Indiana GOP/Democratic Primaries

[Clippy]

Indiana is this Tuesday!

It seems Trump and Hillary are unstoppable now.

Cruz and Kasich decided to team up and have Cruz focus on Indiana while Kasick focuses on Nebraska and West Virginia to prevent Trump from getting all delegates and forcing a contested convention

but then Kasich told Indianers to still vote for him so .... horrible shaky alliance. This whole thing is a mess, Kasich is delusional and thinks a contested convention would get him the in, yeah right

 

[ShoelessRye]

If Trump wins Indiana the race is over and he is the GOP nominee so there is utter desperation from the establishment and Stop-Trump movement here. I think they'll pull out a very narrow win, but it's mostly WTA statewide so a narrow win is a big delegate win.

On the Dem side, I think Bernie is supposed to win here, probably by 3-4 points. Given all Dem primaries are proportional, he'll net about +3-4 delegates, and given he's down 300, it just makes his future climb more steep as he needs to win by 30 points the rest of the way to catch Hillary. So if he basically ties in Indiana he'll have to win the rest by 33-34 points now.

 

[Fawlty]

Indiana has an open primary, and is slightly less educated and poorer than its neighbors, and has more evangelicals. All of those factors nudge the favor toward Trump, especially with his momentum and the Cruz/Kasich laughably weak alliance (and the "basketball ring" comment) getting a lot of press. It's a state that does have to be looked at in a vacuum. The polling is a little shoddy but all of it so far favors Trump. Several analysts who are usually on top of their game handed Indiana to Cruz a long time ago, but without good reason. Just three days out from the primary, barring anything crazy happening, Trump is imo a big favorite to win, though it's slightly possible that Cruz's minions get something done on the ground and pull out a huge upset. I see Kasich doing poorly here as the race is polarizing between Trump and Cruz. That doesn't appear to be helping Cruz at all. I'm predicting 47%-36%-17%, and 51 delegates to 6 (30 of those being statewide WTA).

 

[Clippy]

(and the "basketball ring" comment) getting a lot of press.

Fill me in on the deets, I'm an outsider looking in.

Just a Canadian who doesn't want Trump to win as I fear WW3

 

[ShadowRun]

Fill me in on the deets, I'm an outsider looking in.

Just a Canadian who doesn't want Trump to win as I fear WW3

Besides Bernie I would say he wants the least amount of action overseas and if anyone thinks wars would start over insults is crazy.

 

[Clippy]

Besides Bernie I would say he wants the least amount of action overseas and if anyone thinks wars would start over insults is crazy.

I'm pretty sure Trump is the anti-christ, when he speaks my TV smokes and I see marks of the beast appear and my cats run away

Just sayin

 

[Fawlty]

Fill me in on the deets, I'm an outsider looking in.

Just a Canadian who doesn't want Trump to win as I fear WW3

Cruz embarrassed himself the other day by not knowing what to call a basketball hoop.

It's hard to say between Trump and Cruz who is actually worse. Trump is all over the place ideologically speaking, and his proposals are mostly insane, impossible proposals (he wants to impose a huge tariff on Mexico and China, for instance). But the fact that he's unpredictable, not loyal to the republicans, and known to lean left on a number of issues means that he might be a decent moderate in practice (or completely batshit crazy, who knows). Cruz on the other hand also has insane policies, like abolishing the tax collectors and every environmental, banking, education, and business oversight department. But his policies all align with the right- they are just extremist versions of our right wing's policies (the republicans say "small government," Cruz says "almost no government"). Both dudes are willing to start wars and want nuclear proliferation, so I think both are equally likely to start WW3. It's an interesting debate as to which one is scarier.

 

[Clippy]

Cruz embarrassed himself the other day by not knowing what to call a basketball hoop.

It's hard to say between Trump and Cruz who is actually worse. Trump is all over the place ideologically speaking, and his proposals are mostly insane, impossible proposals (he wants to impose a huge tariff on Mexico and China, for instance). But the fact that he's unpredictable, not loyal to the republicans, and known to lean left on a number of issues means that he might be a decent moderate in practice (or completely batshit crazy, who knows). Cruz on the other hand also has insane policies, like abolishing the tax collectors and every environmental, banking, education, and business oversight department. But his policies all align with the right- they are just extremist versions of our right wing's policies (the republicans say "small government," Cruz says "almost no government"). Both dudes are willing to start wars and want nuclear proliferation, so I think both are equally likely to start WW3. It's an interesting debate as to which one is scarier.

Scary stuff, hoping for a Democrat president! Even if we have to take Hillary

 

[in the]

Indiana polls are all over the place.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/gop_pres_primary/
One poll has Cruz crushing Trump, the others have Trump winning (some within the margin of error).

 

[Fawlty]

Indiana polls are all over the place.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/gop_pres_primary/
One poll has Cruz crushing Trump, the others have Trump winning (some within the margin of error).

At least one of those polls appears to have been by a company invented purely to do that poll. And the weird one with Cruz +16 is coming out of some allegedly nonpartisan little group at Purdue. These are terrible polls and I wouldn't put any confidence in the ones that aren't mainstream, but of course there's little to go on so it makes sense they are being published anyway. I believe there are also a few polls that still aren't being released. I'm not sure why that is, but I assume it's because they were paid for by interest groups who don't like the results.

 

[ShoelessRye]

Indiana polling is non-existent because State law requires live operators asking the questions and needless to say that cost a lot more money than robocalling so many of the usual player pollsters sit the State out. What you get in it's place is fly-by-night "pollsters" with agendas to fill the void and news papers/press cover them as legit because they are at least providing something they can report/cover.

Campaigns do internal polling, though Trump has said in the past he doesn't - he might or might not do any now, but Cruz certainly does and if he was up big or up at all he wouldn't have risked upsetting that with the Fiorina announcement. Announcing Carly was done to shake things up and hopefully help him so one has to believe his internal polling has him down and probably outside the MOE - hence the Hail Carly attempt.

 

[Fawlty]

Indiana polling is non-existent because State law requires live operators asking the questions and needless to say that cost a lot more money than robocalling so many of the usual player pollsters sit the State out. What you get in it's place is fly-by-night "pollsters" with agendas to fill the void and news papers/press cover them as legit because they are at least providing something they can report/cover.

Campaigns do internal polling, though Trump has said in the past he doesn't - he might or might not do any now, but Cruz certainly does and if he was up big or up at all he wouldn't have risked upsetting that with the Fiorina announcement. Announcing Carly was done to shake things up and hopefully help him so one has to believe his internal polling has him down and probably outside the MOE - hence the Hail Carly attempt.

Thanks for the info on IN polling, and I agree with your thoughts about the Carly announcement.

 

[M3t4tr0n]

I'm pretty sure Trump is the anti-christ, when he speaks my TV smokes and I see marks of the beast appear and my cats run away

Just sayin

 

[GearSolidMetal]

IN is the first primary in a while that both candidates are going in blind. Polling data is all over the place.

It's pretty odd that polling data prior to NY had Cruz up by 9 points, then the last two weeks happened, and suddenly Trump is up by 6. That's a hellofa swing just based off momentum from a few victories in the northeast. But as previously stated, the polls aren't exactly reliable.

One trend of this election cycle has been the voters have rejected the media's manipulations of trying to get the public to support one candidate and reject another. Previously, the negative press has been aimed at Trump, but lately, it's been aimed at Cruz.

Everything Cruz has said or done has been labeled 'desperate' by the media, and they've parroted 'collusion' just like Trump did 6 times within 30 seconds in a speech when responding to the supposed 'Cruz-Kasich' alliance.

But for the first time, ever, Cruz has been getting more free press than Trump. It's negative press, but it's press, and negative press hasn't had a negative effect on Trump. Actually, his numbers grew because of the negative stories about him. Now, the same could happen to Cruz.

The voters have had a 'Fuck You' attitude toward the media's coverage. Perhaps voters are getting suspicious of the embrace of the media's coverage of Trump, and the shunning of Cruz.

Even Fox News, the 'Fair and Balanced' network, has been running with the Pro-Trump narriative so much, all of their hosts are either Pro-Trump or indifferent. Even Megyn Kelly has been very fair towards Trump since their 'secret meeting' at Trump Tower. The guests on every show, both Republican and Democrat, have been slamming Cruz.

As far as Cruz's effort in Indiana, he's trying to get their vote. Very hard. He announced his VP pick, got the governor to 'endorce' him, and the comments of one of the most hated members of the GOPe, John Boehner, having very unpleasant words towards Cruz, couldn't have come at a better time.

However, it's unknown how much the narriative of the 'collusion' of the Cruz-Kasich alliance, and Trump's endorcement by that College Basketball coach, hurt Cruz in the state.

As an objective Cruz supporter, I wouldn't bet money on the results. But I wouldn't be surprised if Cruz pulls it out. If Cruz wins by 5 points or over, that'll make the media's collective head spin. If Cruz wins by 16, as that poll predicts, expect the athiests in the media to take a holy shit in their pants.

But, I'll concede that the media is right on one thing. If Cruz loses, he's done.

 

[Fawlty]

Bad news for Cruz fans, good news for Trump fans. Two reputable polls were released showing his lead to be double digits. Normally I wouldn't put much stock in polls released so close to an election, but with the open primary and the lack of data coming out of Indiana, it's probably telling.

 

[Culombo]

:facepalm: was voting for trump and clinton .. trump's box was left blank though .. should be 10-9 trump

 

[UpaLoompa]

Trump is all over the place ideologically speaking, and his proposals are mostly insane, impossible proposals (he wants to impose a huge tariff on Mexico and China, for instance). But the fact that he's unpredictable, not loyal to the republicans, and known to lean left on a number of issues means that he might be a decent moderate in practice (or completely batshit crazy, who knows).

Trump's nativism is the area where he's really quite awful. Otherwise, because like you say Trump is all over the place, Cruz is far worse in terms of policy.

 

[UpaLoompa]

Everything Cruz has said or done has been labeled 'desperate' by the media, and they've parroted 'collusion' just like Trump did 6 times within 30 seconds in a speech when responding to the supposed 'Cruz-Kasich' alliance.

You never did return to that one thread to explain how Cruz picking Fiorinni (sp) as his "VP" was a "game changer" (your words). Given that Cruz cannot win on the first ballot and a second ballot is increasingly unlikely, how was that little stunt not transparently desperate?

 

[Fawlty]

Trump's nativism is the area where he's really quite awful. Otherwise, because like you say Trump is all over the place, Cruz is far worse in terms of policy.

Yeah Cruz is a very well known quantity of crap. There is still the problem that Trump's worst case presidency is catastrophic- nuclear proliferation in particular. But if he does tone down the exceptionalism and nativism etc, and the anti-trade ideas- and actually listen to an economist, there's some hope for a lot of cooperation and a reinvention of moderate republicanism. I won't get my hopes up though.

 

[Supernaut]

Clinton and Trump.