In Hindsight, does anyone really believe Tony would have beat Khabib?

[YourBoss]

Whenever Gaethje took deep breaths in between his hard shots is normally the time Tony puts the screws on. But for some reason he couldnt put his foot on the gas. I suspect it was the 2 weight cuts. Weight cutting kills your cardio. Tonys main strength is his cardio. So he lost his main weapon. I think with a proper 8 week camp and a single weight cut Tony would have had a decent chance to beat Gaethje who anyway is a bad stylistic matchup for Ferguson. I had it 60/40 Khabib. Now its 80/20, but only because Tony took all that damage. If this fight doesnt have a lasting effect on him, i think its till 60/40.

 

[TheAmericanGazelle]

I pretty much ignore any MMA opinion about specific fights that a) runs wildly contrary to basic fight analysis, and b) where the speaker of said opinion isn't willing to lay down real money on a real bet backing his opinion.

I don't believe the wrestling+ground grappling would be nearly as competitive as his fanbase generally believed (believes?), and that would be where the fight would be overwhelmingly likely to take place.

 

[arcadeperfect]

Khabib wouldn't fight Tony the same way Gaethje did so this question is irrelevant. Styles make fights.

 

[Gmork]

Not emotional at all pal. And, No, Tony may be a more versatile striker, but he is not technically better. Khabib's striking is getting really good these days.

His footwork is also excellent, and is able to get out of the way, and move around the ring going backward (sideways) or forward than most people realize.

Tony's defense on the ground would be no match for Khabib's offense. I don't think there is anyone who can pass a guard more quickly, smoothly, and more decisively than Khabib Nurmagomedov.

If Khabib achieved side control of the flimsy Tony, and he would every round it lasted, he would proceed to ground and pound him senseless or to a stoppage.

You're making a lot of assumptions there about things you can't possibly know. We've never seen Khabib up against a guy that had a strong BJJ game, or offense from the bottom, and confidently engaged him from there. You don't know what would happen.

Tony is a much better stand up fighter than Khabib, though. Khabib is awkward and rudimentary. It's served him okay so far, but he's never been on his feet with a decent striker that wasn't already gassed and beat up.

 

[Agnawedbone]

Definitely. Still do.

Styles make fights, and I wasn't surprised Gaethje proved to be such a tough opponent for him. Just thought it was going to end a little faster.

 

[Palani]

Tony would have beat him, yes.
It's about matchups. Not about Tony vs Justin.
Tony is a bad matchup for him.

 

[Mahkor]

Yes.

 

[poor form]

I gave Tony about a 20% chance of beating Khabib. This whole praying for a Dr. stoppage due to cuts. Just seems like no plan at all.

The same way Tony didn’t seem to have a plan for Justin.

Nothing personal, and no slight on Tony.

 

[Seiryoku Zenyo]

He got a chance. And we thought about that. But now, after the Gaethje fight, sherdoggers "know" he doesn't had a chance...

 

[Isaiah095]

What made the fight intriguing is Tony's guard, scramble abilities and elbows from the bottom. The Gaethje fight showed none of that, so it's not really relevant to assess how the Khabib fight would have gone, and I say that as someone who thinks that Khabib would have won.

/thread

 

[xhaydenx]

What made the fight intriguing is Tony's guard, scramble abilities and elbows from the bottom.

Everyone says this, but I don't think so at all.

Tony has hurt people in his guard because they end up laying in his guard. Lee was gassed and sick and just paying on top of him. It's very easy to elbow the top of the head in this position, and subs are obviously available.

But Khabib doesn't grapple like this. He doesn't lay on top of people. If he's in half-guard, then he's always posturing up and hitting you while trying to advance. You can't land elbows on a postured up opponent when you're still being pinned down.

Likewise, Khabib doesn't lay in your closed guard. Ever. He doesn't even maintain a postured guard. He always stands up in a stacked guard and does his GNP from there. Again, you can't land elbows from the bottom here because you're too far away from him. Submissions are way harder from here as well. You're not getting a triangle or a guillotine. Most you can hope for, other than trying to roll for the legs, is to try and catch a strike and turn it into an armbar, which is still fucking hard when you've got someone like Khabib stacked on you and throwing hammers non-stop.

I think Tony would have beaten Khabib on the feet, but Khabib was never going to just stand with him.

Khabib would have destroyed him in my opinion.

 

[Dana's Moonface]

No fucking chance lol

Always said khabib was on another level

 

[Alphakennybody20]

Bad matchup for Khabib, He doesn't have the power or boxing to neutralize tony's non stop aggressive striking.

Tony has crazy power too, he hit Gaethje cleanly one time and almost sent him to heaven, that surprised me a lot.

If he catches khabib like that who knows.

Tony's ground game would also be the best Khabib's ever faced, so it would've definitely been a fun fight.

 

[Gabicho]

None.
Tony was dominated by Michael Johnson on the ground.
Other than a fluke strike, Tony had even less chances than Connor