International Isis/syria/iraq thread

[FIMN]

Always interesting to read this thread - thanks everyone for contributing.

 

[Fronk]

I see the US-Russian deal as a continuation of the Russian attempt to cement the legitimacy of the Syrian goverment.
Starving "300.000" civilians in eastern Aleppo would bring way to much bad press. Already have we seen the campaign in western press to compare it to Srebrenica(though they forget the vast majority of civilians live in goverment held areas of the city). It doesn't open eastern Aleppo to free flow of fighters and weapons.

If the US is actually serious this time then it's a big win for Russia and the Syrian goverment by enforcing the demand for US-backed rebels to seperate themselves from Al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda is embedded on every single rebel front besides the turkish incursion. This is the big challenge of the deal. It would break up the most powerful rebel coalition for example. IMO it's completely unrealistic, TOW teams and Al-Qaeda go hand in hand. US-backed rebels have not been successful on their own since the southern front went dormant. The two recent succesful rebel offensives have been spearheaded by organisations that are designated as terrorists by the US. If the US actually begins to strike them it would turn the entire rebellion on its head.

 

[whougonnacall]

So
Syria air force drops bombs on idib marketplace....getting their civilian killing jollies in before peace deal kicks in

-southern front reactivates in quinetra making gains...lets see if they remember how to fight.

-'why assad cant win the war' russian based pro putin newspaper writes brutaly honest report about whats left of the regimes forces ..good read

 

[Fronk]

So
Syria air force drops bombs on idib marketplace....getting their civilian killing jollies in before peace deal kicks in

-southern front reactivates in quinetra making gains...lets see if they remember how to fight.

It's spearheaded by Nusra(AQ) and Ahrar Al-Sham(founded by AQ jihadist). It's more of an Islamic Front operation, that is supported by some FSA groups, towards local druze who are loyal to the goverment.

 

[whougonnacall]

It's spearheaded by Nusra(AQ) and Ahrar Al-Sham(founded by AQ jihadist). It's more of an Islamic Front operation, that is supported by some FSA groups, towards local druze who are loyal to the goverment.

6 brigades of fsa involved dude
Its hard to say if this is the southern front reactivating completely or them taking advantage of israels recent 2 strikes on hezbollah
They cant be happy about hezbollah increasing presence there.

 

[Fronk]

6 brigades of fsa involved dude
Its hard to say if this is the southern front reactivating completely or them taking advantage of israels recent 2 strikes on hezbollah
They cant be happy about hezbollah increasing presence there.

A brigade isn't really a brigade in Syria. The groups involved seems to be the ones who split from the other southern groups to create an operation room that operates around the Golan and southern Damascus. What is clear is that AQ-affiliates are the ones releasing the most media on it.

 

[whougonnacall]

A brigade isn't really a brigade in Syria. The groups involved seems to be the ones who split from the other southern groups to create an operation room that operates around the Golan and southern Damascus. What is clear is that AQ-affiliates are the ones releasing the most media on it.

The formerly aq linked ones have by far a superior pr machine though .go pro on troops and drones even


The fsas activity in daara will determine how all in they are
Right now with the northern fsa growing stronger and nursa set to be targeted they have a strong incentive to sit tight.
On the flipside they cant be publicy seen to be so self serving

 

[Videer]

Senior Ahrar al Sham member released their casualties so far: 7805 killed, 1045 permanently disabled and 120 pow.

 

[godking]

So
Syria air force drops bombs on idib marketplace....getting their civilian killing jollies in before peace deal kicks in

-southern front reactivates in quinetra making gains...lets see if they remember how to fight.

-'why assad cant win the war' russian based pro putin newspaper writes brutaly honest report about whats left of the regimes forces ..good read

I think its fair to say at this time that Assad is not going to be deposed.

He might not be able to win but the rebels are sure not in a position anymore to force a military solution.

 

[Orgasmo]

I wonder if the deal to target Al-Qaeda affiliates also include their Islamist partners. That would be the majority of Syrian rebels.

 

[whougonnacall]

I think its fair to say at this time that Assad is not going to be deposed.

He might not be able to win but the rebels are sure not in a position anymore to force a military solution.

Id say this war is way too fluid to state that.
Read the russian guys article or the recent war on the rocks one on the state of the pro regime militas..the long term prognosis is still terminal
He strikes me as too sharp to die like daffy though hel flee to iran or russia

 

[Rod1]

Senior Ahrar al Sham member released their casualties so far: 7805 killed, 1045 permanently disabled and 120 pow.

Source?

 

[Videer]

Source?

https://twitter.com/khaled85211

 

[Rod1]

https://twitter.com/khaled85211

Well, i dont speak arabic, but how legit is that, and why is the number so exact?

 

[godking]

Id say this war is way too fluid to state that.
Read the russian guys article or the recent war on the rocks one on the state of the pro regime militas..the long term prognosis is still terminal
He strikes me as too sharp to die like daffy though hel flee to iran or russia

Whatever the outcome the war is not going to last another two years max.

Most major players including the US are resigned to the fact thay Assad is not going anywhere fast.

Assad at this point essentially just has to sit tight and consolidate what he has left.

Other then a massive arial campaign by the west against the syrian goverment which will not happen while the russians are there. The rebels can,t force a military solution.

 

[whougonnacall]

Whatever the outcome the war is not going to last another two years max.

Most major players including the US are resigned to the fact thay Assad is not going anywhere fast.

Assad at this point essentially just has to sit tight and consolidate what he has left.

Other then a massive arial campaign by the west against the syrian goverment which will not happen while the russians are there. The rebels can,t force a military solution.

I wouldnt be so sure
The issue as many articles and campaigns have shown is airpower alone cannot determine a camapign esp when the ground force is crumbling so badly.

Russia is not there to defend him to the death (if anything it may be them that kills him if he doesnt remember his place) nor are they willing to engage the u.s in what would be a brief humiliating military 'clash' in the country should the new administration take a more agressive tone...putin knows better hes not stupid or crazy.

A western air campaign isnt even needed at this point , its only a matter of time at this stage

 

[whougonnacall]

So most rebels have given their awnser over the deal to divide them
Fsa Southern front to restart in daara as well as continue in queintra,
others take another town in hama ...maan (fortress city regime is making its stand in before hama city itself )now surrounded on 3 sides
and offensive in aleppo to begin on monday/tuesday time!

Other groups meeting over deal but most feel they will all jump where al sham do.

Turkey set to ramp up their operation too...big armoured push commung soon it seems

Odd rumour titbit about aleppo from regime side ,seems large iraqi milita forces deployed to replace palestenian one for reasons unknown

 

[whougonnacall]

According charles lister (good source on syria from rebel side)
At leaat 7 rebel groups are still talking including al sham(which hasnt officaly rejected the deal yet) and they have been approached by turkey with 'extra gurantees and incentives'
Rebels groups have apparentlu responded theyd want turkey to be on the proposed joint russia us panel that determines if targets are legit or not

Edit they have given 48hrs to respond to their concerns such as enforcement protocols (ie what happens regime side if they continue to block aid? Does russia bomb them?)
Meanwhile barrel bombs have hit homs,damascus and aleppo areas
Assad attends eid prayer service in bombed out daryaa...again says hel recapture all of syria lol ( seems hel fight to the last drop of iranian blood..wonder what the foriegners doing all his fighting for him think of his plans)

 

[carlos cadona]

ISIS has been pretty much cut off from foreign fighters now.
https://intelnews.org/2016/09/12/01-1975/

 

[MicroBrew]

I wonder if the deal to target Al-Qaeda affiliates also include their Islamist partners. That would be the majority of Syrian rebels.

If Hillary becomes president I don't think the US will target AQ-lite rebels. With Obama, not sure.

Hillary presidency = ethnic cleansing and genocide of non Sunnis and pro-Assad Sunnis.