Russians would use a tactical nuke on American bases in the middle east. Thats the issue with nukes, its not like one immediatly assumes that strategic bombs will be flying into cities. The first nuclear targets would be military from the losing side with the expectation that the nuclear warfare will remain tactical.

1) if they try do its either back down or shoot the first one down then from there its either ww3 or frantic diplomacy, apologies and promoses to work something out (the much much more likely option)

2)its been an obama policy of trying to treat russia as a reasonable ally plus in the case of the ukraine there hasnt been an normal overt invasion, russia has slowly escalatsd ,denied and distorted ..the infamous green men/no russians in ukraine etc

3)but they didnt HAVE to become fuck ups, in this case the damage is done
at this stage his insane desire to reconquer all of syria with foriegn firepower and manpower has to end before the patchwork militas on both sides can fight and work something out.

4)none of those were on primetime news every night

5)hes backed him to the hilt and defended him on multiple fronts military and diplomatic ..its not putins fault if whats left of the local militas cant get it done

6) that was the issue with all of the cold war brinkmanship
Putin is smart hes not going from 0 to 100 over anything , the idea his first response to anything is 'nuke em' is insane.

 

[whougonnacall]

I just dont see a no fly zone happening. While Russian and Syrian air defenses could easily be suppressed and if need to be destroyed, escalation which always tends to provide unforseen consequences in a conflict with about zero vital US intrests just not going to happen (and no, I do not think for a second that Putin would be launching a first strike in even of a downed Russian plane or two) but they could easily strike elsewhere like targeting facilities around the ME by the Caspian Sea Flotilla. Nevermind that no one really gives a damn about Syria, hell parts of EU want to get rid of sanctions against Russia.

UAE HSV 2 Swift before the Houthi missile attack:

After:

Yup thats why i said it was one extreme option available to a new prez
More likely as u described itl be escalating indirect one upmanship
Itl be interesting to see results of how obama goes forward on this.
Air strikes if they come could have a knock on effect or maybe putin will have another offer like his red line chem weapons deal.

 

[Squall Leonhart]

I know it is justification for military spending and all, but why can't we choose another target other than Russia?

The anti-Russia talk is coming everywhere from Hillary, Kaine, Pence....not Trump, though.

Why the fuck do we have to pick the one target that can vaporize us. Are these dumbasses this short-sighted as to villify the one place you don't want to really villify? It seems to defy logic. I feel like we are missing something here.

Like the US has some sort of missile shield in place that makes these politicians feel comfortable. Or that there is some sort of inside conversation going on between leaders on both sides. Something is very very fishy here.

I don't care how much you disagree with them...there is no option to go to war with Russia. No option.

 

[Squall Leonhart]

Didnt you posted an article where Kerry is looking for Russia cooperation just recently?

indeed I did however I see other sources saying that bombins of the administration is an idea that is gaining a bit of traction of late with Obama's cronies, though the man himself is said to feel no more inclined to attack than he ever was

 

[Rod1]

1) if they try do its either back down or shoot the first one down then from there its either ww3 or frantic diplomacy, apologies and promoses to work something out (the much much more likely option)

2)its been an obama policy of trying to treat russia as a reasonable ally plus in the case of the ukraine there hasnt been an normal overt invasion, russia has slowly escalatsd ,denied and distorted ..the infamous green men/no russians in ukraine etc

3)but they didnt HAVE to become fuck ups, in this case the damage is done
at this stage his insane desire to reconquer all of syria with foriegn firepower and manpower has to end before the patchwork militas on both sides can fight and work something out.

4)none of those were on primetime news every night

5)hes backed him to the hilt and defended him on multiple fronts military and diplomatic ..its not putins fault if whats left of the local militas cant get it done

6) that was the issue with all of the cold war brinkmanship
Putin is smart hes not going from 0 to 100 over anything , the idea his first response to anything is 'nuke em' is insane.

1) So shooting down Russian aircraft isnt war?

2) Syrian government invaded Russia, its not an overt invasion either. Bush Jr also didnt do squat when Georgia was being curbstomped.

3) Of course they didnt, but who was going to put their troops to ensure stability? nobody. Also i dont think you are hearing yourself out loud. You are accepting that the moderate rebels will simply continue to fight when Assad is gone.

4) Iran was also on primetime news for years and nothing happened.

5) That means squat if Russians abandon their base with the tail between their legs.

6) Putin is a smart man indeed, thats why he is going to call the game of chicken.

 

[Orgasmo]

Who wants to travel to Aleppo? I'm totally sold by this video produced by Syrian Ministry of Tourism. That music really goes along with the whole war thing.

 

[whougonnacall]

1) So shooting down Russian aircraft isnt war?

2) Syrian government invaded Russia, its not an overt invasion either. Bush Jr also didnt do squat when Georgia was being curbstomped.

3) Of course they didnt, but who was going to put their troops to ensure stability? nobody. Also i dont think you are hearing yourself out loud. You are accepting that the moderate rebels will simply continue to fight when Assad is gone.

4) Iran was also on primetime news for years and nothing happened.

5) That means squat if Russians abandon their base with the tail between their legs.

6) Putin is a smart man indeed, thats why he is going to call the game of chicken.

1) remind me again are turkey and russia at war? Nope
It could lead to war but prob wouldnt
All out war is mutual suucide thanks to nukes and a limited clash would just end in utter russian humiliation.

2)nor did he care again different circumstances

3)didnt have to require tropps in either case, its politics that have fucked up the aftermaths in those places not lack of troops

Yes and eventualy there will be some sort of stability, assads inevitable fall will speed that along.

4)but its massacres were barely spoken about or covered in such detail ,this is live and on every news network and all over the net

5)it def doesnt mean squat its achieved plenty, putinnis well aware that naval base wil either be lost or hel have to negotiate to keep

6) or back down given the disparity in tech .....feels like this is going in hypothetical circles now

 

[Squall Leonhart]

So the russian installations are in place and they have warned the US that they won't be able to distinguish fighters in the air. Also they say any attack on Syrian administration puts Russian servicemen in harm's way.

No way we attack now, right?

https://www.rt.com/news/361800-russia-syria-usa-aistrikes/

 

[Squall Leonhart]

Feeling twinges of horror

 

[Videer]

I propose sending in US (+token other western) troops to unite all the warring sides against one common enemy! Down with the crusaders!

 

[Squall Leonhart]

I propose sending in US (+token other western) troops to unite all the warring sides against one common enemy! Down with the crusaders!

gahhhhhhhhhhhh why so flippant

 

[Rod1]

1) remind me again are turkey and russia at war? Nope
It could lead to war but prob wouldnt
All out war is mutual suucide thanks to nukes and a limited clash would just end in utter russian humiliation.

2)nor did he care again different circumstances

3)didnt have to require tropps in either case, its politics that have fucked up the aftermaths in those places not lack of troops

Yes and eventualy there will be some sort of stability, assads inevitable fall will speed that along.

4)but its massacres were barely spoken about or covered in such detail ,this is live and on every news network and all over the net

5)it def doesnt mean squat its achieved plenty, putinnis well aware that naval base wil either be lost or hel have to negotiate to keep

6) or back down given the disparity in tech .....feels like this is going in hypothetical circles now

1) They are not certainly, because the Turks immediatly backtracked into submission once they felt the reality kicking in.

2) Again, the circumstances were Russians invading a sovereign country, so the justification to stop Russia actually existed. There is no justification to stop Russia when they are the ones being invited by the internationally recognized Syrian government.

3) See, for a crazy arab like you 10 years of sunni civil war arent really a bad thing since you know sunni arabs will win, but for the US administration they really dont want to commit unless there is going to be guarantee that there will be peace, otherwise they will get politically pounded like Hillary is being pounded for Libya.

4) Yes, but also there i coverage of the fuckups of Syria and Libya and Americans also believe that taking down Saddam and Gaddafi were mistakes.

5) Negotiate with who again? the rebels are not politically united.

6) Maybe, but who wants to play chicken with a nuclear power?

 

[whougonnacall]

1) They are not certainly, because the Turks immediatly backtracked into submission once they felt the reality kicking in.

2) Again, the circumstances were Russians invading a sovereign country, so the justification to stop Russia actually existed. There is no justification to stop Russia when they are the ones being invited by the internationally recognized Syrian government.

3) See, for a crazy arab like you 10 years of sunni civil war arent really a bad thing since you know sunni arabs will win, but for the US administration they really dont want to commit unless there is going to be guarantee that there will be peace, otherwise they will get politically pounded like Hillary is being pounded for Libya.

4) Yes, but also there i coverage of the fuckups of Syria and Libya and Americans also believe that taking down Saddam and Gaddafi were mistakes.

5) Negotiate with who again? the rebels are not politically united.

6) Maybe, but who wants to play chicken with a nuclear power?

1) by backtrack u mean ramped up arms to the turkmen rebels firing indirect grads at russian planes on runways, they worked out a deal
There was never any danger of an all out war , neither side wants to play the homesoil proxy game and they both had issues with the kurds....if they werent willing to go to war with turkey ( a country they can beat if not easily) then they arent gonna go to war with somewhere that can wipe the floor with them inside a week.

2)well bush had no real comeback for that after iraq esp given how georgia started
The current justification is the highly public war crimes they are commitng and the attention both domestic and international the administration is under to do something

3) for even a vodka soaked russkie like yourself though can see that has to be the endgame and the sooner we get to it the better
The alternative is a short term peace but that cant happen til the regime is at least brougt to heel if it violates that.

4) only the retarded ones do
Taking them down was the right option , its the fucking up the aftermath thats been the issue

5)we dont need them all to sit under one big sign saying rebels or regime militas ( who largely take orders from iran now anyway) to hammer out deals

6) because they arent gonna use their nukes....i know you russians like it when old creepy vlah portray's a macho image but he isnt suicidal nor does he want the humbling a short contained conventional war would be

 

[Rod1]

1) by backtrack u mean ramped up arms to the turkmen rebels firing indirect grads at russian planes on runways, they worked out a deal
There was never any danger of an all out war , neither side wants to play the homesoil proxy game and they both had issues with the kurds....if they werent willing to go to war with turkey ( a country they can beat if not easily) then they arent gonna go to war with somewhere that can wipe the floor with them inside a week.

2)well bush had no real comeback for that after iraq esp given how georgia started
The current justification is the highly public war crimes they are commitng and the attention both domestic and international the administration is under to do something

3) for even a vodka soaked russkie like yourself though can see that has to be the endgame and the sooner we get to it the better
The alternative is a short term peace but that cant happen til the regime is at least brougt to heel if it violates that.

4) only the retarded ones do
Taking them down was the right option , its the fucking up the aftermath thats been the issue

5)we dont need them all to sit under one big sign saying rebels or regime militas ( who largely take orders from iran now anyway) to hammer out deals

6) because they arent gonna use their nukes....i know you russians like it when old creepy vlah portray's a macho image but he isnt suicidal nor does he want the humbling a short contained conventional war would be

1) You mean when the Turks declared themselves friends of Russia after Russia bombed the Turkmen into oblivion and started giving MANPADS to Kurds who took down a Cobra with?

2) You said it yourself the iraq war made Americans war weary.

3) Thats not the endgame, not if Turkey, Russia and the Kurds manage to get a deal.

4) Fucking up how? by not holding their hands into having a functional society? Do you think that Sisi, Sauds, Hashemites, and other brutal autocrats must be sacked too?

5) Again, absolutely no guarantee, but like a good sly arab, you gotta say trust us, we wont stab you in the back right? the Russians would rather deal with the devil they know.

6) Thats one assertion that nobody wants to test the waters with.

 

[Squall Leonhart]

1) You mean when the Turks declared themselves friends of Russia after Russia bombed the Turkmen into oblivion and started giving MANPADS to Kurds who took down a Cobra with?

2) You said it yourself the iraq war made Americans war weary.

3) Thats not the endgame, not if Turkey, Russia and the Kurds manage to get a deal.

4) Fucking up how? by not holding their hands into having a functional society? Do you think that Sisi, Sauds, Hashemites, and other brutal autocrats must be sacked too?

5) Again, absolutely no guarantee, but like a good sly arab, you gotta say trust us, we wont stab you in the back right? the Russians would rather deal with the devil they know.

6) Thats one assertion that nobody wants to test the waters with.

How concerning is the whole thing?

 

[Rod1]

How concerning is the whole thing?

Its concerning because of the actors involved and because of the refugee crisis, the war had been going on since 2011 but nobody cared until ISIS invaded Iraq and then ISIS got curbstomped in Kobane and people didnt cared at all, until the Russians came in.

 

[Squall Leonhart]

Its concerning because of the actors involved and because of the refugee crisis, the war had been going on since 2011 but nobody cared until ISIS invaded Iraq and then ISIS got curbstomped in Kobane and people didnt cared at all, until the Russians came in.

I mean not so much from a human rights perspective, but I mean for escalation of further war

 

[Rod1]

I mean not so much from a human rights perspective, but I mean for escalation of further war

I dont think anybody is going to war over Syria, so i expect Americans to raise their voice but do nothing.